PB GFI Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I assure you I only post under my name and have only one account I love shooting into a dark room and getting someone to yell ouch . jk. I am the cold and snowy train this winter . I am not with HM with his AN here. -EPO/-AO regime on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: Just because I don't post here often doesn't mean I don't read here. Snowman19 gets a ton of negative flack by snowlovers because he sides on the warm side of the spectrum. Also I am lockstep with what HM is posting on twitter, this isn't going to be an east coast winter. Stebo, contrary to what many think many of us like snowman, we just like to prod him. But we all get it from each other / and a new poster was easy pickings. Winter . I don't think the east coast is the center point of winters core , I like the 13/14 bullseye . Upper MW/GL , But I do like a -EPO /-AO tandem that should allow cold air to belly all the way to the coast in the means and end up BN from D thru F. I like AN snowfall here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 14 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Stebo, contrary to what many think many of us like snowman, we just like to prod him. But we all get it from each other / and a new poster was easy pickings. Winter . I don't think the east coast is the center point of winters core , I like the 13/14 bullseye . Upper MW/GL , But I do like a -EPO /-AO tandem that should allow cold air to belly all the way to the coast in the means and end up BN from D thru F. I like AN snowfall here as well. I'm not sold on the -EPO especially with the PDO dropping like it has, the warmth will be centered closer to the Aleutians and force the ridge there. With the ridge there it would force a trough in eastern AK and down the coast, which would go against any chance of a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'm not sold on the -EPO especially with the PDO dropping like it has, the warmth will be centered closer to the Aleutians and force the ridge there. With the ridge there it would force a trough in eastern AK and down the coast, which would go against any chance of a -EPO. Westerly QBO during a Niña supports a poleward Aleutian ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Cohen will be shot into orbit if this AO thing fails again. Particularly after what may end up being a sub 2 October AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Cohen will be shot into orbit if this AO thing fails again. Particularly after what may end up being a sub 2 October AO a minus two would set a record...2009 and 2012 are the lowest Octobers...November slacked off but the -AO returned in December... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 22 minutes ago, uncle W said: a minus two would set a record...2009 and 2012 are the lowest Octobers...November slacked off but the -AO returned in December... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Yeah and even 2012 had the -AO through the winter but it was mild for some reason regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah and even 2012 had the -AO through the winter but it was mild for some reason regardless at least there was some winter that year...I looked at 2009-2012 temperature map and it's nothing like this October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Keep this thread on track as it's a good one. Troll each other in the banter thread. Thank you and please continue the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 4 hours ago, uncle W said: at least there was some winter that year...I looked at 2009-2012 temperature map and it's nothing like this October... October 2009 was brutally cold. I don't recall 2012 but I know it wasn't that cold. November 2009 if I remember right totally flipped warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 12 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: October 2009 was brutally cold. I don't recall 2012 but I know it wasn't that cold. November 2009 if I remember right totally flipped warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 21 hours ago, Stebo said: I'm not sold on the -EPO especially with the PDO dropping like it has, the warmth will be centered closer to the Aleutians and force the ridge there. With the ridge there it would force a trough in eastern AK and down the coast, which would go against any chance of a -EPO. Any one can nitpick indices to push their ideas and you would like a non east coast winter based on your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Any one can nitpick indices to push their ideas and you would like a non east coast winter based on your location. Of course I would like a non east coast winter, but the basis of my idea isn't because of not wanting an east coast winter. It is based upon pattern recognition and what I have been seeing thus far this fall. At least locally the summer and fall have followed 2007 very closely. I know the ENSO doesn't match that year with respect to negative anomalies in the tropics but the forcing locations and strength are very similar. To me this winter boils down to 3 things for the east coast, the PNA/NAO/AO. If the PNA is negative the winter will be focused further west, if the NAO is positive or negative but east based the winter will be focused further west and if the AO is positive or neutral the winter will be focused further west. Combine that with the EPO if it is positive there is no real cold source such that even if you have favorable conditions you have a hard time getting snow, see 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: Of course I would like a non east coast winter, but the basis of my idea isn't because of not wanting an east coast winter. It is based upon pattern recognition and what I have been seeing thus far this fall. At least locally the summer and fall have followed 2007 very closely. I know the ENSO doesn't match that year with respect to negative anomalies in the tropics but the forcing locations and strength are very similar. To me this winter boils down to 3 things for the east coast, the PNA/NAO/AO. If the PNA is negative the winter will be focused further west, if the NAO is positive or negative but east based the winter will be focused further west and if the AO is positive or neutral the winter will be focused further west. Combine that with the EPO if it is positive there is no real cold source such that even if you have favorable conditions you have a hard time getting snow, see 2011-12. I see no evidence of a + to = AO . In fact most OCT analogs will point to a -AO when OCT is 1 SD or greater BN leads us into a - AO during that winter / the same can be said for the EPO during the same time period as it correlates from D -M when the AO is NEG IN OCT . That - EPO will bend the Asian jet and the higher heights will allow HP to slide down the backside of the responding ridge on the WC . I see a trough in the means from the lakes into the NE . OCT 2011 - looks nothing like this OCT . 2013 is a little closer to where we are now . 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I see no evidence of a + to = AO . In fact most OCT analogs will point to a -AO when OCT is 1 SD or greater BN leads us into a - AO during that winter / the same can be said for the EPO during the same time period as it correlates from D -M when the AO is NEG IN OCT . That - EPO will bend the Asian jet and the higher heights will allow HP to slide down the backside of the responding ridge on the WC . I see a trough in the means from the lakes into the NE . OCT 2011 - looks nothing like this OCT . 2013 is a little closer to where we are now . 2016 Yeah I was just mentioning what could happen, I do believe the AO will be negative for the winter though. Not sure why you are bringing up 2011 though, this winter won't be like that. I only mentioned that winter because of what could go wrong with the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah I was just mentioning what could happen, I do believe the AO will be negative for the winter though. Where is your center point ? GL ish ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Just now, PB GFI said: Where is your center point ? GL ish ? I think the interior and eastern lakes will do the best, maybe something similar to 02-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 So if this has been discussed already sorry but observing - -AO more likely when the arctic/high latitude ocean temps are warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I think the interior and eastern lakes will do the best, maybe something similar to 02-03. Agree here . I think this place signs for 02/03 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 I prefer a GL center point.....keeps the storm track near, and there should be a greater incidence of wet snow across SNE.....favoring the interior. I'm sick of the sublimation specials that focus the prizes in oes plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 A +PNA pattern for this winter is extremely and I mean extremely unlikely. As far as the EPO I haven't really decided just yet but westerly QBO during a La Niña supports a poleward aleutian ridge. I also think the calls for +PDO are going to be wrong. I think it is negative this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 I'll take one period with a very negative AO and NAO and positive pna like last January...2009 and 2012 have the lowest monthly AO number but the nao was also quite negative...So far in Oct. 2016 we have a very negative AO but a positive nao so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A +PNA pattern for this winter is extremely and I mean extremely unlikely. As far as the EPO I haven't really decided just yet but westerly QBO during a La Niña supports a poleward aleutian ridge. I also think the calls for +PDO are going to be wrong. I think it is negative this winter I wouldn't say a +PNA pattern for the winter is unlikely, I think it will average negative but there will be large stretches of +PNA. I do agree that the +PDO isn't going to happen though, the PDO continues to sink further negative by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Of course I would like a non east coast winter, but the basis of my idea isn't because of not wanting an east coast winter. It is based upon pattern recognition and what I have been seeing thus far this fall. At least locally the summer and fall have followed 2007 very closely. I know the ENSO doesn't match that year with respect to negative anomalies in the tropics but the forcing locations and strength are very similar. To me this winter boils down to 3 things for the east coast, the PNA/NAO/AO. If the PNA is negative the winter will be focused further west, if the NAO is positive or negative but east based the winter will be focused further west and if the AO is positive or neutral the winter will be focused further west. Combine that with the EPO if it is positive there is no real cold source such that even if you have favorable conditions you have a hard time getting snow, see 2011-12. I see your point and some may disagree I'm sure, but where I live 2007-08 winter was'nt bad snowfall wise. While it was a little bit above normal, snowfall was around normal for northeast Pa. I don't believe this year has anthing in common with 2011-2012 which even then we saw more snow than last year for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Hot off the press is the IRI multi model plume for next few months. Solid signal for a weak La Nina this Winter. https://t.co/bOyQXHiAEI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Stebo said: I wouldn't say a +PNA pattern for the winter is unlikely, I think it will average negative but there will be large stretches of +PNA. I do agree that the +PDO isn't going to happen though, the PDO continues to sink further negative by the day. Short bouts of +PNA here and there maybe but a predominant +PNA? Very unlikely. -PNA should be the overall theme this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 3 hours ago, Stebo said: Of course I would like a non east coast winter, but the basis of my idea isn't because of not wanting an east coast winter. It is based upon pattern recognition and what I have been seeing thus far this fall. At least locally the summer and fall have followed 2007 very closely. I know the ENSO doesn't match that year with respect to negative anomalies in the tropics but the forcing locations and strength are very similar. To me this winter boils down to 3 things for the east coast, the PNA/NAO/AO. If the PNA is negative the winter will be focused further west, if the NAO is positive or negative but east based the winter will be focused further west and if the AO is positive or neutral the winter will be focused further west. Combine that with the EPO if it is positive there is no real cold source such that even if you have favorable conditions you have a hard time getting snow, see 2011-12. I see much discussion of 13/14 floating around, but I think it will be difficult to achieve that type of robust, protracted -EPO ridging this winter. Still early for me, but I'm not sold on significant blocking in any high latitude domain just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 18 minutes ago, Isotherm said: I see much discussion of 13/14 floating around, but I think it will be difficult to achieve that type of robust, protracted -EPO ridging this winter. Still early for me, but I'm not sold on significant blocking in any high latitude domain just yet. Are you also seeing a poleward Aleutian ridge dominating with the Niña, westerly QBO in place? Was thinking about it today and I agree with you on the EPO. I also think this will be a -PDO winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Morris said: Hot off the press is the IRI multi model plume for next few months. Solid signal for a weak La Nina this Winter. https://t.co/bOyQXHiAEI Just saw that as well. The models keep it as a weak CP Nina through winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just saw that as well. The models keep it as a weak CP Nina through winter And NOAA's new forecast has our area as EC for the winter in a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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