La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[Stebo]

22 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

When was the last 90 day wire to wire cold 40 N ever had ? 

Strong jets do like to buckle , so as with most events here,  cold is going to be transient. 

I think that jet eventually buckles.

You are probably not sustaining that jet all winter. 

But there's so sustained warmth like last year. 

I don't look at 2 M anomalies in Manitoba , whats plus 2 SD there is BN with a good 500.

So Canada is warm for their standards,  not ours... check out the 2m temps by day 5 , 10 , 15.

The guidance continues to want to build the heights in the Arctic and a -AO is here.

I have worked with split flows before 93/94 and when I see the jet cutting underneath higher heights I get giddy for N of 80.

09/10 was a great winter here , it doesn't have to be frigid. Just cold enough. 

I think December is BN. I like what I am seeing. 

 

 

You are using the idea that it buckles, the problem is that gradient isn't going anywhere, so the expectation that it buckles isn't going to come true if that gradient remains that strong. You keep saying what is warm in Canada isn't warm here, which is true but air moderates as it comes south especially over land that has no snow cover. If Canada remains cold the air will moderate if it comes south, and that is assuming it comes south and not out of the west. The tweets that DT sent out that Snowman19 posted are valid, until the polar vortex moves we will have sustained warmth in Canada and sustained cold in Siberia. Think 2011-12.

[snowman19]

We are seeing transient pattern disruptions not a full scale pattern change. There is no pattern change yet. This weekend into early next week for example is just a storm induced disruption to the overall warm pattern. I would call them cool snaps since the true cold arctic air is on the other side of the pole. Also, -AO does not automatically mean cold in the east. We could very easily see strong -AO and a continued screaming Pacific jet torching Canada with the arctic staying right where it is now in Eurasia 

[PB GFI]

18 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You are using the idea that it buckles, the problem is that gradient isn't going anywhere, so the expectation that it buckles isn't going to come true if that gradient remains that strong. You keep saying what is warm in Canada isn't warm here, which is true but air moderates as it comes south especially over land that has no snow cover. If Canada remains cold the air will moderate if it comes south, and that is assuming it comes south and not out of the west. The tweets that DT sent out that Snowman19 posted are valid, until the polar vortex moves we will have sustained warmth in Canada and sustained cold in Siberia. Think 2011-12.

 

You may want to check out the November 2011 SST s 

 

About as flipped as can be , as will the 2 winters. 

 

I would use 11/12  as an antilog

 

Again,  people confuse  what a good 500 mb patterns with well it's not  " Eurasia " and it's not frigid .

We will never be Siberia  you will never see those sustained anomalies here.  It doesn't have to be frigid for it to be BN and snow .

There is enough high latitude blocking that will allow the colder anomalies to come through the ridge position. 

Ask yourself,  on balance most of the following  days 5 thru 15 are likely BN,  where did that air come from if Canada is torched ? 

It comes through the ridging guys and when you spin the trough into the MA,  cold air will sink too it .

What is 20 degrees in Manitoba is + 10 there , it moderates to N to BN here in a good 500

 

Not frigid, but not a torch 

2011 2012 not on my radar boys. 

 

 

[Stebo]

17 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

You may want to check out the November 2011 SST s 

 

About as flipped as can be , as will the 2 winters. 

 

I would use 11/12  as an anthology.

 

Again,  people confuse  what a good 500 mb patterns with well it's not  " Eurasia " and it's not frigid .

We will never be Siberia  you will never see those sustained anomalies here.  It doesn't have to be frigid for it to be BN and snow .

There is enough high latitude blocking that will allow the colder anomalies to come through the ridge position. 

Ask yourself,  on balance most of the following  days 5 thru 15 are likely BN,  where did that air come from if Canada is torched ? 

It comes through the ridging guys and when you spin the trough into the MA,  cold air will sink too it .

What is 20 degrees in Manitoba is + 10 there , it moderates to N to BN here in a good 500

 

Not frigid, but not a torch 

2011 2012 not on my radar boys. 

 

 

You are still doing it, you keep pointing to anomalies in Canada as still being cold. It just doesn't work that way, air moderates as it comes into USA especially with no snow cover. Furthermore if the pattern is zonal with a strong Pacific Jet you will be looking for thread the needle type events all year.

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

You are still doing it, you keep pointing to anomalies in Canada as still being cold. It just doesn't work that way, air moderates as it comes into USA especially with no snow cover. Furthermore if the pattern is zonal with a strong Pacific Jet you will be looking for thread the needle type events all year.

Trust me I know this works,  really. 

I said the anomalies in Canada are AN not BN , they become colder against the norms when they get here fast enough. 

 

You keep missing that there is snow cover in Canada,  the upper mid west next week as well as the interior NE.

You keep missing the significance of higher heights at 500 over Hudson Bay or west that air gets through the lakes " fast enough " so the moderation is slowed.

 

Where is these BN anomalies coming from day 5 thru 15 ? 

The Jet is roaring,  Canada has " no snow cover "  and it's moderating  ! 

The reason is  , you are sticking lower heights under higher ones and when that shows up it shunts the warmups.

Go back and look at Dec 2010 500hpa winds then look at what happened at 500 with blocking over the top .

This is not 2011 2012.

 

 

[JoMo]

12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You are still doing it, you keep pointing to anomalies in Canada as still being cold. It just doesn't work that way, air moderates as it comes into USA especially with no snow cover. Furthermore if the pattern is zonal with a strong Pacific Jet you will be looking for thread the needle type events all year.

-10 air that is +5 in Canada compared to normal that is forced south is still -cold compared to normal in the US. 

[Stebo]

56 minutes ago, JoMo said:

-10 air that is +5 in Canada compared to normal that is forced south is still -cold compared to normal in the US. 

Not if it moderates, there needs to be a snowpack else that -10c air that is +5 doesn't stay -10c. We have seen this over and over, think of models being overaggressive on early season cold shots only to back off, it is under the same principle.

[snowman19]

Just now, Stebo said:

Not if it moderates, there needs to be a snowpack else that -10c air that is +5 doesn't stay -10c. We have seen this over and over, think of models being overaggressive on early season cold shots only to back off, it is under the same principle.

These depicted 'cold' outbreaks keep moderating over and over as we get closer. Zonal and semizonal flow from the Pacific is basically just a chinook wind across the CONUS. Until we get true cross polar flow the folks calling for major pattern changes and arctic cold snaps will continue to be wrong and I'm not saying this is going on here because it's not but what we are seeing are storm induced temporary disruptions in a sea of warmth

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

Trust me I know this works,  really. 

I said the anomalies in Canada are AN not BN , they become colder against the norms when they get here fast enough. 

 

You keep missing that there is snow cover in Canada,  the upper mid west next week as well as the interior NE.

You keep missing the significance of higher heights at 500 over Hudson Bay or west that air gets through the lakes " fast enough " so the moderation is slowed.

 

Where is these BN anomalies coming from day 5 thru 15 ? 

The Jet is roaring,  Canada has " no snow cover "  and it's moderating  ! 

The reason is  , you are sticking lower heights under higher ones and when that shows up it shunts the warmups.

Go back and look at Dec 2010 500hpa winds then look at what happened at 500 with blocking over the top .

This is not 2011 2012.

 

 

The cold air comes in behind the system that comes through this weekend. It is a thread the needle type event. I don't know how else to explain this to you, until there is a sustained snow pack to the north it doesn't matter how fast the air gets here, it will not be sustained cold. You keep arguing one time instances as a long time thing. Finally I am not saying this year is 11-12, I said that several times but it falls on deaf ears I guess. What I am saying is if the major cold gets stuck on the other side of the globe and the Pac jet continues to be strong, there is a chance of having a very warm outcome especially if the NAO/AO don't cooperate. I am done trying to explain this because I feel like I am jamming a square peg in a round hole here.

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The cold air comes in behind the system that comes through this weekend. It is a thread the needle type event. I don't know how else to explain this to you, until there is a sustained snow pack to the north it doesn't matter how fast the air gets here, it will not be sustained cold. You keep arguing one time instances as a long time thing. Finally I am not saying this year is 11-12, I said that several times but it falls on deaf ears I guess. What I am saying is if the major cold gets stuck on the other side of the globe and the Pac jet continues to be strong, there is a chance of having a very warm outcome especially if the NAO/AO don't cooperate. I am done trying to explain this because I feel like I am jamming a square peg in a round hole here.

 

Dude,  I'm not being a dck,  but I have a really good understanding and have  really good track record in here. 

I am forecasting a -AO and part of it is because of the intense cold in Asia that is partly due to the record early snows .

The cold that is coming is not a thread the needle event it's a result of the entire pressure field reversal in Canada and delivered because the trough develops in the east in the means being stuck under ridging. 

 I think the jet weakens and does not stay in this state and some of those anomalies will spill over the top in Dec and get forced South 

Just look at where Alaska and W Canada at 2 M go over the next 15 days. 

So we differ , nothing more.

[Stebo]

12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Dude,  I'm not being a dck,  but I have a really good understanding and have  really good track record in here. 

I am forecasting a -AO and part of it is because of the intense cold in Asia that is partly due to the record early snows .

The cold that is coming is not a thread the needle event it's a result of the entire pressure field reversal in Canada and delivered because the trough develops in the east in the means being stuck under ridging. 

 I think the jet weakens and does not stay in this state and some of those anomalies will spill over the top in Dec and get forced South 

Just look at where Alaska and W Canada at 2 M go over the next 15 days. 

So we differ , nothing more.

I have a really good understanding as well, and yes forecasting a -AO would work, but that isn't 100% fool proof. A -AO could mean that the polar vortex drops into Siberia like it is forecast with this current AO dip. The trough in the east is formed out of the storm we get late this week that pulls down a piece of the Arctic air because of its strength out by the lakes.

You have way more confidence than I do, of a whole sale change in the Pacific, I see nothing to fundamentally change that gradient out there that is forcing the strong Pacific jet. As for Alaska it will cool but western Canada especially east of the Rockies looks to warm significantly, that will burn off a large portion of the snow cover that comes with weekend. That isn't a favorable pattern for cold coming from Canada. You want the winds coming down the side of the Rockies, not across them.

[packbacker]

Pac still ain't great but atlantic will be improved in the midterm resulting in some sizeable snows for the interior NE and SE Canada.  Also a big upper/midwest snows .  Agree the PV over Russia in the near/mid term isn't ideal for deep cold.  But, for the people that want Dec cold you have to like where the models are trying to build a ridge into the aluetians.  The warm winters all had it in the GOA or just south. If that ridge sets up south GOA you can wake me come spring.

 

[PB GFI]

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

I have a really good understanding as well, and yes forecasting a -AO would work, but that isn't 100% fool proof. A -AO could mean that the polar vortex drops into Siberia like it is forecast with this current AO dip. The trough in the east is formed out of the storm we get late this week that pulls down a piece of the Arctic air because of its strength out by the lakes.

You have way more confidence than I do, of a whole sale change in the Pacific, I see nothing to fundamentally change that gradient out there that is forcing the strong Pacific jet. As for Alaska it will cool but western Canada especially east of the Rockies looks to warm significantly, that will burn off a large portion of the snow cover that comes with weekend. That isn't a favorable pattern for cold coming from Canada. You want the winds coming down the side of the Rockies, not across them.

 

I am more confident winter wise  from the upper Midwest Great lakes interior NE and so far just December for me .

After that I lose my visibility. 

If I bust it will not be my first 

 

[Isotherm]

48 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You have way more confidence than I do, of a whole sale change in the Pacific, I see nothing to fundamentally change that gradient out there that is forcing the strong Pacific jet. As for Alaska it will cool but western Canada especially east of the Rockies looks to warm significantly, that will burn off a large portion of the snow cover that comes with weekend. That isn't a favorable pattern for cold coming from Canada. You want the winds coming down the side of the Rockies, not across them.

 

Generally agree. Check out my winter outlook in which I explain precisely what you allude to regarding the latitudinal thermal gradient in the Pacific sea surface temperatures, adding momentum to the jet. The stratosphere is indisputably conducive for tropospheric high latitude blocking right now, but I think December will begin w/ a pattern not entirely dissimilar from 2012 due to the highly retracted regime / low geopotential heights in the W US. Until we can either build a poleward Aleutian ridge (ala 2010, but I also discuss in my outlook why I think it will be difficult this year), or retrograde the W US trough offshore, achieving sustained/protracted colder than normal in the East will be tough. I do think eventually the pattern evolves such that the East has some windows of opportunity, particularly as we get deeper into December. However, even still, I went with near normal temperatures for December as even w/ my expectation for a -NAO/AO December, the Pacific will be an issue. Either way, I think the first half of winter is the period during which we (East coast) must capitalize, before (IMO) the AO and particularly NAO become less conducive.

[Stebo]

40 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Generally agree. Check out my winter outlook in which I explain precisely what you allude to regarding the latitudinal thermal gradient in the Pacific sea surface temperatures, adding momentum to the jet. The stratosphere is indisputably conducive for tropospheric high latitude blocking right now, but I think December will begin w/ a pattern not entirely dissimilar from 2012 due to the highly retracted regime / low geopotential heights in the W US. Until we can either build a poleward Aleutian ridge (ala 2010, but I also discuss in my outlook why I think it will be difficult this year), or retrograde the W US trough offshore, achieving sustained/protracted colder than normal in the East will be tough. I do think eventually the pattern evolves such that the East has some windows of opportunity, particularly as we get deeper into December. However, even still, I went with near normal temperatures for December as even w/ my expectation for a -NAO/AO December, the Pacific will be an issue. Either way, I think the first half of winter is the period during which we (East coast) must capitalize, before (IMO) the AO and particularly NAO become less conducive.

Yeah your outlook was very good, alot of it I agreed with. I take it you are expecting a big severe season next spring too with your analogs.

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are seeing transient pattern disruptions not a full scale pattern change. There is no pattern change yet. This weekend into early next week for example is just a storm induced disruption to the overall warm pattern. I would call them cool snaps since the true cold arctic air is on the other side of the pole. Also, -AO does not automatically mean cold in the east. We could very easily see strong -AO and a continued screaming Pacific jet torching Canada with the arctic staying right where it is now in Eurasia 

In December maybe but it becomes progressively harder to have a persistently mild or snow hostile pattern through January and certainly February if the AO is consistently negative 

[snowman19]

The new JAMSTEC is in FWIW. Been consistent with the same forecast for 4 runs in a row now:

[PB GFI]

10 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Generally agree. Check out my winter outlook in which I explain precisely what you allude to regarding the latitudinal thermal gradient in the Pacific sea surface temperatures, adding momentum to the jet. The stratosphere is indisputably conducive for tropospheric high latitude blocking right now, but I think December will begin w/ a pattern not entirely dissimilar from 2012 due to the highly retracted regime / low geopotential heights in the W US. Until we can either build a poleward Aleutian ridge (ala 2010, but I also discuss in my outlook why I think it will be difficult this year), or retrograde the W US trough offshore, achieving sustained/protracted colder than normal in the East will be tough. I do think eventually the pattern evolves such that the East has some windows of opportunity, particularly as we get deeper into December. However, even still, I went with near normal temperatures for December as even w/ my expectation for a -NAO/AO December, the Pacific will be an issue. Either way, I think the first half of winter is the period during which we (East coast) must capitalize, before (IMO) the AO and particularly NAO become less conducive.

 

It's been my position that the pattern would change mid month at 500 , it now  looks like  its the 20th and runs into December. 

December is my coldest month of the 3 .  I see you are N , I am  just colder for that 1 month .

My argument is the-AO/NAO will be present in December and it will force enough cold air underneath. 

I am not cold in January ( its cohens coldest month ) and I am inclined to think we end pretty early. So I like the front loaded part of your forecast as well .

 

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

It's been my position that the pattern would change mid month at 500 , it now  looks like  its the 20th and runs into December. 

December is my coldest month of the 3 .  I see you are N , I am  just colder for that 1 month .

My argument is the-AO/NAO will be present in December and it will force enough cold air underneath. 

I am not cold in January ( its cohens coldest month ) and I am inclined to think we end pretty early. So I like the front loaded part of your forecast as well .

 

I am not buying any sustained -NAO, Canada is running anywhere from 15 to 45 degrees above normal and the cold air is locked on the other side of the globe.  I like +2 to +4 for December which doesn't mean we can't thread the needle for a snow event...but that would be an anomaly in an overall warm pac driven pattern. 

    

[EastonSN+]

I like reading all of the commentary and am learning a lot. Question- there is a lot of references to 11/12 where the pattern stayed throughout the entire winter season. Why does that have to apply here in a definate sense? Havnt we had winters in the past that flipped from one dominating pattern to another? What would stop the pv from moving to this side if the globe at so e point? Why does the current pattern HAVE to remain static?

[PB GFI]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I am not buying any sustained -NAO, Canada is running anywhere from 15 to 45 degrees above normal and the cold air is locked on the other side of the globe.  I like +2 to +4 for December which doesn't mean we can't thread the needle for a snow event...but that would be an anomaly in an overall warm pac driven pattern. 

    

 

The skill is at 500 . Go look at the 6z GEFS at 2M day 10 12 15 , look at the actual temps .

Cold right / Canada and crossing South into the CONUS. 

Now look at the anomalies,  all RED...

What is + 2 or 3 SD AN in Central and Eastern  Canada is BN if it gets here fast enough .

Don't look at the departures from N in Canada,  the skill is at 500 and how fast  you get it as well if there is snow cover so the moderation is slightly  muted .

Sustained-AO -NAO week 4 November into mid / late December. 

I am BN in December.  We will see 

[Dsnowx53]

15 hours ago, packbacker said:

Pac still ain't great but atlantic will be improved in the midterm resulting in some sizeable snows for the interior NE and SE Canada.  Also a big upper/midwest snows .  Agree the PV over Russia in the near/mid term isn't ideal for deep cold.  But, for the people that want Dec cold you have to like where the models are trying to build a ridge into the aluetians.  The warm winters all had it in the GOA or just south. If that ridge sets up south GOA you can wake me come spring.

 

 

This is a good post. We don't need a complete overhaul in the Pacific if we can get some Aleutian ridging and good Arctic and North Atlantic blocking. We can't have the SAME Pacific as we do now, but if we can just get it to halt a bit with a -AAM and more Aleutian ridging, then the -NAO and -AO could be enough to send somewhat cold -- though not Arctic -- airmasses into the East which should be enough for some snow chances.

 

For a major Arctic outbreak we definitely need more changes in the Pacific. But for below average temperatures and some snow threats, I think we just need it to back off a bit and let the -AO and -NAO do the work. 

[Dsnowx53]

Not saying this is an analog, but here is a PAC pattern not exactly conducive for major east cold, plus an anomalous PAC Jet crashing into the US, but it still worked due to the -AO and -NAO. The PAC is hostile here, but it's backed off just a bit from what we have now.

 

 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Dsnowx53 said:

Not saying this is an analog, but here is a PAC pattern not exactly conducive for major east cold, plus an anomalous PAC Jet crashing into the US, but it still worked due to the -AO and -NAO. The PAC is hostile here, but it's backed off just a bit from what we have now.

 

 

The problem is, I don't see a favorable pattern for prolonged -NAO at this time. If that were to happen and we did get -NAO then it would be one of the thread the needle situations I mentioned yesterday. However if it ends up +NAO then expect a blowtorch.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

This is a good post. We don't need a complete overhaul in the Pacific if we can get some Aleutian ridging and good Arctic and North Atlantic blocking. We can't have the SAME Pacific as we do now, but if we can just get it to halt a bit with a -AAM and more Aleutian ridging, then the -NAO and -AO could be enough to send somewhat cold -- though not Arctic -- airmasses into the East which should be enough for some snow chances.

 

For a major Arctic outbreak we definitely need more changes in the Pacific. But for below average temperatures and some snow threats, I think we just need it to back off a bit and let the -AO and -NAO do the work.

Exactly what I was alluding to yesterday. Thank you for confirming my point more

Realistically we might need a cross polar flow to get something major this year unless things fundamentially change soon. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Exactly what I was alluding to yesterday. Thank you for confirming my point more

Realistically we might need a cross polar flow to get something major this year unless things fundamentially change soon. 

I agree. If folks are looking for arctic cold here we are going to need prolonged cross polar flow. Agree too about the NAO. I don't see much prolonged -NAO this winter. The AO may be a different story early on at least but I can certainly see a close to neutral average AO for this winter when December to March is all added up

[PB GFI]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. If folks are looking for arctic cold here we are going to need prolonged cross polar flow. Agree too about the NAO. I don't see much prolonged -NAO this winter. The AO may be a different story early on at least but I can certainly see a close to neutral average AO for this winter when December to March is all added up

 

No one is looking for Arctic air 

 Looking for 09/10 , 93/94

 

Just cold enough with a great 500.

That starts on day 10 , the question is , does it last 5 10 or 30 days .

-AO winter 

-NAO December 

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No one is looking for Arctic air 

 Looking for 09/10. 93/94

 

Just cold enough with a great 500.

That starts on day 10 , the question is , does it last 5 10 or 30 days .

-AO winter 

-NAO December 

Yeah I would take some wet snow events and snow events where temps are in the upper 20s. The blizzard last winter temps were stuck at 27 the whole storm til the very end

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No one is looking for Arctic air 

 Looking for 09/10. 93/94

 

Just cold enough with a great 500.

That starts on day 10 , the question is , does it last 5 10 or 30 days .

-AO winter 

-NAO December 

That's why I said IF you are looking for arctic cold. A -AO December? Possibly but December through March? I doubt it but I can see a neutral average overall. I am pretty confident in a +NAO winter though as well as -PNA

[dmillz25]

There is a nice dome of high pressure in siberia that may have a say if something comes along and disturbs it from the stratosphere