Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +0.6 (-0.2) Nino 3: -0.2 (-0.1) Nino 3.4: -0.8 (-0.4) Nino 4: -0.5 (-0.3) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 56 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I'll take this in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 oh god not the seasonal models again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: oh god not the seasonal models again I think the seasonal models are worth looking at but that SST CA model performed very poorly last year so I'd take what is shows with a very large grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The PDO drop continues. Down to -1.06 in September. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 7:19 PM, uncle W said: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data The PDO is getting even more negative, look at the latest 7 day change. We haven't seen a PDO at over -1 for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Still positive on the official data set. Notice all the warm water south of Alaska and south and east of Hawaii. But the very strong NPAC summer HP cooled the SST right along the California Coast. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48 2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01 2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 That warm pool near AK has been retrograding over the last couple of months. Should that continue the PDO is going to fall off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 7:19 PM, uncle W said: The models have a massive Gulf of Alaska low developing. That will do huge damage to all those warm SSTs and cause cold waters to develop in that entire area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: It all depends on what the NP pressure pattern does from now into the winter. The key to maintaining the warm water and ridging south of Alaska will be how warm the WPAC remains which has been driving that record ridge and SST pattern. The Arctic pattern will also be important as to where the exact 500 mb ridges and troughs line up. The warmth near Japan and northeast has been increasing and getting warmer, I am wondering if the ridge will even shift a bit further west with time. If that happens the coastal areas will most certainly cool even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 5:51 PM, Stebo said: The warmth near Japan and northeast has been increasing and getting warmer, I am wondering if the ridge will even shift a bit further west with time. If that happens the coastal areas will most certainly cool even more. The blob is about to disappear, huge Gulf of Alaska low/vortex coming That will cause massive cooling of the SSTS in the Gulf of Alaska and along the British Columbia and US west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The blob is about to disappear, huge Gulf of Alaska low/vortex coming That will cause massive cooling of the SSTS in the Gulf of Alaska and along the British Columbia and US west coast You may know this but most do not....but the blob disappeared mid-September through October in 2013 from a similar pattern. I'm pointing this out because of how quickly folks forget & will make implications for winter based on this upcoming pattern...BIG MISTAKE. Here's the 500mb map for the period of September 15-OCtober 15, 2013: Here's what happened to the blob: This image is from August 26,2013 This image is from October 7, 2013 Blob was eliminated!! Now, the blob slowly emerged again in the GOA by DEC, but with a -PDO. One must keep this in mind & be careful drawing winter implications. A similar unfolding may be occurring this fall with a -PDO emerging similar to 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 28 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: You may know this but most do not....but the blob disappeared mid-September through October in 2013 from a similar pattern. I'm pointing this out because of how quickly folks forget & will make implications for winter based on this upcoming pattern...BIG MISTAKE. Here's the 500mb map for the period of September 15-OCtober 15, 2013: Here's what happened to the blob: This image is from August 26,2013 This image is from October 7, 2013 Blob was eliminated!! Now, the blob slowly emerged again in the GOA by DEC, but with a -PDO. One must keep this in mind & be careful drawing winter implications. A similar unfolding may be occurring this fall with a -PDO emerging similar to 2013. Something to also keep in mind, we did not have a modoki La Niña in 2013-2014 nor a +QBO like we will this winter. Those 2 things have big implications on the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The blob is about to disappear, huge Gulf of Alaska low/vortex coming That will cause massive cooling of the SSTS in the Gulf of Alaska and along the British Columbia and US west 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Something to also keep in mind, we did not have a modoki La Niña in 2013-2014 nor a +QBO like we will this winter. Those 2 things have big implications on the pattern #1 We did indeed have a +QBO that winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index #2 We had a weak -ENSO. Not a full La Nina but this Nina will be very weak....modoki not a given for DJF #3 My post was about the blob not a repeat of 2013-14 winter. I never said that nor implied that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: #1 We did indeed have a +QBO that winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index #2 We had a weak -ENSO. Not a full La Nina but this Nina will be very weak....modoki not a given for DJF #3 My post was about the blob not a repeat of 2013-14 winter. I never said that nor implied that. I stand corrected, I thought that winter was -QBO. I realize you weren't implying that, just musing using it as an analog in general. Whether the blob comes back obviously remains to be seen, but I think a -PDO winter is a very good bet based on where we are now and the progression over the last several months. As far as a modoki, it hasn't wavered from a modoki Niña configuration since it started and every model is and has been keeping it as a weak modoki event run after run. But we shall see where we stand come November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Dec, 2013 was a weak -PDO. Jan/Feb transitioned to a weak +PDO. A weak +PDO or weak -PDO didn't drive that winter, nor did weak -ENSO. A peer reviewed paper on that winter blames the very warm N. PAC causing persistent HP & a dominant -EPO. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0084.1?journalCode=apme Others certainly disagree on the warm SST's causing HP rather than the other way around. Nevertheless, that was the conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Look on the bright side, there is no way this winter is possibly going to be worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Look on the bright side, there is no way this winter is possibly going to be worse than last year. Depends upon the standard of assessment you're referring to. It will be difficult to achieve a warmer winter than last year, but snowfall wise it was a good to very good winter for the coastal plain up through NJ/LI/Coastal SNE. We could easily have a warm winter with well below normal snowfall, which arguably, would be worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Look on the bright side, there is no way this winter is possibly going to be worse than last year. There are a few people posting about it on twitter today but the Atlantic is starting to look real unfavorable for high latitude blocking ssta wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2016 Author Share Posted October 9, 2016 A bit ot but this is from orhwxman regarding the euro monthlies I believe. They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are a few people posting about it on twitter today but the Atlantic is starting to look real unfavorable for high latitude blocking ssta wise Anything is possible ... Hearing the Euro seasonal is advertising a -NOA from Nov thru March . Not sure I have ever seen that guidance bend that way for that long of a period. I really want to see what this looks like in November, these early returns sometimes need touching up. But it was a real bullish look from a VG model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Just now, PB GFI said: Anything is possible ... Hearing the Euro seasonal is advertising a -NOA from Nov thru March . Not sure I have ever seen that guidance bend that way for that long of a period. I really want to see what this looks like in November, these early returns sometimes need touching up. But it was a real bullish look from a VG model. I think we need to wait until the beginning of November to make judgements. Never understood why winter outlooks are made in August or September. Even October is borderline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think we need to wait until the beginning of November to make judgements. Never understood why winter outlooks are made in August or September. Even October is borderline... I think there is some real skill in the L/R forecasting space . The problem is what looks like a analog in Aug sometimes evolves into something different by November. I respect the skill of those that can see out 3 to 6 months , but I've seen a lot change as we get closer over the years , so for me I will wait. But you know I'm rooting for the Euro here , just not making it my forecast yet ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are a few people posting about it on twitter today but the Atlantic is starting to look real unfavorable for high latitude blocking ssta wise That would be bad for the coastal plain and also your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are a few people posting about it on twitter today but the Atlantic is starting to look real unfavorable for high latitude blocking ssta wise I guess that also goes for the few people on Twitter like you said it's a little too early to make judgment let's wait till November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I'm just rooting for a Dec. look like this, due to the warm western tropical Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 4 hours ago, PB GFI said: I think there is some real skill in the L/R forecasting space . The problem is what looks like a analog in Aug sometimes evolves into something different by November. I respect the skill of those that can see out 3 to 6 months , but I've seen a lot change as we get closer over the years , so for me I will wait. But you know I'm rooting for the Euro here , just not making it my forecast yet ..... We'll said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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