thunderbolt Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Nowhere did I say anything more than weak in there. But as usual thunderbolt, superb post. Very insightful and riveting you imply by using all adjectives that it's going to stronger than what it is everybody could see through you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 44 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: you imply by using all adjectives that it's going to stronger than what it is everybody could see through you ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Any drop probably wouldn't be much below what we saw recently as the subsurface cool pool isn't that impressive. Plus the trades haven't been all that impressive for what you normally see this time of year. They have been much weaker than say September 2010. I agree, I don't see this being more than a weak modoki Niña event. The +SOI continues, which supports a short, temporary TIW induced rise in temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Be interesting to see if the official dataset shows warming over the last week like tropical tidbits does. Based on the map below, I would say it would. There were numerous pockets of BN tempts in the equatorial PAC a week or more ago and they're all gone now. The problem with this NINA is that it waxes and wanes and the background/starting state was very warm. Even if the models are correct with the upcoming trades, it's still fighting an uphill battle. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 I would like to see if we could hold onto this look for another 8 to 12 weeks . I like the look for the GL/OHV/UMW this far away. The N PAC is so warm , it could just overpower the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 How we finished snow wise . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Based on the map below, I would say it would. There were numerous pockets of BN tempts in the equatorial PAC a week or more ago and they're all gone now. The problem with this NINA is that it waxes and wanes and the background/starting state was very warm. Even if the models are correct with the upcoming trades, it's still fighting an uphill battle. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif SSTS aside, there is a clear atmospheric response to ENSO. We are in La Niña mode, -AAM, +SOI, OLR in Niña mode. Here is a real good illustration: Niña standing wave setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 The Weather Channel has released their winter forecast. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc some key points: Quote Any colder-than-average air in the East may not persist long this winter, according to Crawford, thanks, in part, to the change to neutral or weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Quote "The reversal of tropical forcing suggests that the coldest weather in the eastern U.S, may occur earlier in the winter, with increasing chances for warmth during the late winter," Crawford said in the release. Quote "The expected lack of (atmospheric) blocking should result in the bulk of Arctic air sliding eastward, with only glancing blows into the eastern U.S.," Crawford said. Quote "Climate model forecasts for winter are unusually warm, likely reflecting the excess post-El-Nino global warmth, and another very warm winter is not out of the question due to this factor alone." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: SSTS aside, there is a clear atmospheric response to ENSO. We are in La Niña mode, -AAM, +SOI, OLR in Niña mode. Here is a real good illustration: Niña standing wave setting up Huh. Thats weird. Just saw that same image on twitter a couple hours ago. I wonder if you are the person that posted it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see the official CPC numbers Monday morning when the tropical tidbits CDAS shows such a big rise in just the last week. Sheesh that's showing a borderline weak el niño. What's causing such a spike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Sheesh that's showing a borderline weak el niño. What's causing such a spike? MJO moved into COD and Tropical Instability Waves. The MJO is forecasted to re-emerge again this week, also big trade wind burst/easterlies forecasted. Region 3.4 should drop to weak Niña levels again fairly quickly. It is abundantly clear that it will be nothing more than a weak modoki Niña this year. Looking at the North Pacific 7 day SST change, the PDO continues to drop. It is restructuring into a classic -PDO alignment: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Fwiw, the trade winds have been trending to meh... Previously, they were progged to be much stronger than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Latest values: Nino 1.2: +0.8 (+0.6) Nino 3: -0.1 (+0.1) Nino 3.4: -0.4 (+0.2) Nino 4: -0.2 (-) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Way too much residual El Nino heat left in the Pacific, especially the tropics 20N to 20S, for significant La Nina development. It's the opposite of the Summer 2012 El Nino that couldn't develop with so much cold water leftover from the 2010-2012 La Nina. I think we all agree on a weak modoki La Niña now. Even if it ends up as a cold-neutral modoki, the results will be the exact same atmospherically as a weak Niña. There is no difference between a cold-neutral and a weak La Niña as far as long wave patterns and feedbacks go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think we all agree on a weak modoki La Niña now. Even if it ends up as a cold-neutral modoki, the results will be the exact same atmospherically as a weak Niña. There is no difference between a cold-neutral and a weak La Niña as far as long wave patterns and feedbacks go I think everybody already agreed on a consensus except for you aka cold - neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 3 hours ago, thunderbolt said: I think everybody already agreed on a consensus except for you aka cold - neutral 3 hours ago, thunderbolt said: I think everybody already agreed on a consensus except for you aka cold - neutral Maybe in your world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On Monday, June 06, 2016 at 11:52 AM, snowman19 said: On Monday, June 06, 2016 at 11:20 AM, PB GFI said: Like last year , It is prob a bit early but the CFS ( winter ) and European ( Nov ) have more of a basin wide look . Saw that. I always take the CFS with a grain of salt lol. I do think at least a high end moderate event is a very good possibility though... oh really!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Moderators please stop this. Once again, "thunderbolt" is derailing this thread 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You're a half wit moron. That was back in June when the models were showing a strong La Niña. I already said that's not going to happen and have been saying weak but you're too stupid, dumb and ignorant to realize that. Stop the trolling and derailing of this thread idiot Not a fan of irony i see? If you dont like old posts being brought up, maybe consider not being so bombastic and try to speak in less absolute terms...the weather can and should humble even the most talented meteorologists. This is supposed to be a discussion board for learning and sharing ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Subsurface cold anomalies strengthening again in region 3.4 #ModokiLaNina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Confused North Pacific 500 mb response to the current ENSO neutral borderline weak Nina conditions. October starts out with a -EPO but switches to +EPO. El Nino Octobers are correlated to a -EPO with La Ninas to +EPO. As expected, Ninos 3.4 and 4 are dropping very rapidly again. In fact, Nino region 4 is the coldest its been in many years at over -0.6C. The models are back to showing a modoki weak La Niña for this winter. Meanwhile, region 1+2 remains above normal, over +0.1C, classic modoki configuration: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim198 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Plenty of warmth for the east this winter on the latest CANSIPS run. It also suggests a pattern favoring cutters with above average precip near the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/1/2016 at 10:35 AM, bluewave said: Pretty dramatic 7 day SST changes across the Pacific Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Big drop in the weeklies for Regions 3.4 and 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Solid positive (westerly) QBO for winter looks like a lock. The QBO continues rising, the number for September just came out at +10.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 UKMET SEASONAL SAYS GET READY , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The CFS says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The CFS says no Neither does the CANSIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I take the climate models this far away lightly . Same lead time , this is what the CFS showed then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Solid positive (westerly) QBO for winter looks like a lock. The QBO continues rising, the number for September just came out at +10.48 Not much higher than the August update. Hopefully it peaked, and will start heading towards 0 soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 the QBO has been way positive for two consecutive Septembers...This is the first time this has been recorded...QBO records go back to 1948...there have been two consecutive negative years but never two positive... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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