La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[snowman19]

A classic Modoki La Niña circulation and thermocline continues. Latest numbers, region 1+2 at +0.3C, while region 3.4 is at -1.1C: 

Here is a closeup of region 1+2: 

[PB GFI]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+PDO back on the increase again as SST's warm along the west coast of North and Central America in October.

Notice how strong the subsurface +PDO signature remains. 

 

10/30/16

 

9/30/16

 

Strong subsurface +PDO signature

 

 

 

 

 

There's only 1 call worse than calling for a -PDO for 6 month and that was calling for a East based NINO for 7 .

But it's close .

Even if we did head towards neutral the overwhelming guidance keeps it on the POS side of the ledger through the season .

 

 

 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There's only 1 call worse than calling for a -PDO for 6 month and that was calling for a East based NINO for 7 .

But it's close .

Even if we did head towards neutral the overwhelming guidance keeps it on the POS side of the ledger through the season .

 

 

 

This is not a +PDO and it's trending more negative each week. Isotherm and Stebo concur 

[PB GFI]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is not a +PDO and it's trending more negative each week 

 

The guidance suggests we stay Neutral  and rebound. 

Even if we decline to -  do you realize we did that in Nov 95 and 13 and rebounded like the guidance suggests. 

How did those turn out ? 

Now how is anyone here suppose to take you seriously when you post the Canadian is an "epic torch " while cutting off your map at the probability scheme. 

You insult the readers intelligence when you do that which  forces some of us to not take you seriously. 

It's okay to be wrong or have a different opinion but it should be coupled with guidance .

Now just look at the guidance  Chris posted above , there is no skill in regurgitating ideas that are not backed by guidance.

[snowman19]

Griteater from the SE forum just posted his winter forecast. Well worth the read very well done. Really similar to my thoughts... 

 

[psuhoffman]

your thoughts are always pretty similar.  It's ok to be a warminista or contrarian but you lose cred when every prediction you make is the same general idea.  Your like the anti JB.  

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Griteater from the SE forum just posted his winter forecast. Well worth the read very well done. Really similar to my thoughts... 

 

 

[Stebo]

11 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

The guidance suggests we stay Neutral  and rebound. 

Even if we decline to -  do you realize we did that in Nov 95 and 13 and rebounded like the guidance suggests. 

How did those turn out ? 

Now how is anyone here suppose to take you seriously when you post the Canadian is an "epic torch " while cutting off your map at the probability scheme. 

You insult the readers intelligence when you do that which  forces some of us to not take you seriously. 

It's okay to be wrong or have a different opinion but it should be coupled with guidance .

Now just look at the guidance  Chris posted above , there is no skill in regurgitating ideas that are not backed by guidance.

That same guidance had the PDO not dipping anywhere near where it is now over the past several months, forecast guidance for the PDO doesn't have a real good track record unlike ENSO guidance. In other words I am taking said guidance with a grain of salt, the one thing that we can note over the last several months is that it has been going down for 6 months straight.

[Stebo]

 

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

+PDO back on the increase again as SST's warm along the west coast of North and Central America in October.

Notice how strong the subsurface +PDO signature remains. 

 

10/30/16

 

9/30/16

 

Strong subsurface +PDO signature

 

 

 

 

In relation to your last image, this gif would suggest that the subsurface positive anomalies are quickly going away in the eastern Pacific, which is why I find it interesting you used September's image but not October's.

[snowman19]

The trend of a dropping PDO is undeniable. Do I think we are going to have a super negative PDO this winter? No but I can certainly see it on the negative side of neutral this winter. Changes over the North Pacific are abound and they are very significant 

[packbacker]

The northern PAC has cooled tremendously but when I look at the past 30 day change below I don't see a imminent -PDO either.  In fact past 30 day change looks like classic +PDO.

Now whether we get the warm PDO response this winter with -enso....who knows.  

 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The northern PAC has cooled tremendously but when I look at the past 30 day change below I don't see a imminent -PDO either.  In fact past 30 day change looks like classic +PDO.

Now whether we get the warm PDO response this winter with -enso....who knows.  

 

The index has been dropping significantly, consistently for months in a row now. Here is the change from last year to this year for October. Ben Noll pointed this out today. Look at the west coast. Very clear trend toward a -PDO

[packbacker]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The index has been dropping significantly, consistently for months in a row now. Here is the change from last year to this year for October. Ben Noll pointed this out today. Look at the west coast. Very clear trend toward a -PDO

Agreed...NPAC has cooled substantially and weakened from a fairly strong +PDO a year ago.  

[Isotherm]

Whether the PDO ends up being -0.25 or +0.25 for the DJF period shouldn't make a material difference in the resultant sensible weather. The PDO will naturally rise in the spring as ENSO transitions more neutral; the question is timing. Either way, I strongly doubt we're looking at a robust +PDO for DJF like 1995-96 or 1983-84.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Whether the PDO ends up being -0.25 or +0.25 for the DJF period shouldn't make a material difference in the resultant sensible weather. The PDO will naturally rise in the spring as ENSO transitions more neutral; the question is timing. Either way, I strongly doubt we're looking at a robust +PDO for DJF like 1995-96 or 1983-84.

Agree. The ship has already sailed on a strong +PDO winter, a la 83-84 or 95-96. It's clear that a strong +PDO is not happening. Also, this La Niña is more of a real classic modoki event than those Ninas were as well. Region 1+2 was cooler in both of those Ninas than it is now and has been throughout this event

[psuhoffman]

95/96 was nao driven

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. The ship has already sailed on a strong +PDO winter, a la 83-84 or 95-96. It's clear that a strong +PDO is not happening. Also, this La Niña is more of a real classic modoki event than those Ninas were as well. Region 1+2 was cooler in both of those Ninas than it is now and has been throughout this event

Comparing a snapshot from those winters to this one the PDO looks stronger at this point for 2016, so we will see what Oct's reading is.  Will see how it evolves but both winters looked like CP ninas, some SST similarities.

I do agree with you though...I don't see a strong +PDO but I also don't see a negative one either.

 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

95/96 was nao driven

Yeah and right now the Atlantic has a hostile look with respect to prolonged west based -NAO, that could change but time isn't exactly on our side. Most long range models actually showed an east based -NAO this winter at times. That isn't favorable for the east coast, it is more favorable for the lakes and the Appalachians.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Changes from month to month are common, but the deep +PDO/ +NPM signature persists. If you roll that animation back a year you will

see monthly fluxuations which are typical. There was actually a decline last March after the winter before rebounding again.

 

 

 

 

 

Is there an October image for that cross section, or better yet where do you find those cross sections?

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I haven't seen it updated yet. But you can get those cross sections at the the AOOS APAC blob tracking site.

https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/contributors/

https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/

A cross-sectional view of the changes since January (see figures below) confirms the persistence of anomalous warmth in the northeastern Pacific. The last cross-section in the sequence, showing the September analysis, reveals the connection between subsurface conditions and the recent surface warmth near 150°W (the blob center), and it also shows that the subsurface cool anomaly in the central North Pacific has become quite deep and pronounced. The location of the cool conditions is consistent with the positive PDO phase, and the intensification of the west-east gradient suggests that the positive PDO pattern has become quite entrenched in the subsurface waters. Consequently it’s no surprise to see that the long-range computer models expect the PDO to become positive again this winter (see the bottom figure below); and this would bring a high likelihood of unusual warmth once again to Alaska and western Canada.

Thanks for the links, I'd still be curious to see what October's cross section shows because the map I gave did show the depth of the warmth going away quickly at 300m. My guess is the cooling to the west is undercutting the warmth which would make sense since there have been nonstop storminess in that part of the Pacific moving in from the west.

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah and right now the Atlantic has a hostile look with respect to prolonged west based -NAO, that could change but time isn't exactly on our side. Most long range models actually showed an east based -NAO this winter at times. That isn't favorable for the east coast, it is more favorable for the lakes and the Appalachians.

Back in 95 the Atlantic was in +AMO mode and the North Atlantic was warm around Greenland. A tripole configuration in the ssta was present. Totally different from now. The North Atlantic is getting ice cold 

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Back in 95 the Atlantic was in +AMO mode and the North Atlantic was warm around Greenland. A tripole configuration in the ssta was present. Totally different from now. The North Atlantic is getting ice cold 

I am not sold at all on this being a cold and or snowy winter, as I said in the mid atlantic forum seasonal forecasts are so volatile to begin with and this year there are conflicting signals all over the place making it even harder.  There are certainly plenty of signals that favor cold and others (which you point out) for warm.  You tend to cherry pick data though that supports only one side of an argument.  You did this last year as well.  And you seem to pop into the mid atlantic forum more frequently when a snow threat is falling apart or the pattern is looking like crap.   I guess since you are a NOOB only having been on the forum for 2 years perhaps I should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just have not seen any good signs for cold or snow in that time and when things turn around you will be honking on here just as much for a great winter pattern.  

[Stebo]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not sold at all on this being a cold and or snowy winter, as I said in the mid atlantic forum seasonal forecasts are so volatile to begin with and this year there are conflicting signals all over the place making it even harder.  There are certainly plenty of signals that favor cold and others (which you point out) for warm.  You tend to cherry pick data though that supports only one side of an argument.  You did this last year as well.  And you seem to pop into the mid atlantic forum more frequently when a snow threat is falling apart or the pattern is looking like crap.   I guess since you are a NOOB only having been on the forum for 2 years perhaps I should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just have not seen any good signs for cold or snow in that time and when things turn around you will be honking on here just as much for a great winter pattern.  

For the Mid Atlantic I would agree, the issue is, one storm can easily make a season down there so it is hard to go below average on snow. Temp however does look to be more average and if the PNA ends up negative then the temps will definitely be above average.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Care to add something to discussion or you just going to complain about other posters some more? I have been watching and posting in this thread all fall and I have yet to see a post of yours be on topic or have any substance, but you do love to complain about people calling for a warm winter, Snowman19 specifically.

I know this was directed at someone else but just to make sure I am clear my dart at snowman19 is specifically because he tends to only examine or post about one side of argument.  There are plenty of forecasts for warm that I take no issue of because they seem to be grounded in data from all factors and they made a gut call or an educated guess as to which factors will dominate the pattern.  Snowman seems to pop up only to throw information that would seem to support warmth into the discussion.  I dont read EVERY post so perhaps I missed something but in 2 years I don't think I ever recall him posting something that would favor cold or snow even once.  I know he only pops into the mid atlantic forum where I spend most of my time to tell them its not going to snow.   I am summarizing of course.  He is often right (although one such instance I measured 9" of "not going to snow") but he seems to cherry pick situations.  He was unusually absent for instance when the blizzard was hitting.  If I am wrong I apologize and I am willing to admit to mistakes but he seems to display a pretty obvious bias.  

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this was directed at someone else but just to make sure I am clear my dart at snowman19 is specifically because he tends to only examine or post about one side of argument.  There are plenty of forecasts for warm that I take no issue of because they seem to be grounded in data from all factors and they made a gut call or an educated guess as to which factors will dominate the pattern.  Snowman seems to pop up only to throw information that would seem to support warmth into the discussion.  I dont read EVERY post so perhaps I missed something but in 2 years I don't think I ever recall him posting something that would favor cold or snow even once.  I know he only pops into the mid atlantic forum where I spend most of my time to tell them its not going to snow.   I am summarizing of course.  He is often right (although one such instance I measured 9" of "not going to snow") but he seems to cherry pick situations.  He was unusually absent for instance when the blizzard was hitting.  If I am wrong I apologize and I am willing to admit to mistakes but he seems to display a pretty obvious bias.  

No I agree it is a one sided discussion from him but he is adding information to the thread, the guy I replied to doesn't and hasn't. It is clogging the thread up with useless posts.

I do think snowman19 should show both sides of the discussion, it would add credibility to his posts. Many here do show both sides of the coin including myself which is why this is a really good thread.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not sold at all on this being a cold and or snowy winter, as I said in the mid atlantic forum seasonal forecasts are so volatile to begin with and this year there are conflicting signals all over the place making it even harder.  There are certainly plenty of signals that favor cold and others (which you point out) for warm.  You tend to cherry pick data though that supports only one side of an argument.  You did this last year as well.  And you seem to pop into the mid atlantic forum more frequently when a snow threat is falling apart or the pattern is looking like crap.   I guess since you are a NOOB only having been on the forum for 2 years perhaps I should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just have not seen any good signs for cold or snow in that time and when things turn around you will be honking on here just as much for a great winter pattern.  

Pointing out the obvious with the North Atlantic is not a cherry pick. There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole configuration, in fact the North Atlantic sstas are going into the freezer. I'm sorry if that doesn't support west-based Greenland blocked -NAO but it is what it is. There are other factors against it, modoki La Niña, +QBO, which I already pointed out with links to the research supporting that recently in this thread

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Pointing out the obvious with the North Atlantic is not a cherry pick. There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole configuration, in fact the North Atlantic sstas are going into the freezer. I'm sorry if that doesn't support west-based Greenland blocked -NAO but it is what it is. There are other factors against it, modoki La Niña, +QBO, which I already pointed out with links to the research supporting that recently in this thread

Dude your posts like this one come off as standoffish which is why people complain. It is one thing to believe something is the case but you don't have to go so hard in the paint to drive the point home.

[packbacker]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Pointing out the obvious with the North Atlantic is not a cherry pick. There is no semblance whatsoever of a tripole configuration, in fact the North Atlantic sstas are going into the freezer. I'm sorry if that doesn't support west-based Greenland blocked -NAO but it is what it is. There are other factors against it, modoki La Niña, +QBO, which I already pointed out with links to the research supporting that recently in this thread

Yep...high odds for +NAO winters.  But, we should be used to that by now and there have been plenty of cold/snowy winters with +NAO's.  Though, personally I don't think a cold/snowy +NAO winter is high probably either...something along Grits outlook is what I am expecting.

[Stebo]

Just now, packbacker said:

Yep...high odds for +NAO winters.  But, we should be used to that by now and there have been plenty of cold/snowy winters with +NAO's.  Though, personally I don't think a cold/snowy +NAO winter is high probably either. 

I would also agree that this winter at least right now has the making of a +NAO or east based -NAO type winter. There is a possibility that changes and like you mention you can still get cold and snowstorms with +NAOs especially if the AO goes highly negative, so the winter isn't hopeless in that respect. That said I don't expect prolonged west based -NAO this winter.

[Dsnowx53]

The WEAK Nina and +QBO sample size is extremely small, fwiw. 

[Dsnowx53]

Griteater's post was great. His ideas made a lot of sense.

I will say this, though. I think too many people are lumping in moderate and strong Ninas into their analysis for what goes on with a +QBO or when the Nina is central-based. The intensity matters a lot, too. When you had a WEAK Nina with it located in the CP, the DJFM NAO averaged +0.0328, which is essentially neutral. So I don't necessarily agree that the CP Weak Nina is a +NAO indicator. I used griteater's chart and took the average of just the weak Ninas from this chart, since this winter looks to be a weak Nina.

 

A lot of the weak Ninas also had a low December NAO, and when combined with things going on in the stratosphere, I agree with December being a -AO, -NAO month with cold in the E US. There is evidence of a higher NAO as the winter goes on, though.