La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[thunderbolt]

On Wednesday, September 14, 2016 at 6:03 PM, Rjay said:

That's true but that's a pretty big difference from when you were calling for a strong Nina.  We'll see how this unfolds.  It's always interesting.

well said RJ

[snowman19]

The new runs of the POAMA and JAMSTEC models that specifically predict Modoki events show a weak modoki La Niña continuining through winter: 

[Isotherm]

On 9/14/2016 at 3:22 PM, bluewave said:

It looks like there was too much residual Nino forcing following the the two year event which ended with the super El Nino.

Notice how much more warmth there is now compared to the same time following the the 97-98 event. All the areas

now are much warmer outside of the immediate equatorial regions. So La Nada or weak La Nina is the best that

the Pacific can do against such a warm background state.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't believe there's sufficient evidence currently available to attribute the current ENSO response to a warm background state, especially considering this type of transition has occurred numerous times throughout the past century. The cold ENSO responses subsequent to the strong El Nino's of 1957, 1965, and 1982 were all rather muted w/ either neutral/cold neutral or weak La Nina. Additionally, in light of the research I've done on solar cycle / ENSO interrelationship, a progression into cold/neutral/weak Nina right now isn't too surprising. What will be more interesting is what transpires over the ensuing 2-3 years. My thinking is that we will reverse the +PDO into a predominately negative state sometime in 2017, with potentially three consecutive years of cold ENSO conditions of varying intensities. 

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

I don't believe there's sufficient evidence currently available to attribute the current ENSO response to a warm background state, especially considering this type of transition has occurred numerous times throughout the past century. The cold ENSO responses subsequent to the strong El Nino's of 1957, 1965, and 1982 were all rather muted w/ either neutral/cold neutral or weak La Nina. Additionally, in light of the research I've done on solar cycle / ENSO interrelationship, a progression into cold/neutral/weak Nina right now isn't too surprising. What will be more interesting is what transpires over the ensuing 2-3 years. My thinking is that we will reverse the +PDO into a predominately negative state sometime in 2017, with potentially three consecutive years of cold ENSO conditions of varying intensities. 

Agree 100% on the PDO. We are already well on our way into the beginning of the phase change to negative. Very strong warming over the western north pacific over the last several months and the PDO index has been on a steady decline for several months now as well. In fact it is now officially negative for the first time in years, at -0.66. Negative PDO:

[Isotherm]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the warmest background state in the Pacific on record. It's much stronger than anything we saw during the last +PDO era from 77-98.

And even during that era, La Ninas were weaker relative to colder PDO eras. So there really is no analog to what we are seeing now since

there is unprecedented SST warmth across the Pacific Basin. Check out how anomalous the heat content of the whole Pacific north of -20 N

is compared to anytime in the past. This goes well beyond just narrowly focusing on the PDO.

 

Whole NP north of 20N

 

Focus ENAP north of -20N

 

 

 

 

I'm not certain what you're arguing. To clarify: are you asserting that the current Nino --> Nina muted response is being influenced by the surrounding conditions of warmer waters? The presence of the warmer waters throughout the Pacific is an entirely different argument than the one I'm referring to (that is, an ENSO reaction to neutral or weak Nina isn't surprising). I thought we were principally discussing the muted ENSO response. It seems you believe that the warmer overall conditions are destructively interfering with a more robust Nina response; I would disagree there at this time.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As I posted above...this goes well beyond narrowly just focusing on the PDO number since the total warmth extends well beyond those traditional areas.

While the NPAC summer high lowered the absolute PDO due to local cooling along the California Coast, the anomalous warmth split in half with a record 

blob of warmth south of Alaska and off of Mexico and Central America  where the EPAC ACE is running well bove normal. Also notice

the TIW's along the equator with the cooler waters mixing with the warmer residual tropical and Subtropical SST's

Tropical Instability Waves are normal in La Ninas, most Ninas have them. The crests with this event have been very pronounced. That said, the last 12 months since the super El Niño have been pretty unusual, namely the QBO. We are now going to see a +QBO (westerly) winter instead of the -QBO (easterly) transition everyone had been expecting. I posted an article in this thread a few days ago on the erratic, unexpected transition back to a +QBO for this winter. Article: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe

[Isotherm]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree 100% on the PDO. We are already well on our way into the beginning of the phase change to negative. Very strong warming over the western north pacific over the last several months and the PDO index has been on a steady decline for several months now as well. In fact it is now officially negative for the first time in years, at -0.66. Negative PDO:

 

Yeah, I think it'll try to remain slightly positive through the winter and potentially early part of 2017 though. The transition is typically more gradual in nature. I know some are of the opinion that the -PDO is unlikely to return due to a warmer climatic state; however, based on my research this opinion is on the extreme end of the spectrum. If cold ENSO conditions persist beyond this year (which I think they will), it will be unprecedented if the +PDO signal maintains itself. The unusual QBO behavior couplet w/ ENSO and solar trends will make for an interesting next several years as far as weather and climate are concerned.

[Bob Chill]

Excellent posts as usual BW and Iso. Something I think is important with the enso regions this year is there is a fairly significant disconnect between numerical data and visual. The "nina" has never been anything more than a thin ribbon of cold sandwiched between vast areas of +SSTAs. Just comparing to recent years that never made Nina status like Sept of 2013, 2005, there are some stark differences. Those years looked much more like an impending Nina than this year

This isn't anything close to a Nina in my opinion. It seems highly unlikely that the little island of cool surround by vast warmth will have any sensible effect on a typical Nina LW pattern in the NH. 

 

 

It's still only September so the jury is still out but I'm pretty skeptical of hitting even a weak nina status as well as ENSO playing a significant factor this winter. I'm personally becoming more interested in the NPac. Seasonals are mostly unanimously calling for a -epo winter on the means. For now, the NE Pac seems primed for positve feedback if we get a +pna/-epo pattern going. 2013 and 2016 look quite similar in the Npac right now. Disclaimer: I'm in no way implying the upcoming winter could be similar to 2013-14 in the east. We got really lucky with the Scand ridge/epo couplet which displaced the PV much further south than typical. A -epo/+nao can be pretty unfriendly to the east coast more often than not. 

 

[snowman19]

SOI continues to climb, supports continuing trade wind bursts

[nzucker]

23 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Yeah, I think it'll try to remain slightly positive through the winter and potentially early part of 2017 though. The transition is typically more gradual in nature. I know some are of the opinion that the -PDO is unlikely to return due to a warmer climatic state; however, based on my research this opinion is on the extreme end of the spectrum. If cold ENSO conditions persist beyond this year (which I think they will), it will be unprecedented if the +PDO signal maintains itself. The unusual QBO behavior couplet w/ ENSO and solar trends will make for an interesting next several years as far as weather and climate are concerned.

I'm a little concerned about the +QBO/low solar couplet, which tends not to lead to strong blocking patterns. The favored indices for blocking are +QBO/high solar and -QBO/low solar. That leads me to think this winter may be warmer than average.

 

The declining PDO also leads me to think that we will see less PAC ridging than the last few years. Feb 2015 and the Jan-Mar 2014 period had some incredibly sustained and potent +PNA patterns. I think there will be more troughing in the West, and particularly Northwest, this cold season.

 

In my opinion, the only real factors pointing to a cold, snowy winter are the weak La Nina (think 60-61, 66-67, 95-96) and the potential development of a Newfoundland cold pool in ATL SSTs, which could lead to a favorable tripole pattern and thus a -NAO. Definitely mixed signals, which in totality probably indicate a warmer than normal winter, though not as extreme as last year with more variability as we often see in La Nina.

[Isotherm]

6 hours ago, nzucker said:

I'm a little concerned about the +QBO/low solar couplet, which tends not to lead to strong blocking patterns. The favored indices for blocking are +QBO/high solar and -QBO/low solar. That leads me to think this winter may be warmer than average.

 

The declining PDO also leads me to think that we will see less PAC ridging than the last few years. Feb 2015 and the Jan-Mar 2014 period had some incredibly sustained and potent +PNA patterns. I think there will be more troughing in the West, and particularly Northwest, this cold season.

 

In my opinion, the only real factors pointing to a cold, snowy winter are the weak La Nina (think 60-61, 66-67, 95-96) and the potential development of a Newfoundland cold pool in ATL SSTs, which could lead to a favorable tripole pattern and thus a -NAO. Definitely mixed signals, which in totality probably indicate a warmer than normal winter, though not as extreme as last year with more variability as we often see in La Nina.

 

Yes, I'm getting mixed signals as well right now. The rising QBO coincident w/ declining solar could be problematic, though there are aberrations too - take 2010-11 for example - a strong +QBO/low solar, yet one of the most negative NAO winters in the past few decades. I would agree with you regarding an increased proclivity for retracted Pacific jet patterns and consequently more troughiness in the Rockies/West, which tends to be more prevalent in low AAM/Nina background states. I'm not sure that the official classification of neutral vs. Nina will make much difference insofar as the resultant mid level evolution. If the tropical forcing and AAM/GWO is highly reflective of a Nina state, the pattern should respond accordingly regardless of sea surface temperatures. I'm not a big believer in the near-term Atlantic SST's having a significant effect NAO wise (I think that's more correlation rather than causation), but it's possible. The analog years are about the only intriguing aspect at this juncture, as you noted. Agreed.

[Isotherm]

On 9/16/2016 at 1:08 PM, Bob Chill said:

Excellent posts as usual BW and Iso. Something I think is important with the enso regions this year is there is a fairly significant disconnect between numerical data and visual. The "nina" has never been anything more than a thin ribbon of cold sandwiched between vast areas of +SSTAs. Just comparing to recent years that never made Nina status like Sept of 2013, 2005, there are some stark differences. Those years looked much more like an impending Nina than this year

This isn't anything close to a Nina in my opinion. It seems highly unlikely that the little island of cool surround by vast warmth will have any sensible effect on a typical Nina LW pattern in the NH. 

 

 

It's still only September so the jury is still out but I'm pretty skeptical of hitting even a weak nina status as well as ENSO playing a significant factor this winter. I'm personally becoming more interested in the NPac. Seasonals are mostly unanimously calling for a -epo winter on the means. For now, the NE Pac seems primed for positve feedback if we get a +pna/-epo pattern going. 2013 and 2016 look quite similar in the Npac right now. Disclaimer: I'm in no way implying the upcoming winter could be similar to 2013-14 in the east. We got really lucky with the Scand ridge/epo couplet which displaced the PV much further south than typical. A -epo/+nao can be pretty unfriendly to the east coast more often than not. 

 

 

 

Thanks Bob, and great post as well. I agree that the "Nina" (if we even want to call it that) right now, appears to be on life support. We'll see what the ensuing easterly wind bursts and concomitant +SOI pulses can accomplish insofar as chilling the waters, but I doubt it will be a significant change. I would also concur that the real, driving indicators this winter will probably be other exogenous variables (not ENSO). I've always been a bit skeptical of the NPAC warm pool in terms of ascribing causation to the amplified/meridional patterns of 13-15, though it's definitely possible it promotes positive feedback/maintenance of ridging, barring any stronger, external forcing mechanisms. Either way, it should be a very interesting winter to forecast, probably with plenty of divergence in the forecasts due to the non-signal in the tropical Pacific.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, nzucker said:

I'm a little concerned about the +QBO/low solar couplet, which tends not to lead to strong blocking patterns. The favored indices for blocking are +QBO/high solar and -QBO/low solar. That leads me to think this winter may be warmer than average.

 

The declining PDO also leads me to think that we will see less PAC ridging than the last few years. Feb 2015 and the Jan-Mar 2014 period had some incredibly sustained and potent +PNA patterns. I think there will be more troughing in the West, and particularly Northwest, this cold season.

 

In my opinion, the only real factors pointing to a cold, snowy winter are the weak La Nina (think 60-61, 66-67, 95-96) and the potential development of a Newfoundland cold pool in ATL SSTs, which could lead to a favorable tripole pattern and thus a -NAO. Definitely mixed signals, which in totality probably indicate a warmer than normal winter, though not as extreme as last year with more variability as we often see in La Nina.

Agree with your post, really good post. The PDO drop and cold ENSO definitely does not support sustained +PNA and to less of an extent, the stubborn -EPO that we have been used to in recent winters. Just to add, the climate models are insistent that we go back to the -AMO look in the North Atlantic, which also is unfavorable for -NAO. Come October, we need to see if the cold North Atlantic SSTS start surfacing again (-AMO). +QBO with low solar and Modoki Niña or cold modoki neutral/La Nada is particularly hostile to -NAO, and -AO as history shows us...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks Bob, and great post as well. I agree that the "Nina" (if we even want to call it that) right now, appears to be on life support. We'll see what the ensuing easterly wind bursts and concomitant +SOI pulses can accomplish insofar as chilling the waters, but I doubt it will be a significant change. I would also concur that the real, driving indicators this winter will probably be other exogenous variables (not ENSO). I've always been a bit skeptical of the NPAC warm pool in terms of ascribing causation to the amplified/meridional patterns of 13-15, though it's definitely possible it promotes positive feedback/maintenance of ridging, barring any stronger, external forcing mechanisms. Either way, it should be a very interesting winter to forecast, probably with plenty of divergence in the forecasts due to the non-signal in the tropical Pacific.

Yes Isotherm. Another great post. Given the -AAM tendency lately, transition to cold ENSO and the obvious drop in the PDO, I would definitely not assume that the stubborn -EPO and -WPO will continue even with the "blob" in place. Chicken, egg argument. I honestly think and I am pretty confident that a consistent +PNA is out of the cards this winter too, given the above

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Yes, I'm getting mixed signals as well right now. The rising QBO coincident w/ declining solar could be problematic, though there are aberrations too - take 2010-11 for example - a strong +QBO/low solar, yet one of the most negative NAO winters in the past few decades. I would agree with you regarding an increased proclivity for retracted Pacific jet patterns and consequently more troughiness in the Rockies/West, which tends to be more prevalent in low AAM/Nina background states. I'm not sure that the official classification of neutral vs. Nina will make much difference insofar as the resultant mid level evolution. If the tropical forcing and AAM/GWO is highly reflective of a Nina state, the pattern should respond accordingly regardless of sea surface temperatures. I'm not a big believer in the near-term Atlantic SST's having a significant effect NAO wise (I think that's more correlation rather than causation), but it's possible. The analog years are about the only intriguing aspect at this juncture, as you noted. Agreed.

Just to add, the +QBO with low solar is also hostile to -AO and SSW

[uncle W]

we can get by with a plus AO as long as the winter is like 1992-93...last year saw one great block which help score a touchdown...I'm still going with a combo of analogs with 1966-67 and 1959-60 near the top...66-67 had little blocking in February and March but we still managed 41" of snow...March is when I think the AO will be at its lowest and we could see a big March storm in 2017...

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The blob is not a chicken,egg argument. It's called a positive North Pacific Mode. It's well known to be associated with a ring of warmer

waters further west of the of the +PDO that is associated with a -EPO/+PNA pattern. It can be near record strong levels like 13-14 and

the PDO can only be weakly positive. Notice that the ENSO temps can also be cool. While it's too early to know for sure if this will

be the pattern this winter, it is an important factor which can often be the driver of the winter pattern.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during

 

While ENSO accounts for much of the tropical ocean-atmosphere variability that dominates climate from year-to-year, classic ENSO indices do not account for everything.  In addition to the classic ENSO signal of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, decadal signals of SST variability exist that exhibit strong coupling between the tropics and higher latitudes (Hartmann 2015).  Figure 2 shows the two most important patterns of SST variability for the Pacific Ocean region north of 30S.  The first of these is the classic ENSO pattern, while the second can be called the North Pacific Mode (2)(3).

The North Pacific Mode pattern consists of above-average SSTs in the western Tropical Pacific that extend north along the California coast and across the far northern Pacific Ocean. It is thus a pattern of natural variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system that connects the tropical and middle latitudes.  While ENSO has been in a neutral state for the past few winters, the NPM has been in an extreme positive state since the summer of 2013 (Figure 3). 

The North Pacific Mode SST pattern (Figure 2 bottom) is associated in the observational record with a 500hPa height anomaly pattern that looks very similar to the seasonal anomaly pattern from the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, with a ridge along the Rockies and a deep trough over the middle of North America (compare Figure 4 (left) with Figure 1).  This pattern brings warmth and drought to the West and cold to the East, as we have observed the past two winters.

Of course, it’s possible for the patterns of SST and 500hPa height to be associated—to occur at the same time—without one being the cause of the other. But by using the observed SST under atmospheric models and performing many test simulations of the period from 1979 to the present, it can be shown that the SST anomalies associated with the North Pacific Mode do drive the “downstream” pressure anomalies over North America (Hartmann 2015). Figure 4 (map on right) shows that the simulated 500hPa anomalies produce a pattern that is very much like the observed 

 

 

The problem with this idea of the NPM is that it is displaced west, along with cooling along the immediate west coast. If this continues into the winter you have to shift everything to the west and put the ridge through the Aleutians and western Alaska. Also not to mention the Enso in the NPM graphic doesn't match what we have right now going into winter. 

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The blob is not a chicken,egg argument. It's called a positive North Pacific Mode. It's well known to be associated with a ring of warmer

waters further west of the of the +PDO that is associated with a -EPO/+PNA pattern. It can be near record strong levels like 13-14 and

the PDO can only be weakly positive. Notice that the ENSO temps can also be cool. While it's too early to know for sure if this will

be the pattern this winter, it is an important factor which can often be the driver of the winter pattern.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during

 

While ENSO accounts for much of the tropical ocean-atmosphere variability that dominates climate from year-to-year, classic ENSO indices do not account for everything.  In addition to the classic ENSO signal of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, decadal signals of SST variability exist that exhibit strong coupling between the tropics and higher latitudes (Hartmann 2015).  Figure 2 shows the two most important patterns of SST variability for the Pacific Ocean region north of 30S.  The first of these is the classic ENSO pattern, while the second can be called the North Pacific Mode (2)(3).

The North Pacific Mode pattern consists of above-average SSTs in the western Tropical Pacific that extend north along the California coast and across the far northern Pacific Ocean. It is thus a pattern of natural variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system that connects the tropical and middle latitudes.  While ENSO has been in a neutral state for the past few winters, the NPM has been in an extreme positive state since the summer of 2013 (Figure 3). 

The North Pacific Mode SST pattern (Figure 2 bottom) is associated in the observational record with a 500hPa height anomaly pattern that looks very similar to the seasonal anomaly pattern from the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15, with a ridge along the Rockies and a deep trough over the middle of North America (compare Figure 4 (left) with Figure 1).  This pattern brings warmth and drought to the West and cold to the East, as we have observed the past two winters.

Of course, it’s possible for the patterns of SST and 500hPa height to be associated—to occur at the same time—without one being the cause of the other. But by using the observed SST under atmospheric models and performing many test simulations of the period from 1979 to the present, it can be shown that the SST anomalies associated with the North Pacific Mode do drive the “downstream” pressure anomalies over North America (Hartmann 2015). Figure 4 (map on right) shows that the simulated 500hPa anomalies produce a pattern that is very much like the observed 

 

 

 

 

 

The warm pool south of Alaska is a component of the North Pacific Mode but likely not the principal causative agent of the downstream anomalous/meridional pattern 13-15 in the East. If you read further in that paper you linked, it states the following:

"My colleagues Paulo Ceppi at the University of Washington and Peter Watson at Oxford University have run some initial model experiments indicating that the observed SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean cause the extratropical height anomalies of the winter of 2013-14 in models. We therefore believe that the anomalous weather in North America during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 is related to the warm SST anomalies in the western tropical Pacific (as part of the North Pacific Mode pattern shown in Figure 2), which have persisted since the middle of 2013".

 

They assert that the anomalous tendencies can be connected to the warm SST anomalies in the western tropical Pacific, which makes much more sense meteorologically and physically. The covariation of the S AK warm pool and the meridional downstream pattern isn't sufficient to ascribe causation in my opinion. Water temperatures that cold in the mid/high latitudes won't have the ability to drive patterns, though it can aid in positively feeding back / maintenance. 

 

That paper corroborates what I believe, namely that the chief drivers of the pattern variations emanate from the tropical regions and not the area of the NE PAC, which IMO may very well merely exist contemporaneously as the conducive tropical SST's induce the anomalous geopotential height pattern. 

[EasternLI]

I've been looking through some stuff, and decided to throw something else out there to think about. I haven't seen any prior discussion about this, so if it was brought up already, then my apologies. I see folks posting the SSTA maps, and rightly so, since it is possible to gain some insight from them as to where we are headed during the winter season. I've been looking at the regular SST maps, not the anomalies. One particular area stands out to me. I've circled (roughly) the area that I'm talking about in the map of SST's here:

 

 

The area I've circled, shows up on the SSTA maps as slightly above average, but that is some very warm water. I don't know how many folks look at the JMA Nino stuff. I suspect some here do. The JMA calls this area NINO WEST, and I've posted their illustration of this here:

 

 

So it's pretty easy to see, there is quite a bit of very warm water in the vicinity of this area. JMA has some seasonal composites for the globe, with what warm vs cool in these areas might look like. We'll see what happens, but here is their composite of what a warm event in NINO WEST looks like for DJF:

 

 

 

So, according to the JMA, that would be a cold signal for the east for DJF.

 

To be clear on this, I'm not predicting anything, I just found this interesting and wanted to throw it out there. Seems to lend some support to a colder than avg winter in our area. I'll be interested to see how this plays out moving forward. Here is the link to the impacts that the JMA has laid out based on a warm cycle of the NINO WEST waters for all of the seasons: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/ninowestw.html

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Things can always shift between now and winter. But right now the NPM is in a strongly positive mode like the composite in the linked article.

Notice the current ring of SST warmth south of Alaska and into the tropical Pacific near Hawaii and back to near the dateline and WPAC.

That's why the EPAC ACE is so strong this year relative to other basins. It's currently sitting at 169% of average to date.

 

 

What I am saying though is that I don't think it looks like the composite in the link, the linked composite is much cooler near the Aleutians and warmer near the coast, which would promote a ridge along the west coast. That isn't the case currently, as you have a -PDO which is strengthening as well. Yes there is warmth in the Northern Pacific but it is more centered in the Gulf of Alaska and back northwest from there. That warm area has been slowly retrograding over the last 6 months.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess we'll have to disagree on that point. The main reason that the retrograde to the west occurred dropping the PDO was the strong summer NP ridge

associated with the record down stream ridge and heat in the East. It's common to see PDO fluctuations from month to month in a general +PDO mode

due to the shifting 500 mb patterns which drive the pattern. But with all that warm water out there, it wouldn't be surprising to see bumps back

up again.

The warm water is centered further west, if it remains there the PDO should remain negative going forward into winter.

[Stebo]

Just now, bluewave said:

If that's the case, then warmer water center further west would be indicative of a +NPM. Most long range modeling maintains the current +PDO pattern.

So we'll have to see how things go.

 

Most of those long range models haven't been on the PDO drop that has been dropping since winter and is now negative, some of these same models have the current cooling in the ENSO regions going away as soon as next month. Needless to say I am not too keen on the long term modeling when it can't get the short term correct.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, Stebo said:

What I am saying though is that I don't think it looks like the composite in the link, the linked composite is much cooler near the Aleutians and warmer near the coast, which would promote a ridge along the west coast. That isn't the case currently, as you have a -PDO which is strengthening as well. Yes there is warmth in the Northern Pacific but it is more centered in the Gulf of Alaska and back northwest from there. That warm area has been slowly retrograding over the last 6 months.

This is my view as well. As was also stated, the cool waters right along the west coast are not supportive of +PNA, in fact for some other reasons I already cited, ENSO, -PDO, I believe a +PNA winter is extremely unlikely this year. Just a side note to add, the AAM is projected to become very La Niña-like. This is a significant atmospheric response: 

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am talking about the CCSM4 which correctly predicted the the PDO shift one year in advance during the January 2013 run. 

Month to month variability or fluctuations within a similar regime is pretty common. But it will be interesting to see if it gets 

the next 3 years as correct as it did with 2014, 2015, and 2016 so far.

 

Yeah I was talking more along the lines of the CFS/JAMSTAC, I honestly have never even heard of CCSM4. Would you happen to have any PDO projections from that model?

[Stebo]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CCSM4 when initialized with the January 2013 SST's came up with the PDO shift, two year El Nino, end of hiatus,  and the current 

La Nada bordering on weak La Nina. So it will be interesting to see if the next several years continue the +PDO like it's forecasting.

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11718/full/ncomms11718.html

 

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

Predictions initialized in 2013 show that the simulated Niño3.4 SSTs have tracked the observations with low-amplitude warming in 2014 and larger warming in 2015. Such qualitative success in Niño3.4 simulations for past IPO transitions suggests that an IPO transition probably started in 2014. Indeed, the 3- to 7-year predictions for 2015–2019 that were initialized in 2013 indicate such an IPO transition has occurred, with a resumption of accelerated rates of global warming above those in the uninitialized model simulations. If such predictions were to become operational, the next step (beyond the scope of this study) would be to provide probabilistic climate change information for various time frames in the near-term future.

I should have been more specific, is there a graphical forecast for the CCSM4 like other long term models.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am not really sure when the next run will be, but all the graphical content was included in the paper from the January 2013 run.

Yeah that was my concern, we are using data that is over 3 1/2 years old at this point and expecting it to verify, problem being it is starting to not with the PDO steadily going down since winter.

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah that was my concern, we are using data that is over 3 1/2 years old at this point and expecting it to verify, problem being it is starting to not with the PDO steadily going down since winter.

Yea, that data is way too old. There is a full scale North Pacific SST anomaly shift ongoing toward -PDO right now and you would need a new run of that model with the current SST data in it to be relevant. A run from almost 4 years ago does us no good. You need current data digested into a new model run

[Tim198]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah that was my concern, we are using data that is over 3 1/2 years old at this point and expecting it to verify, problem being it is starting to not with the PDO steadily going down since winter.

Michael Ventrice posted an updated NMME PDO forecast on twitter back in July of this year. One of the models included was the CCSM4. As you can see, it was forecasting the PDO to go negative in October and remain that way through the winter.

 

Here's the forecast from the NMME for the upcoming winter. The CCSM4 is calling for exceptional warmth with no negative anomalies anywhere in the CONUS.

 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Tim198 said:

Michael Ventrice posted an updated NMME PDO forecast on twitter back in July of this year. One of the models included was the CCSM4. As you can see, it was forecasting the PDO to go negative in October and remain that way through the winter.

 

Here's the forecast from the NMME for the upcoming winter. The CCSM4 is calling for exceptional warmth with no negative anomalies anywhere in the CONUS.

 

A bit slow with the transition to a -PDO as we are already there but it does look like a pretty solid consensus to remain in -PDO regime.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Tim198 said:

Michael Ventrice posted an updated NMME PDO forecast on twitter back in July of this year. One of the models included was the CCSM4. As you can see, it was forecasting the PDO to go negative in October and remain that way through the winter.

 

Here's the forecast from the NMME for the upcoming winter. The CCSM4 is calling for exceptional warmth with no negative anomalies anywhere in the CONUS.

 

Missed that. So the CCSM4 did update and yea it's projecting a -PDO...