La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[EasternLI]

That was an old run of the CCSM4 you guys were looking at. From July.

 

Here is the September run:

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That was an old run of the CCSM4 you guys were looking at. From July.

 

Here is the September run:

 

That is a -PDO it's showing, look at the warm water, it's shifted west. Classic -PDO

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

That is a -PDO it's showing, look at the warm water, it's shifted west. Classic -PDO

That forecast is for the 3 month average, so comparing it to current ssta and the examples of a - and + PDO, the forecast looks more likely to "average" neutral (assuming that it's right.)

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

That is a -PDO it's showing, look at the warm water, it's shifted west. Classic -PDO

It is kind of in between, the problem is that it isn't representing the cooling along the coast correctly, that area is continuing to cool more to neutral. That projection is like the CFS which is going to end up being wrong unless the massive warm pool which has been retrograding suddenly shifts back east quickly in the next 2 months.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw,  CFS2 more like a weak +PDO

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It is kind of in between, the problem is that it isn't representing the cooling along the coast correctly, that area is continuing to cool more to neutral. That projection is like the CFS which is going to end up being wrong unless the massive warm pool which has been retrograding suddenly shifts back east quickly in the next 2 months.

Yep that's the thing, the warm waters have been shifting west to a -PDO configuration for months now. The cooling waters off the west coast are indicative of a regime shift 

[nzucker]

I think models are playing catch-up to the falling PDO, and that may include the La Nina as well, with increasing trade winds.

Also the CFS shows widespread warmth in the Southern Ocean, which has been cooling for years. I doubt that is correct given current SSTs and recent trends.

In terms of the winter forecast, I think the weak Nina means we may have our chances this winter. I could see one or two months being colder than normal...my guess now is January and March. Although Ninas often have decent Decembers like 2010, 2007, 2005, I wouldn't be surprised if the fall warmth carries over.

BTW, great convo to all involved.

[Stebo]

40 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think models are playing catch-up to the falling PDO, and that may include the La Nina as well, with increasing trade winds.

Also the CFS shows widespread warmth in the Southern Ocean, which has been cooling for years. I doubt that is correct given current SSTs and recent trends.

In terms of the winter forecast, I think the weak Nina means we may have our chances this winter. I could see one or two months being colder than normal...my guess now is January and March. Although Ninas often have decent Decembers like 2010, 2007, 2005, I wouldn't be surprised if the fall warmth carries over.

BTW, great convo to all involved.

Yeah the SOI continues to go up being indicative of a La Nina still forthcoming.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

 

 

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

I think models are playing catch-up to the falling PDO, and that may include the La Nina as well, with increasing trade winds.

Also the CFS shows widespread warmth in the Southern Ocean, which has been cooling for years. I doubt that is correct given current SSTs and recent trends.

In terms of the winter forecast, I think the weak Nina means we may have our chances this winter. I could see one or two months being colder than normal...my guess now is January and March. Although Ninas often have decent Decembers like 2010, 2007, 2005, I wouldn't be surprised if the fall warmth carries over.

BTW, great convo to all involved.

The strong -IOD is almost certainly playing a role in the Niña strengthening too. There is unanimous model agreement that the AMO goes negative by this winter. Run after run shows the northern Atlantic ssts going ice cold again

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +0.2 (-0.1)

Nino 3: -0.2 (+0.1)

Nino 3.4: -0.6 (+0.1)

Nino 4: -0.2 (-0.1)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, nzucker said:

I think models are playing catch-up to the falling PDO, and that may include the La Nina as well, with increasing trade winds.

Also the CFS shows widespread warmth in the Southern Ocean, which has been cooling for years. I doubt that is correct given current SSTs and recent trends.

In terms of the winter forecast, I think the weak Nina means we may have our chances this winter. I could see one or two months being colder than normal...my guess now is January and March. Although Ninas often have decent Decembers like 2010, 2007, 2005, I wouldn't be surprised if the fall warmth carries over.

BTW, great convo to all involved.

The insanely warm SSTs in the western Atlantic will probably result in December being average at best.  Even JB sort of hints at this in his outlook. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The insanely warm SSTs in the western Atlantic will probably result in December being average at best.  Even JB sort of hints at this in his outlook. 

Those super warm ssts in the west Atlantic are going to positively feedback into the SE ridge and help to sustain its strength and help to keep it in place 

[Stebo]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm ssts in the west Atlantic are going to positively feedback into the SE ridge and help to sustain its strength and help to keep it in place 

If they were to remain that would be the case, as it was the case last December.

[snowman19]

Clear La Niña reflection (-AAM) in the global longwave pattern: 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Clear La Niña reflection (-AAM) in the global longwave pattern: 

More illustration of La Niña -AAM influence in the atmosphere: 

[SnowGoose69]

20 hours ago, Stebo said:

If they were to remain that would be the case, as it was the case last December.

I highly doubt we'd see anything the likes of last December though.  There was some sort of IO/MJO Hawaiian trof pattern I think which led to that being a perfect storm.  I definitely could see something like December 13 or 14 though.  Where its not necessarily a record breaking torch nationwide but relatively mild.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I highly doubt we'd see anything the likes of last December though.  There was some sort of IO/MJO Hawaiian trof pattern I think which led to that being a perfect storm.  I definitely could see something like December 13 or 14 though.  Where its not necessarily a record breaking torch nationwide but relatively mild.

Yeah I agree, last year was way over the top when it came to warmth. We were +11 on the month here in Detroit.

[uncle W]

last December was one of the warmest Novembers on record...It is the most extreme warmth record there is around here...December 2016 can be 10 degrees colder and it still will be considered mild...

[snowman19]

On 9/16/2016 at 1:08 PM, Bob Chill said:

Excellent posts as usual BW and Iso. Something I think is important with the enso regions this year is there is a fairly significant disconnect between numerical data and visual. The "nina" has never been anything more than a thin ribbon of cold sandwiched between vast areas of +SSTAs. Just comparing to recent years that never made Nina status like Sept of 2013, 2005, there are some stark differences. Those years looked much more like an impending Nina than this year

This isn't anything close to a Nina in my opinion. It seems highly unlikely that the little island of cool surround by vast warmth will have any sensible effect on a typical Nina LW pattern in the NH. 

 

 

It's still only September so the jury is still out but I'm pretty skeptical of hitting even a weak nina status as well as ENSO playing a significant factor this winter. I'm personally becoming more interested in the NPac. Seasonals are mostly unanimously calling for a -epo winter on the means. For now, the NE Pac seems primed for positve feedback if we get a +pna/-epo pattern going. 2013 and 2016 look quite similar in the Npac right now. Disclaimer: I'm in no way implying the upcoming winter could be similar to 2013-14 in the east. We got really lucky with the Scand ridge/epo couplet which displaced the PV much further south than typical. A -epo/+nao can be pretty unfriendly to the east coast more often than not. 

 

There is very clear Niña forcing in the pattern now. Look at the AAM, OLR and SOI. There is obvious Nina influence in the atmospheric pattern even though region 3.4 anomalies are just over weak Niña status 

[snowman19]

Big La Niña boost coming: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The Atlantic looks better this year than it did in 2013.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Atlantic looks better this year than it did in 2013.

Big question, does it stay like that? Every model has a -AMO configuration/cold North Atlantic come winter, which is believable since it would follow the trend of the last few years. Also, +QBO, with low solar and modoki La Niña (even by itself), are extremely hostile to -NAO and -AO

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big question, does it stay like that? Every model has a -AMO configuration/cold North Atlantic come winter, which is believable since it would follow the trend of the last few years. Also, +QBO, with low solar and modoki La Niña (even by itself), are extremely hostile to -NAO and -AO

Easy there, killah.

Just evaluating the current state of the SSTs.

We know......everything in the universe if firmly squarely against snow and cold.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Easy there, killah.

Just evaluating the current state of the SSTs.

We know......everything in the universe if firmly squarely against snow and cold.

What part of what I just said isn't true? I'll wait... 

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

What part of what I just said isn't true? I'll wait... 

He didnt say that. Calm yourself.

[thunderbolt]

On Sunday, September 18, 2016 at 7:14 AM, bluewave said:

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Big La Niña boost coming: 

yeah and it's still going to stay weak you can use all the adjectives you want (big, massive ) it is what it is.

 

[bluewave]

Be interesting to see if the official dataset shows warming over the last week like tropical tidbits does.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

 

Nowhere did I say anything more than weak in there. But as usual thunderbolt, superb post. Very insightful and riveting 

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if the official dataset shows warming over the last week like tropical tidbits does.

 

 

 

Product of the tropical instability waves. There is a period of strong easterlies coming up, it's going to drop again once the trades come on

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Product of the tropical instability waves. There is a period of strong easterlies coming up, it's going to drop again once the trades come on

Any drop probably wouldn't be much below what we saw recently as the subsurface cool pool isn't that impressive. Plus the trades haven't been

all that impressive for what you normally see this time of year. They have been much weaker than say September 2010.