snowman19 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Accuweather ( back in June ) called for La Nina to come back http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/06/accuweather-gives-their-la-nina-outlook-here-are-the-winners-and-losers Weak La Nina would be nice The National Weather Service just made themselves look really incompetent again. It was clear as day that the La Niña wasn't going to a La Nada like they predicted back when they cancelled the watch. Maybe someone should explain to them what tropical instability waves are and what they do during developing La Ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The National Weather Service just made themselves look really incompetent again. It was clear as day that the La Niña wasn't going to a La Nada like they predicted back when they cancelled the watch. Maybe someone should explain to them what tropical instability waves are and what they do during developing La Ninas It may go to La Nada, it's a La Nina Watch for a reason. Doesn't mean a weak La Nina is a lock, but NWS shouldn't have dropped the watch regardless based on what models had forecasted (borderline weak la nina to la nada). https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-alert-system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The National Weather Service just made themselves look really incompetent again. It was clear as day that the La Niña wasn't going to a La Nada like they predicted back when they cancelled the watch. Maybe someone should explain to them what tropical instability waves are and what they do during developing La Ninas LOL yeah, seriously. You and I both didn't like that they cancelled the watch in the first place. Made no sense, and I was never even on the full-board Nina train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 the stronger la nina's that were under -1.0 for the DJF period averaged 14" of snow for the eight season...1973-74 with 23.5" was the snowiest...When you get to the winters that are less than -1.0 oni you have 2010-11, 1955-56 and 1995-96 in the mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 One thing I haven't researched is if west vs east based for Ninas matters when the Nina is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 hours ago, Dsnowx53 said: One thing I haven't researched is if west vs east based for Ninas matters when the Nina is pretty weak. Talked about this yesterday. Griteater from the southeast forum found research on this and did some of his own. He posted the following over in their forum the other day: Here is an article on east-based vs modoki Ninas as well: http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo2-english.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 4 hours ago, uncle W said: the stronger la nina's that were under -1.0 for the DJF period averaged 14" of snow for the eight season...1973-74 with 23.5" was the snowiest...When you get to the winters that are less than -1.0 oni you have 2010-11, 1955-56 and 1995-96 in the mix... 2010-11 and 1955-56 were definitely stronger than -1.0 ONI. Peaked around -1.5 and -1.6, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Just now, andyhb said: 2010-11 and 1955-56 were definitely stronger than -1.0 ONI. Peaked around -1.5 and -1.6, respectively. I was talking oni for DJF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 the soi is at its lowest point since around June...it's down to -25 as of today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Solid -IOD continues and is expected to continue into next year. This is really enhancing the La Niña response in the atmosphere. HM tweeted about this a few days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Good stuff with the -IOD. Seems to be the dominant feature thus far this month as well. At least according to these charts of H2 VP. I'd also like to mention, IF it ends up being the -IOD driving the bus this winter, the H5 composite says we'll see plenty more WAR and a ++NAO. So it'll be interesting to see where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Good stuff with the -IOD. Seems to be the dominant feature thus far this month as well. At least according to these charts of H2 VP. I'd also like to mention, IF it ends up being the -IOD driving the bus this winter, the H5 composite says we'll see plenty more WAR and a ++NAO. So it'll be interesting to see where we go from here. Thus far, there has been strong -IOD forcing in the pattern looking at the OLR charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Thus far, there has been strong -IOD forcing in the pattern looking at the OLR charts Yes, I agree. That plus the wind anomalies Bluewave posted illustrate that. I should have just said that this adds to the evidence of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: At least in terms of forcing near Indonesia, September was closest to what we experienced during the winters of 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. But that isn't to say we know what if any elements from those winters repeat again this year and what may be different in other regions important to the sensible weather in the winter. That's a great post. So, I decided to look at the past 30 days for all years available on the H2 VP charts and see how they line up with this year. They go back to 1958. Out of all of the years available, going back to 1958, the two years that you mentioned are the closest to what we're looking at now. The closest match to this year out of those two, is what we saw heading into the 2013-2014 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 The La Niña standing wave has set up. Mike Ventrice just chimed in on this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The La Niña standing wave has set up. Mike Ventrice just chimed in on this: 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The La Niña standing wave has set up. Mike Ventrice just chimed in on this: And what does this say about the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 16 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: And what does this say about the upcoming winter? Here's a better view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 25 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: And what does this say about the upcoming winter? It hasn't been tweeted yet, so snowman can't answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: You can see the new Euro seasonal focusing most of the convective forcing near Eastern Indonesia and east of the Philippines for the winter forecast. I like the dry areas W of California on into the SW. That looks to be hinting at ridging on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You can see the new Euro seasonal focusing most of the convective forcing near Eastern Indonesia and east of the Philippines for the winter forecast. That actually argues for the warm waters in the tropical west Pacific having more of an influence. The dry signal south of Japan and the lack of a wet signal over Australia argue the same. I'm wondering if the -IOD transitioning to neutral/positive through the winter allows the tropical west Pacific to have more of a say. We recently had a negative spike in the IOD, however it's modeled to transition to neutral/positive by Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Question is does a strong -IOD transition to neutral come February and March change the forcing effects from it significantly if at all? There would still be residual effects. I would think there would have to be a more pronounced change into a solid +IOD mode to cause a flip. Then you also have to consider lag effects since any hypothetical change in forcing would not be immediate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Still can`t shake that warm water in the EP region . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 23 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: And what does this say about the upcoming winter? Obviously nothing good, or else he wouldn't have posted it. My guess is that its a manifestation of the insanely negative IOD. I like him, though because he is a good point of reference...there are certain posters whom act as great gauges as to how things are going by how and what they post. #biasisnotwithoututility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 19 hours ago, EasternLI said: That actually argues for the warm waters in the tropical west Pacific having more of an influence. The dry signal south of Japan and the lack of a wet signal over Australia argue the same. I'm wondering if the -IOD transitioning to neutral/positive through the winter allows the tropical west Pacific to have more of a say. We recently had a negative spike in the IOD, however it's modeled to transition to neutral/positive by Feb. Negligible -IOD by December....I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Weekly ENSO update, modoki weak La Niña continues: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: There is such a tiny area of cool water along the equator that the surrounding warm water keeps mixing in with the TIW's. Nino 1+2 still looks like it's in El Nino mode this week. That configuration with 1+2 very warm is common and textbook with modoki La Niña events. That part is not unusual at all or something that is just happening this year. 1+2 downwells during modoki Ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Negligible -IOD by December....I like that. Honest question, we are coming off a record, strongly negative IOD event for several months now. All the forcings and feedbacks with it are already taking place. If it does in fact go neutral in December, do you think that causes a major shift in what we have now with no residual effects or lags? Do you think neutral does anything to greatly change it? In my own opinion I think you would need a shift into a solid positive mode to greatly alter anything and even then there would be a lag. I doubt neutral is enough of a change but maybe I'm wrong. As of now, no models are forecasting a jump into positive mode for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Honest question, we are coming off a record, strongly negative IOD event for several months now. All the forcings and feedbacks with it are already taking place. If it does in fact go neutral in December, do you think that causes a major shift in what we have now with no residual effects or lags? Do you think neutral does anything to greatly change it? In my own opinion I think you would need a shift into a solid positive mode to greatly alter anything and even then there would be a lag. I doubt neutral is enough of a change but maybe I'm wrong. As of now, no models are forecasting a jump into positive mode for this winter Perhaps not, but December usually blows for snowfall where I am on the cp, anyway. I do believe that that portends promise for the heart of winter, though. Regardless, it will not be 12/15, so I will have chances at this latitude in December, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I wonder if the Euro initialization of the strong -AO drop this month combined with the record warm WPAC caused it to go so extreme for Dec into Jan? We have just gotten so used to late starting winters since 2012-2013 that I guess that solution would be a real stand out. I'm not sure why folks can't fathom a quick start...it is la nina climo.....ssts of off Indonesia not withstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will certainly be interesting to see if that forecast materializes once we start watching the late November EPS solutions for the start of December. I'm only suggesting that it may perhaps be prudent to entertain the notion, rather than even venture to forecast it, but I do not expect another December catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.