SnowGoose69 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I wonder if the Euro initialization of the strong -AO drop this month combined with the record warm WPAC caused it to go so extreme for Dec into Jan? We have just gotten so used to late starting winters since 2012-2013 that I guess that solution would be a real stand out. Well perhaps this year a raging October -AO will correlate as it usually had to a -AO winter...it sure did not work out that way in 14-15 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Seems like the November record Bering Sea 925 mb low and near record -EPO ridge pump may have disrupted the usual process that year. One of the few times that the November -EPO pattern was so extreme that it locked in for the winter instead of the October -AO signal. I also recall them blaming it on some oddball high in Siberia which may have formed due to overly extensive early snow if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 I was just flipping through the AO data since you guys made me curious. This year isn't really doing what 14-15 did. 14-15 had the AO tank early in the month and then stay around neutral for the remainder. Perhaps typhoon Nuri ET played some role that year, but that didn't happen till Nov. This year however already tanked, and now it looks to tank again. Does it remain negative for the balance of the month? Didn't see any recent years that looked quite like this for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Just now, EasternLI said: I was just flipping through the AO data since you guys made me curious. This year isn't really doing what 14-15 did. 14-15 had the AO tank early in the month and then stay around neutral for the remainder. Perhaps typhoon Nuri ET played some role that year, but that didn't happen till Nov. This year however already tanked, and now it looks to tank again. Does it remain negative for the balance of the month? Didn't see any recent years that looked quite like this for October. I thought October 2000 had a very negative October AO but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 top 20 coldest Decembers in NYC since 1950......The months AO and lowest daily AO and weather at the time...only 1983 had a plus AO for the month but barely... year...ave temp....monthly AO...Low daily AO...date...weather around ao low... 1989.....25.9..........-0.644..........-3.482.....12/10...very cold pattern locked in...cold brown Christmas... 1958.....29.4..........-1.687..........-3.782.....12/21...cold brown Christmas... 1955.....29.7..........-0.444..........-2.507.....12/11...cold dry pattern locked in...light snow before Christmas melts before the Eve... 1976.....29.9..........-2.074..........-5.287.....12/29...light snow and cold...snow Christmas night... 1960.....30.9..........-0.343..........-1.946.....12/9...Blizzard 12/11-12...1" snow depth Christmas morning... 2000.....31.1..........-2.354..........-4.688.....12/29...blizzard 12/30...trace on the ground Christmas morning... 1963.....31.2..........-1.178..........-4.470.....12/20...snowstorm 12/23...5" on the ground Christmas morning... 1962.....31.5..........-0.711..........-4.159.....12/31...4 degrees 12/31...light snow Christmas day... 1995.....32.4..........-2.127..........-4.353.....12/19...snowstorm 12/19...3" snow depth with flurries Christmas day... 1980.....32.5..........-0.057..........-2.553.....12/6...light snow Christmas eve...-1 Christmas day... 2010.....32.8..........-2.631..........-5.265.....12/18...blizzard 12/26...post white Christmas... 1969.....33.4..........-0.783..........-3.714.....12/30...freezing rain...snow Christmas night... 1985.....34.2..........-1.948..........-3.783.....12/1...wet flurries Christmas day...White Christmas Jersey shore... 1968.....34.3..........-0.783..........-4.457.....12/27...light snow 12/28...brown cold Christmas... 1970.....34.4..........-0.399..........-2.530.....12/29...snowstorm Jan. 1st...light snow/sleet 12/22-24...1" snow depth Christmas day... 1950.....35.0..........-1.928..........-4.353.....12/27...coldest day and snowiest day on 12/27...brown Christmas... 1983.....35.2.........+0.186..........-2.252.....12/20...light snow Christmas eve...4 degrees Christmas day... 2005.....35.3..........-2.104..........-3.569.....12/5...snow 12/5...brown Christmas... 1961.....35.5..........-1.668..........-3.959.....12/26...snowstorm 12/23-24...6" snow depth Chriatmas morning... 1966.....35.7..........-1.401..........-4.147.....12/13...wet snow and rain 12/14...snowstorm Christmas eve... 1977.....35.7..........-0.240..........-3.071.....12/7...brown Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thought October 2000 had a very negative October AO but I could be wrong. I took a little better look just now. I found 5 years that were negative Octobers that tanked at least a couple times. I stopped looking at 1995, so there very well maybe others. 4 out of 5 of these were weenie winters out here. The closest to that type of look: 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012 To a lesser extent : 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 44 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I took a little better look just now. I found 5 years that were negative Octobers that tanked at least a couple times. I stopped looking at 1995, so there very well maybe others. 4 out of 5 of these were weenie winters out here. The closest to that type of look: 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012 To a lesser extent : 2010 So I looked all the way back to 1950 since I had some time. Only found 4 more years reasonably similar. 1960, 1966, 1968, 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 speaking of analogues I know Brett Anderson just came out with his winter outlook for Canada and he is using the analogs of 2013/14 and 2005 / 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: So I looked all the way back to 1950 since I had some time. Only found 4 more years reasonably similar. 1960, 1966, 1968, 1979 There were a few duds for sure but most of the dud winters actually ended up having the -AO, they just failed to produce for whatever reason. 06-07 mostly failed outside of the AO going negative in February. 2012-13 the AO was mostly negative all winter but it was rarely cold and most of the snow came in one storm. 1974-75 was another one where the AO spent most of the winter positive after being over -1 in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: speaking of analogues I know Brett Anderson just came out with his winter outlook for Canada and he is using the analogs of 2013/14 and 2005 / 06 05/06 is like the hobo's version of 89/90 and 00/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There were a few duds for sure but most of the dud winters actually ended up having the -AO, they just failed to produce for whatever reason. 06-07 mostly failed outside of the AO going negative in February. 2012-13 the AO was mostly negative all winter but it was rarely cold and most of the snow came in one storm. 1974-75 was another one where the AO spent most of the winter positive after being over -1 in October Yeah, 06-07 and 79-80, respectively, were the bottom of the barrel out of those years. All the others I would take, no problem. 1974-75 was a little odd. The AO was negative to start the month, but then spiked to +1 mid month very briefly, then fluctuated back and forth between neg and neutral for the rest of the month. It's going to be interesting to see how this year unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, 06-07 and 79-80, respectively, were the bottom of the barrel out of those years. All the others I would take, no problem. 1974-75 was a little odd. The AO was negative to start the month, but then spiked to +1 mid month very briefly, then fluctuated back and forth between neg and neutral for the rest of the month. It's going to be interesting to see how this year unfolds. The best example ever of a strongly -AO with mild weather or a bad pattern in winter is December 2012. It's probably a needle in the haystack type deal but it shows you how you can get a terrible pattern even with that index well in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 the top 14 positive Decembers average 1.8" of snow...The top 14 negative AO Decembers average 7.2" of snow...out of the 15 snowiest Decembers only three had a plus AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/16/2016 at 4:11 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, it will be interesting to see how much of an influence the western Pacific forcing has with record SST's for September out there in the blue box below. Can you post the citation for the initial image? That paper looks like a good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Here's the latest JMA 3-month forecast, for what it's worth. Not certain of its accuracy beyond the 1-month lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 15 hours ago, EasternLI said: So I looked all the way back to 1950 since I had some time. Only found 4 more years reasonably similar. 1960, 1966, 1968, 1979 1966 matches up well..my #1 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Eurosips out yesterday say this is no way to run a NINA http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016100100,2928,2017013100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 I know there's been some discussion on the subject already, but Anthony Masiello had a few interesting tweets regarding the Indian Ocean and tropical forcing. He noted how strong the westerly wind anomalies have been in the Indian Ocean have been so far this autumn and also provided a list of the other years with strong westerly wind anomalies in the autumn. He also noted how similar the tropical forcing is this year compared to those years. (The exception is that there's more off-equator OLR this year. He blamed that on the positive QBO and global warming.) I decided to take a look at what the tropical forcing was like during the winters of the years on the list and found that the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean does tend to weaken and the strongest forcing shifts north toward the Philippines. It's interesting that the POAMA model suggests the same thing will happen this winter and, indeed, it's OLR forecast for winter looks very similar to the other years on the list. As far as winter is concerned, it's interesting to note that the years on the list generally led to warm winters in the east. The more recent years in particular were very warm in the east. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it was a really good read. It's fortunate that the whole paper is available free of charge. http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1738&context=psc_facpub&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dnorth%2Bamerican%2Bwinter%2Bdipole%2B2013-2014%26hl%3Den%26gbv%3D2%26oq%3Dnorth%2Bamerican%2Bwinter%2Bdipole%2B2013-2014%26gs_l%3Dheirloom-serp.3...12300.15374.0.15957.10.1.0.9.0.0.63.63.1.1.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-serp..10.0.0.aYhDYc4bPlc#search="north american winter dipole 2013-2014" Great, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 6 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: 1966 matches up well..my #1 analog I've had an eye on that one too and also 1983-84. Mainly since both followed fairly potent Nino's and were weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I like 1966 and wish it would happen again...September and October 2016 are starting out different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 6 hours ago, Tim198 said: I know there's been some discussion on the subject already, but Anthony Masiello had a few interesting tweets regarding the Indian Ocean and tropical forcing. He noted how strong the westerly wind anomalies have been in the Indian Ocean have been so far this autumn and also provided a list of the other years with strong westerly wind anomalies in the autumn. He also noted how similar the tropical forcing is this year compared to those years. (The exception is that there's more off-equator OLR this year. He blamed that on the positive QBO and global warming.) I decided to take a look at what the tropical forcing was like during the winters of the years on the list and found that the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean does tend to weaken and the strongest forcing shifts north toward the Philippines. It's interesting that the POAMA model suggests the same thing will happen this winter and, indeed, it's OLR forecast for winter looks very similar to the other years on the list. As far as winter is concerned, it's interesting to note that the years on the list generally led to warm winters in the east. The more recent years in particular were very warm in the east. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. Interesting post. I dug a bit deeper into the years that you have here. So, I took a look at the ONI for all these years, I suggest we could toss a great deal of these just based on ENSO alone. There are 2 that are reasonable enough to keep in there. One winter was a bit BN, one was a bit AN. I'm just not seeing much of a signal with this by itself. Tossed: 1950 - 2nd year nina 1952 - warm neutral 1975 - 3rd year nina 1998 - mod nina 1974 - 2nd year nina 1996 - neg. neutral after nina 2001 - neg. neutral after nina 1971 - 2nd year nina 1988 - strong nina 1973 - strong nina 1981 - 2nd year neutral Reasonably close: 1964 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 if the pattern we are in changes in mid November like 1995 all is good...if the pattern waits until the second week of December 1966 all is good...if it continues like last year all is not good and we will be looking for a second half comeback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just posting the comparisons to last week. Latest values: Nino 1.2: +1.0 (+0.9) Nino 3: -0.1 (+0.5) Nino 3.4: -0.6 (+0.3) Nino 4: -0.4 (+0.2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 19 hours ago, Tim198 said: I know there's been some discussion on the subject already, but Anthony Masiello had a few interesting tweets regarding the Indian Ocean and tropical forcing. He noted how strong the westerly wind anomalies have been in the Indian Ocean have been so far this autumn and also provided a list of the other years with strong westerly wind anomalies in the autumn. He also noted how similar the tropical forcing is this year compared to those years. (The exception is that there's more off-equator OLR this year. He blamed that on the positive QBO and global warming.) I decided to take a look at what the tropical forcing was like during the winters of the years on the list and found that the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean does tend to weaken and the strongest forcing shifts north toward the Philippines. It's interesting that the POAMA model suggests the same thing will happen this winter and, indeed, it's OLR forecast for winter looks very similar to the other years on the list. As far as winter is concerned, it's interesting to note that the years on the list generally led to warm winters in the east. The more recent years in particular were very warm in the east. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. He was warm in 13/14 . Now I do find it interesting that a new Rockland ish poster to the board also leans warm and also follows HM on Twitter ? To quote one of my least favorite posters mmhmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I don't do twitter so I'm out of the loop... is antmasiello really the real HM?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 minute ago, uncle W said: I don't do twitter so I'm out of the loop... is antmasiello really the real HM?... Yes unc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 52 minutes ago, PB GFI said: He was warm in 13/14 . Now I do find it interesting that a new Rockland ish poster to the board also leans warm and also follows HM on Twitter ? To quote one of my least favorite posters mmhmmmmmm. nice observation there PB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I'd rather have a good storm track during October or November over how cold it is...Octobers and Novembers before our snowiest winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 3 hours ago, PB GFI said: He was warm in 13/14 . Now I do find it interesting that a new Rockland ish poster to the board also leans warm and also follows HM on Twitter ? To quote one of my least favorite posters mmhmmmmmm. I assure you I only post under my name and have only one account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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