La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[CIK62]

Some La Nina basics in this article:

http://www.aol.com/article/weather/2016/11/12/la-nina-has-officially-arrived/21604533/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl6|sec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D-74610507_htmlws-sb-bb

[snowman19]

The new JMA has flipped to a mild winter. It was one of the last holdouts showing a cold winter after the Euro went warm: 

Another bad sign, not only is the blob long gone, the Gulf of Alaska is going cold: 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It has a solid -AO throughout the entire winter. But the Pacific Jet is unfavorable and results an Western Trough, Eastern Ridge pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That pattern isn't a complete deal breaker for NYC, but anyone south of NYC would really be in trouble. It is however a great pattern for out this way.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It has a solid -AO throughout the entire winter. But the Pacific Jet is unfavorable and results an Western Trough, Eastern Ridge pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It shows what happens when you have a hostile Pacific despite a solid -AO. -AO doesn't always equal cold

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +0.4 (+0.4)

Nino 3: -0.4 (+0.2)

Nino 3.4: -0.7 (+0.1)

Nino 4: -0.5 (+0.1)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[packbacker]

On 11/13/2016 at 10:16 AM, snowman19 said:

The new JMA has flipped to a mild winter. It was one of the last holdouts showing a cold winter after the Euro went warm: 

 

 

Another bad sign, not only is the blob long gone, the Gulf of Alaska is going cold: 

 

Good catch...the strip of colder anomalies from Japan to GOA isn't unprecedented.  In fact when you plot the blowtorch analogs its the complete opposite.   Interesting enough a few of the colder/snowier ones I checked matched up with that feature.  I didn't know you were thinking cold/snowy.

Note:  I didn't check each and every analog, just threw in some torchy ones and threw in the ones that I recall being cold/snowy.  Also, just checking the pac, not matching up the atlantic.

 

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Morris said:

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +0.4 (+0.4)

Nino 3: -0.4 (+0.2)

Nino 3.4: -0.7 (+0.1)

Nino 4: -0.5 (+0.1)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

Shift warmer on the latest CFS with ENSO SST's. It will be interesting to see if we can get back to the warm side of neutral by next spring.

The residual warmth from the historic full basin event last few years has left this October with more of a Nino VP look than Nina in the EPAC.

 

new run

 

old run

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, packbacker said:

Good catch...the strip of colder anomalies from Japan to GOA isn't unprecedented.  In fact when you plot the blowtorch analogs its the complete opposite.   Interesting enough a few of the colder/snowier ones I checked matched up with that feature.  I didn't know you were thinking cold/snowy.

Note:  I didn't check each and every analog, just threw in some torchy ones and threw in the ones that I recall being cold/snowy.  Also, just checking the pac, not matching up the atlantic.

 

 

This 500 mb pattern the last few weeks really ramped the +PDO back up.

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, packbacker said:

Good catch...the strip of colder anomalies from Japan to GOA isn't unprecedented.  In fact when you plot the blowtorch analogs its the complete opposite.   Interesting enough a few of the colder/snowier ones I checked matched up with that feature.  I didn't know you were thinking cold/snowy.

Note:  I didn't check each and every analog, just threw in some torchy ones and threw in the ones that I recall being cold/snowy.  Also, just checking the pac, not matching up the atlantic.

 

 

Actually that big cold ribbon stretching from Asia into the Gulf of Alaska I believe is acting to strengthen and enhance the firehose Pacific jet even more from the gradient it's causing with the warm ssta just to its south. Today's Euro is just more of the same. It shows the warm Pacific pattern continuing unabated. By day 10 it develops a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex

[PB GFI]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Actually that big cold ribbon stretching from Asia into the Gulf of Alaska I believe is acting to strengthen and enhance the firehose Pacific jet even more from the gradient it's causing with the warm ssta just to its south. Today's Euro is just more of the same. It shows the warm Pacific pattern continuing unabated. By day 10 it develops a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex

 

 

 

The EURO snows on day 6 N and W . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

New UKMET seasonal winter forecast: 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

 

The EURO snows on day 6 N and W . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very transient, storm-induced quick in and out cold shot then gone. The Pacific stays the same and doesn't change, Day 10: 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

New UKMET seasonal winter forecast: 

 

Last years UKMET 

 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Very transient, storm-induced quick in and out cold shot then gone. The Pacific stays the same and doesn't change, Day 10: 

 

Day  7 -11  are prob BN  on the GFS . 

 

Will have to see what the EPS at 12z shows . 

 

[packbacker]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Actually that big cold ribbon stretching from Asia into the Gulf of Alaska I believe is acting to strengthen and enhance the firehose Pacific jet even more from the gradient it's causing with the warm ssta just to its south. Today's Euro is just more of the same. It shows the warm Pacific pattern continuing unabated. By day 10 it develops a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex

More of a symptom of a temp roidian jet.  It will weaken/buckle and whatever pattern will setup into Dec (could be late Dec).  Maybe warm, maybe cold, but from what I plotted above and what you pointed out it could be BN.  Just look at the SST's you posted...where do you think the pac ridge would be?  Right over the well BN SST's?  

Edit:  For the record...I am in the more neutral camp for DJF temps, although it's hard not to be pessimistic when every single seasonal is torchy.

[PB GFI]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very transient, storm-induced quick in and out cold shot then gone. The Pacific stays the same and doesn't change, Day 10: 

 

JUST AS THE GEFS EXPECTS , THE 12Z EPS WENT RIGHT TO THE TROUGH IN THE EAST , 

DAY 5 - 10 

DAY 12 . IT CONTINUES 

 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

JUST AS THE GEFS EXPECTS , THE 12Z EPS WENT RIGHT TO THE TROUGH IN THE EAST , 

DAY 5 - 10 

DAY 12 . IT CONTINUES 

 

Can't see anything and I'm at work right now. What does the Pacific and Canada look like? Arctic still locked in Eurasia?

[packbacker]

11 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

JUST AS THE GEFS EXPECTS , THE 12Z EPS WENT RIGHT TO THE TROUGH IN THE EAST , 

DAY 5 - 10 

DAY 12 . IT CONTINUES 

 

Yep...not sure I recall a trough wrapping from Asia through the NPac to the east coast then on out to the atlantic though .  Interesting pattern potential as we get into Dec.

[thunderbolt]

question for you pack or pb what would it take to get the cold air from on the other side of the globe would it be a stratosphere warming event ?

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

Day  7 -11  are prob BN  on the GFS . 

 

Will have to see what the EPS at 12z shows . 

 

Yeah there should be a cold period in the 5-10 day range, after that the signals get a bit messy but the trend is for above average in the east except for the far northeast.

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah there should be a cold period in the 5-10 day range, after that the signals get a bit messy but the trend is for above average in the east except for the far northeast.

 

I'm all honesty that map  may just be N over bare grounder.

If the OP verifies it's below.

After that the EPS went to the trough in the east  again after day 12 .

The GFS ensembles see it too , but I would like see the PAC JET buckle a bit and shorten the wave lengths. 

Then that would look a lot better. 

[packbacker]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

This 500 mb pattern the last few weeks really ramped the +PDO back up.

 

 

 

 

Yep...looks really healthy. I purposely didn't call it a +PDO as we been down that rat hole before :-)

Also like you said above....signs are pointing to a dying weak Nina.  

The sw Atlantic has been cooling too.  Whether it stops or warms we shall see  

 

 

[Dsnowx53]

Wow, absolutely classic +PDO. It doesn't get anymore textbook than that.

[Dsnowx53]

I don't think people realized the the upcoming (well now, current) pattern favored a rapidly rising PDO. A large GOA low (assuming it's not either hugging Alaska or very much displaced to the east) DOWNWELLS the waters along British Columbia and the West Coast due to a lot of southerly flow. And if it's a bit displaced to the south like this one has been at times, then it also downwells warm water right along the southern coast of Alaska as well.

 

Edited to correct from upwells to downwells.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

This 500 mb pattern the last few weeks really ramped the +PDO back up.

 

 

 

 

Quick question, where do you find daily PDO values like this. I have searched very hard for that data coming up empty handed.

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

I don't think people realized the the upcoming (well now, current) pattern favored a rapidly rising PDO. A large GOA low assuming it's either hugging Alaska or very much displaced to the east UPWELLS the waters along British Columbia and the West Coast due to a lot of southerly flow. And if it's a bit displaced to the south like this one has been at times, then it also upwells warm water right along the southern coast of Alaska as well.

Would think that would be indicative of a transition period though if the cold water to the west eventually pushes E (as it has been) and the GOA low shifts E a bit. Similar thing happened in 1998-1999.

[raindancewx]

NOAA had the PDO rising in October - the JISAO index usually reflects the NOAA movement. The November PDO definitely looks more classically positive than the Aug-Oct configurations, although the cool tongue is sort of in the wrong place by the JISAO definition to be fully traditional.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[Dsnowx53]

3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Would think that would be indicative of a transition period though if the cold water to the west eventually pushes E (as it has been) and the GOA low shifts E a bit. Similar thing happened in 1998-1999.

 

But even if that keeps pushing east, that feature as a whole is still very indicative of a +PDO. It may put a slight dent in it, but it's not going to change the overall look unless it also rapidly expands and spreads out into the northern GOA and west coast.

 

[Dsnowx53]

I'll admit I didn't necessarily see this coming, but I also never bought into a -PDO either. I was thinking neutral to positive. But after what I've been seeing in the past couple of weeks, I can't help but to not buy into these real +PDO trends.

[andyhb]

4 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

But even if that keeps pushing east, that feature as a whole is still very indicative of a +PDO. It may put a slight dent in it, but it's not going to change the overall look unless it also rapidly expands and spreads out into the northern GOA and west coast.

Well what interests me more is the dipole between the warm pool centered around 30˚N and then the cold pool around 45˚N, which seems shifted northward from those composites. Almost like the western/central Pacific is meridionally half +PDO/half -PDO but on an extreme level. Eastern Pacific is still definitely positive though, which is a bummer for me since I was looking for a busier winter out here (with maybe half a chance at a decent snowfall) and promise of a better severe season next year.