snowman19 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The corrected/fixed CFSv2 is now showing a strong, basin wide La Niña come fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The Euro is currently much weaker. ENSO neutral to weak La Nina conditions by summer. It keeps the +PDO so strong that it wraps around the cooling SST's along the equator. ECMWF model 0.9 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 EURO.png Euro is alot more reliable than the cfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 The Euro is currently much weaker. ENSO neutral to weak La Nina conditions by summer. It keeps the +PDO so strong that it wraps around the cooling SST's along the equator. ECMWF model 0.9 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 EURO.png Thoughts on the shifting of the subtropic high, SE flow in response to the developing La Niña? That is probably going to give a big hit to the +PDO. I can see the PDO really dropping off towards neutral or even negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +1.5 (+0.6) Nino 3: +1.6 (+0.2) Nino 3.4: +1.5 (-) Nino 4: +1.1 (-0.1) http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 FWIW, the new Canadian SIPS is showing an atmospheric response/coupling to the rapidly developing La Niña by this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +1.3 (-0.2) Nino 3: +1.4 (-0.2) Nino 3.4: +1.3 (-0.2) Nino 4: +0.9 (-0.2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 Models currently going for the 3rd La Nina to develop since 1950 with such a strong +PDO. The only two years with an official La Nina and a +PDO were 84-85 and 95-96. 83-84 and 05-06 were too weak to make official La Nina status but had a few trimonthlies with weak La Nina conditions. NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png sst.png We all know how 95-96 was wih snow that year but what about 84-85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 We all know how 95-96 was wih snow that year but what about 84-85? 24.1" in Central Park for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 24.1" in Central Park for snow.Oh ok so a slightly below average and the greatest snow season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Models currently going for the 3rd La Nina to develop since 1950 with such a strong +PDO. The only two years with an official La Nina and a +PDO were 84-85 and 95-96. 83-84 and 05-06 were too weak to make official La Nina status but had a few trimonthlies with weak La Nina conditions. NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png sst.png 1984-85 was cold for one month only...1983-84 was a cold winter but had a warm February...05-06 was the warmest of the four... la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1983-84..............-0.5.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9" 5.1" 4.6" 1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" 2005-06..............-0.7.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"..........26.9" 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Today's analysis shows very big cooling this week in 1.2. Check out @TropicalTidbits's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/719996539658178561?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 If niño 4 stays warmer than the rest of the niño regions during la niña would it work out better for us in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 A really impressive increase in the PDO from February to March. March 2016 is in a virtual tie with 1941 for the strongest March +PDO on record. It will be interesting to see how far the La Nina can progress with the PDO near record levels for this time of year. The last two years were already the strongest since the 1980's. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 PDO.png 1941 went on to have another el nino for a third straight year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 I assume the PDO will certainly alter how the season progresses compared to the last Nino to Niña transition in 2010 along with current strength and duration of Nino. Perhaps Bluewave has the 500mb heights, but I believe a mean Ridge was located over Ohio Valley and led to relatively low humidity but big heat for spring and summer. Would love a warm season like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Wow! Nino. 1.2 down to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.21.2016.gif Good bye Super Nino 15-16..it was nice to know you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 If niño 4 stays warmer than the rest of the niño regions during la niña would it work out better for us in the winter?Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.21.2016.gif Good bye Super Nino 15-16..it was nice to know you Yeah, the surface temps are holding on by a thread. A look at the T-Depth anomalies shows the disintegration of El Nino over the past two months: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 DING DING DING Latest values: Nino 1.2: -0.6 Nino 3: +0.6 Nino 3.4: +1.1 Nino 4: +0.8 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for The bottom is falling out in the eastern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Collapse imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Kind of interesting that the strongest trades have been closer to the coast of South America and Atlantic rather than from the WPAC to DL like we often see at the onset of La Nina. u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Any implications from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Kind of interesting that the strongest trades have been closer to the coast of South America and Atlantic rather than from the WPAC to DL like we often see at the onset of La Nina. u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif This explains why the eastern regions have cooled so quickly, while the central regions have still remained warm (at the surface). In 1998, the eastern regions were still holding on strong, while the central and western regions were collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: -0.3 (+0.3) Nino 3: +0.4 (-0.2) Nino 3.4: +0.8 (-0.3) Nino 4: +0.9 (+0.1) http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Yeah, the only El Nino to La Nina spring transition that looks remotely similar is 1995. That El Nino ended with a strong cooling in the eastern ENSO regions with stronger trades closer to the South American coast also. While the PDO was rising during that spring, this year is much stronger. So this super El Nino continues to rewrite the playbook even as it's fading out. Like you mentioned, the 97-98 super El Nino held onto the warmer waters east and the strongest spring trades focused further west back to the WPAC and DL. MAY95SST.png MAR95W.png If the model projections are correct, central and western ENSO regions will follow the eastern regions' lead shortly and really begin to crash as trades strengthen and the +SOI climbs. The continued development of a strong -IOD support this continuing with the associated pressure patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 CHILE . A near record warm 1.2 region along with a BOILING NINO on balance created the warmer sea water that led to greater amounts of algae . http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wave-of-dead-sea-creatures-hits-chiles-beaches/ar-BBsCM6o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Models currently going for the 3rd La Nina to develop since 1950 with such a strong +PDO. The only two years with an official La Nina and a +PDO were 84-85 and 95-96. 83-84 and 05-06 were too weak to make official La Nina status but had a few trimonthlies with weak La Nina conditions. NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png sst.png There has never been a moderate or strong La Niña along with a +PDO as long as weather records have been kept. Most forecast models and experts at this point are calling for at least a moderate La Niña. So if the scenario of a +PDO and a moderate or strong Niña were to occur, it would be the first time in history and thus there would be no analogs for such a setup. My guess continues to be a transition to a -PDO or at least a neutral PDO by the end of fall. JB's thinking is that we go into a -PDO. It will be very intriguing either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The latest Scipps is projecting a super La Niña. If it's correct, ENSO region 3.4 will be colder than -2.0C for 5 months straight. That would be the strongest La Niña in history if that were to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Current subsurface anomalies are much colder in the western Nino regions than in the eastern ones. This strongly suggests that a west-based La Niña is taking shape: https://mobile.twitter.com/i/status/728685009595310080/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +0.4 (+0.7) Nino 3: +0.4 (-) Nino 3.4: +0.8 (-) Nino 4: +0.8 (-0.1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Very unique situation shaping up as the La Nina develops heading into summer. As we are getting near the end of the spring forecast barrier, the guidance is coming in stronger with the La Nina forecasts. It looks like the model consensus is indicating the potential to cross the moderate -1.0C La Nina level. The models all insist on maintaining the strong +PDO signature as the La Nina develops. This would be a first since 1950 with so much warm water in the Eastern NPAC off the West Coast of North America. So it will be interesting to see how things go. Even in the few years like 84-85 and 95-96 with a +PDO, the warm water off the West Coast was much less impressive than we are seeing in current forecasts. The other interesting note is how much warmer the Eastern IO region now is compared to typical La Nina development. 11 year -1.0 or lower peak trimonthly moderate La Nina composite SST.png Forecast is something new for post 1950 with so much SST warmth of Western North America and Eastern IO NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1.png Yes. The models continue to get stronger with the Niña with each run, as you said. Consensus is now for at least a solid moderate Niña with some even showing a "super" Niña (colder than -2.0C in region 3.4 come fall). As far as the Indian Ocean, a strongly negative IOD is developing, which is very favorable for strong trade winds and +SOI, which only serves to strengthen the Niña even more. Here is the classic -IOD ssta setup, which is what we are seeing now: https://www.google.com/search?q=negative+iod&prmd=insv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjzyPqo88_MAhWDwj4KHSpRCHsQ_AUICCgB&biw=320&bih=460#imgrc=q5IzQJjwp3emVM%3A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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