DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/21/2016 at 1:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It seems to me too many of the forecasts out there so far, including NOAA's are going too heavy with a Nina look. This is really a piss poor excuse for a La Nina right now. Going hard core with the whole Plains cold and snowy and SE ridge seems like a dangerous proposition. In addition, we are coming off an insanely strong El Nino and there is often some sort of lag in the behavior of the atmosphere. That lag has been pronounced before in stronger Ninas following big Ninos and stronger Ninos following Ninas, so I'd be really wary of it showing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 9 hours ago, DTWXRISK said: Seconded.......my winter thoughts are beginning to come into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seconded.......my winter thoughts are beginning to come into focus. I've become much more optimistic about this winter, at least Nov/Dec, with the record high Eurasian snow cover, stratospheric vortex split, and La Nina staying weak. Definitely think we see an active pattern to start with some good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 30-day SOI down to 1.48, and 90-day SOI is only at 6.25. 7 or higher is what is typically deemed for a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 This pattern coming going into November and december certainly isn't indicative of a Nina-esque pattern. BIG question for me will be when blocking does setup will it stick around or at least take short breaks and reloading OR only be transient and not really establish itself?. Similar to winter's the past few years, when we had a snow threat on the EC, the Pacific really wasn't cooperative. I would like to see a more established and prominent +PNA this time around. Just my $.02 as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, REDMK6GLI said: This pattern coming going into November and december certainly isn't indicative of a Nina-esque pattern. BIG question for me will be when blocking does setup will it stick around or at least take short breaks and reloading OR only be transient and not really establish itself?. Similar to winter's the past few years, when we had a snow threat on the EC, the Pacific really wasn't cooperative. I would like to see a more established and prominent +PNA this time around. Just my $.02 as of now The Pacific certainly was never going to be cooperative last winter with that El Nino. The western Atlantic ridge may help us again as it did in 2014-15 though. Many systems that would have been misses normally were not that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Pacific certainly was never going to be cooperative last winter with that El Nino. The western Atlantic ridge may help us again as it did in 2014-15 though. Many systems that would have been misses normally were not that year. I agree with you 100% there. The WAR did help us greatly in 14-15. We get some more cooperation from the PNA it will only help. The Raging El Nino last year did indeed sink the PAC cooperation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: I can see how the Euro and CESM are coming up with a -EPO/-AO December. Weak La Ninas typically have a -EPO and -AO in December. Weak December La Nina composite New CESM December forecast That's a great look. Next month could possibly end the monthly above average temps streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, REDMK6GLI said: This pattern coming going into November and december certainly isn't indicative of a Nina-esque pattern. BIG question for me will be when blocking does setup will it stick around or at least take short breaks and reloading OR only be transient and not really establish itself?. Similar to winter's the past few years, when we had a snow threat on the EC, the Pacific really wasn't cooperative. I would like to see a more established and prominent +PNA this time around. Just my $.02 as of now A +PNA winter is extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 we had a plus pna last year and a plus pna every January since 2008... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 7 hours ago, bluewave said: I can see how the Euro and CESM are coming up with a -EPO/-AO December. Weak La Ninas typically have a -EPO and -AO in December. Weak December La Nina composite New CESM December forecast I like -3 for DEC. We should start quick out of the box . When we flip out of it/ we don't go wire to wire , I hope we can flip back quick. But I think DEC is really BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: A +PNA winter is extremely unlikely I am not sure I agree / If you keep seeing LP S of the Aleutians then you will probably increase heights on the WC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 8 hours ago, uncle W said: we had a plus pna last year and a plus pna every January since 2008... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Totally different ENSO state last winter. Last year was an El Niño and that definitely supports +PNA, plus the PDO was extremely positive on top of it. This time around we have a La Niña along with a +QBO. All the research very strongly favors a poleward Aleutian high and -PNA. There are several papers written on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 hours ago, PB GFI said: I am not sure I agree / If you keep seeing LP S of the Aleutians then you will probably increase heights on the WC Nina state and +QBO leads to poleward Aleutian ridging. Read this it explains why; http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Totally different ENSO state last winter. Last year was an El Niño and that definitely supports +PNA, plus the PDO was extremely positive on top of it. This time around we have a La Niña along with a +QBO. All the research very strongly favors a poleward Aleutian high and -PNA. There are several papers written on this. Strong ENSOs support +PNA ? You had the strongest NINO ever recorded last year and you still ended up with a split flow because of all that warm water in the NP region . You may not be able to stick a ridge in the EP this year. I don't think the QBO is going to drive the N PAC . Again some " now " believe that there is a high correlation between to what is found at 45 MB in weak La Nina years. There are some very detailed papers AO correlations written on July , October, SAI correlation etc. Then there seems to be good agreement that -AO/EPO regimes like to work together. I believe 1SD -AO October's saw a -AO 13x that winter and a -EPO showed up 11x. ( See Bluewaves piece) . These are all small sample size but so was your data set . So I am looking at EP and what I believe will be the response at 500 and saying there is a natural response to when AN anomalies in that region get hit by the cold jet coming off the Asian continent . ( trough) . I am not saing you may be overweighing just one signal, I am just disagreeing with how this could look at 500. I am looking at some different signals and a -AO/-EPO/+PNA regime is my choice here. We will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 32 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Strong ENSOs support +PNA ? You had the strongest NINO ever recorded last year and you still ended up with a split flow because of all that warm water in the NP region . You may not be able to stick a ridge in the EP this year. I don't think the QBO is going to drive the N PAC . Again some " now " believe that there is a high correlation between to what is found at 45 MB in weak La Nina years. There are some very detailed papers AO correlations written on July , October, SAI correlation etc. Then there seems to be good agreement that -AO/EPO regimes like to work together. I believe 1SD -AO October's saw a -AO 13x that winter and a -EPO showed up 11x. ( See Bluewaves piece) . These are all small sample size but so was your data set . So I am looking at EP and what I believe will be the response at 500 and saying there is a natural response to when AN anomalies in that region get hit by the cold jet coming off the Asian continent . ( trough) . I am not saing you may be overweighing just one signal, I am just disagreeing with how this could look at 500. I am looking at some different signals and a -AO/-EPO/+PNA regime is my choice here. We will see . Should be interesting but I'm favoring -PDO, -PNA, neutral EPO overall with more positive bouts than we have seen over the last several winters. As far as ENSO, weak modoki La Nina is pretty much a lock for this winter. I'll give my AO and NAO thoughts later next week but right now I think +NAO. Still looking at the AO and I don't think it's going too be as super negative come winter as some do right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Should be interesting but I'm favoring -PDO, -PNA, neutral EPO overall with more positive bouts than we have seen over the last several winters. As far as ENSO, weak modoki La Nina is pretty much a lock for this winter. I'll give my AO and NAO thoughts later next week but right now I think +NAO. Still looking at the AO and I don't think it's going too be as super negative come winter as some do right now What makes you thing this winter is going to be a +NAO winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: What makes you thing this winter is going to be a +NAO winter? Central based La Ninas favor +NAO, Griteater from the SE forum had a great post on this. +QBO with La Nina base state also favors +NAO See this; https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=qbo+nao+weather+la+nina&source=bl&ots=IYxxDusGRj&sig=uKqWBQ48PPOiF-EWKbxSgmQEhLk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjnsYzn0fHPAhXMFT4KHe2mBXUQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q=qbo nao weather la nina&f=false Add to this the north atlantic sstas. They are going ice cold again as we head into November to a negative AMO look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Nina state and +QBO leads to poleward Aleutian ridging. Read this it explains why; http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 Your assuming the Niña state is going to be significant enough to assert that influence. That is a risky assumption right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your assuming the Niña state is going to be significant enough to assert that influence. That is a risky assumption right now. I agree, based on what Chris and Paul have posted it would seem the remnant El Nino regime is still overwhelming the potentially weak La Nina to La Nada event in the Pacific for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Daily SOI is -21, 30-day SOI is down to 0.21, and 90-day SOI is down to 6.04. What Nina? Also, Nino 1+2 cooled drastically and now has negative anomalies. Without warmer water there, this doesn't look much like a modoki anymore. That could change since Nino 1+2 is more volatile than the other regions, but I definitely think it's worth noting. I was using Nina analogs for a while and now I'm a bit more hesitant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 the cold water south of Greenland is a big inhibitor to a -NAO. Part of the reason a -NAO has been non existent for the most part the last 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 13 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said: Daily SOI is -21, 30-day SOI is down to 0.21, and 90-day SOI is down to 6.04. What Nina? Also, Nino 1+2 cooled drastically and now has negative anomalies. Without warmer water there, this doesn't look much like a modoki anymore. That could change since Nino 1+2 is more volatile than the other regions, but I definitely think it's worth noting. I was using Nina analogs for a while and now I'm a bit more hesitant. I wouldn't worry about the SOI too much. It can be very volatile at times. The 30 day was near +14 just a couple weeks ago. The trade winds near the dateline are still fairly strong (and are forecast to strengthen at the beginning of November). The oceanic heat content has also decreased. So while I don't necessarily see much strengthening I think the weak nina will stick around for a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Central based La Ninas favor +NAO, Griteater from the SE forum had a great post on this. +QBO with La Nina base state also favors +NAO See this; https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=qbo+nao+weather+la+nina&source=bl&ots=IYxxDusGRj&sig=uKqWBQ48PPOiF-EWKbxSgmQEhLk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjnsYzn0fHPAhXMFT4KHe2mBXUQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q=qbo nao weather la nina&f=false Add to this the north atlantic sstas. They are going ice cold again as we head into November to a negative AMO look Good post snowman. Anthony Masiello's also saying on twitter that the recent high geomagnetic activity could argue for a positive NAO/AO winter. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/791650919997841408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Oct 21 FiAnthony Masiello @antmasiello Oct 21 Finding a hard time thinking of reasons the AO would be positive this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 May be a but earlier for this, nobody has really mentioned the MJO for the upcoming November and how that may impact weather on the EC. Food for thought at this juncture that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 59 minutes ago, Tim198 said: Good post snowman. Anthony Masiello's also saying on twitter that the recent high geomagnetic activity could argue for a positive NAO/AO winter. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/791650919997841408 But he`s not leaning in that direction correct ? 40 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Oct 21 FiAnthony Masiello @antmasiello Oct 21 Finding a hard time thinking of reasons the AO would be positive this winter... So his position is that he`s leaning towards a - AO from what I read . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I think Anthony said that he thinks the geomagnetic storms is the one thing that could make the AO positive, but otherwise the signs point to it being negative. I agree with him there. He also said that until the Walker Cell restrengthens, Nina analogs shouldn't be used. And with the Siberian High, the Walker Cell should only grow weaker. We've been in a Nino pattern for a little while now, and that should last longer, which I think is interfering with the developing Nina. The SOI can certainly be volatile, but it's no coincidence that it's doing what it's doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 The AO and NAO also don't correlate as often as one thinks. I thought the correlation was somewhere around 0.6? I could easily see a -AO and +NAO winter. I don't think it's good to forecast the sign of the other based on the sign of one. That's not good meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 It is a horrible disservice to a guy like Massielo if you twist him answering a tweet as " it could be one reason " as being his position . He has obviously looked a several variables and came up with ... HAVING A HARD TIME OF THINKING THE AO WILL BE POSITIVE THIS WINTER . That is his forecast / opinion and whether it fits with yours don`t lie in here , your future posts will be dismissed out of hand . Do not distort the work of others in here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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