snowman19 Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 6:28 PM, PB GFI said: Good DAleo video . He sees that Westerly QBO at 45mb combined with Weak NINA analog with cold throughout Canada , GL and the NE. Expand If Joe D'Aleo said that then he's totally contradicting a book he wrote on that very topic. Here is the link to the page in the book he wrote himself discussing the effects of a westerly QBO and La Niña. Take a look: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=qbo+nao+weather+la+nina&source=bl&ots=IYxxDusGRj&sig=uKqWBQ48PPOiF-EWKbxSgmQEhLk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjnsYzn0fHPAhXMFT4KHe2mBXUQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q=qbo nao weather la nina&f=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 7:19 PM, snowman19 said: If Joe D'Aleo said that then he's totally contradicting a book he wrote on that very topic. Here is the link to the page in the book he wrote himself discussing the effects of a westerly QBO and La Niña. Take a look: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=qbo+nao+weather+la+nina&source=bl&ots=IYxxDusGRj&sig=uKqWBQ48PPOiF-EWKbxSgmQEhLk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjnsYzn0fHPAhXMFT4KHe2mBXUQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q=qbo nao weather la nina&f=false Expand He correlates only Weak LA Nina years. His analogs are weak LA Ninas with westerly QBO at 45 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 8:00 PM, PB GFI said: He correlates only Weak LA Nina years. His analogs are weak LA Nina with westerly QBO at 45 MBA. Expand That might be what he just said in the video and I don't doubt you that he did, but if you read that excerpt from his book, he clearly says westerly QBO and La Niña support a -PNA and +NAO. He doesn't break it down into weak, moderate or strong and he says nothing about 45mb in that book. Why this suddenly makes a difference in the video he just put out and it didn't when he wrote the book I have no idea. You'd think if that really was such an important exception he would have said so in that book people have to pay for to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 Link to the video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 8:07 PM, snowman19 said: That might be what he just said in the video and I don't doubt you that he did, but if you read that excerpt from his book, he clearly says westerly QBO and La Niña support a -PNA and +NAO. He doesn't break it down into weak, moderate or strong and he says nothing about 45mb in that book. Why this suddenly makes a difference in the video he just put out and it didn't when he wrote the book I have no idea. You'd think if that really was such an important exception he would have said so in that book people have to pay for Expand A -AO may be the rule and not the exception this winter . Ultimately it may be a significant driver with keeping increased heights up over the pole . The state of the EPO and NAO forecast is still a little down the road for me . We are going to get off to a quick start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/23/2016 at 8:18 PM, PB GFI said: A -AO may be the rule and not the exception this winter . Ultimately it may be a significant driver with keeping increased heights up over the pole . The state of the EPO and NAO forecast is still a little down the road for me . We are going to get off to a quick start. Expand Its relatively rare though for the NAO to be in the opposite phase of the AO, unless both indices are within that +/- 0.5. I think Don S has numbers on that and it was over 75% of the time they are in the same phase and hardly ever when one is over +/- 1 is the other reversed. 1993-94 is certainly the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 the ao/nao are both negative today...the ao is forecast to stay negative but the nao is forecast to go positive again briefly and become quite negative long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 if you use the mei for enso 1959-60, 1966-67, 1978-79, 1995-96 were similar to 2016... average snowfall for the four winters is 49"...average biggest snowfall is 15"...second biggest snowfall is 9.8"...not a bad set of analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 12:11 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, the MEI looks like the other indices with more of a neutral rather than robust La Nina atmospheric response at the present time. The latest 30 day SOI has fallen to neutral levels and the trades haven't been very strong. The EPO has been weakly negative instead of the raging positive that we normally see during La Nina Octobers. This is the first time that we have seen such a narrow stripe of ENSO SST cooling across the Equator surrounded by this much record Pacific basin warmth. Expand This link below is a great site. It has a lot of different indices in one spot. If you look at the 850 zonal wind anomalies, the forecast for the next 7 days looks nothing like a real NINA in the making. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 2:23 PM, mitchnick said: This link below is a great site. It has a lot of different indices in one spot. If you look at the 850 zonal wind anomalies, the forecast for the next 7 days looks nothing like a real NINA in the making. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Expand I note as well that the westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean look to end on that 850 wind map. Since they have been so persistent as that map shows, we might start to look for a cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 2:26 PM, mitchnick said: I note as well that the westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean look to end on that 850 wind map. Since they have been so persistent as that map shows, we might start to look for a cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Expand Those wind anomalies are -IOD related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 AS PER DT , WEAK LA NINA in the AUTUMN that died off by the time early/ mid DEC ( I like this scenario best) woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 I'm giving it a shot and making my own winter forecast next week. Probably Wednesday or Thursday I'll post it in the forum. I wanted to wait till November to see how a few things went and now I'm satisfied pretty much with what I'm seeing to put a winter forecast together next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 The snow cover is bordering on ridiculous now. There has to be a reason that seemingly every year in the past 8 years except maybe one or two has been above or well above average by the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 6:34 PM, snowman19 said: I'm giving it a shot and making my own winter forecast next week. Probably Wednesday or Thursday I'll post it in the forum. I wanted to wait till November to see how a few things went and now I'm satisfied pretty much with what I'm seeing to put a winter forecast together next week Expand Is this it ? Be honest . JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:28 PM, snowman19 said: Those wind anomalies are -IOD related Expand I know, that's why I mentioned it. When they die down, the IOD index "should" start to move out of the cellar. Per today's forecast, that should begin in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Euro Weeklies Looks great from mid NOV through mid DEC -EPO, -AO, -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Just when I was getting a bit more into the Nina train, the SOI values have really plummeted and the long term SOI values are well back within neutral territory. When combined with the somewhat Nino pattern in the Pacific that we're forecast to be see for a somewhat long time, I'm not sure this Nina has much room to grow or truly feedback into the atmosphere moving forward. Not that some weak Nina feedbacks haven't already happened, but I always thought this was going to peak in the fall and weaken as we head into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 11:42 AM, bluewave said: The 500 mb pattern over the next week to 10 days as November begins more resembles the November El Nino Pacific composite below with the deep Bering Sea low. Expand Looks like 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 11:53 AM, bluewave said: More of a reverse form 2011 with the big ridge near the Aleutians and downstream trough over western NOAM. Expand Lol I was kinda being facetious but 2011 did have the infamous bering sea low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 11:42 AM, bluewave said: The 500 mb pattern over the next week to 10 days as November begins more resembles the November El Nino Pacific composite below with the deep Bering Sea low. Expand Beautiful evolution days 12 thru 15 on the EPS and through day 20 and beyond on the weeklies. Classic -AO ( which is the driver this year) and a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Past 30 day change in the North Pacific. Note the Gulf of Alaska: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 1:08 PM, snowman19 said: Past 30 day change in the North Pacific. Note the Gulf of Alaska: Expand Too little too late. Still AN there. The AO is your main driver this winter All that cold air that will be forced into Asia is going to come off that continent run into those AN anomalies . It will force that air up and over the responding ridge and slide HP down its backside toward the lakes. BN is probably the theme here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 1:22 PM, PB GFI said: Too little too late. Still AN there. The AO is your main driver this winter All that cold air that will be forced into Asia is going to come off that continent run into those AN anomalies . It will force that air up and over the responding ridge and slide HP down its backside toward the lakes. BN is probably the theme here. Expand My post was just related to the blob and the Gulf of Alaska. The trend is what's important and the trend is big cooling there. The sstas are way down and cooling is still ongoing in that region, big change from the last few falls. It's not just going to happen overnight but there has clearly been a large scale circulation change in the north pacific reflected in those waters cooling which is why I doubt big -EPO this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 1:44 PM, snowman19 said: My post was just related to the blob and the Gulf of Alaska. The trend is what's important and the trend is big cooling there. The sstas are way down and cooling is still ongoing in that region, big change from the last few falls. It's not just going to happen overnight but there has clearly been a large scale circulation change in the north pacific reflected in those waters cooling which is why I doubt big -EPO this winter Expand Again , look how close to the coast the warmer anomalies were in NOV 2014 . The guidance looks somewhat similar to 14/15 here . Not exact , but close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 1:44 PM, snowman19 said: My post was just related to the blob and the Gulf of Alaska. The trend is what's important and the trend is big cooling there. The sstas are way down and cooling is still ongoing in that region, big change from the last few falls. It's not just going to happen overnight but there has clearly been a large scale circulation change in the north pacific reflected in those waters cooling which is why I doubt big -EPO this winter Expand It may not be as strong as '14 but I would guess we will see bouts of -EPO. Just quickly plotting weak -enso's with +PDO...looks fairly -EPO to me. I do think we have another +PDO winter. Although, after last winters record warmth a little reluctant to start calling for a cold winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 this can't hurt Hannah Attard @HannahAttard 8h8 hours ago 180h fcst of 10hPa: (1) split polar vortex (2) >+4sigma height anom at pole (3) -2sigma zonal mean u anom (4) largest 100hPa vT since 1978pic.twitter.com/wbTwaeOND8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 GFS splits the PV by next week. This is very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Just posting the comparisons to last week. Latest values: Nino 1.2: -0.2 (-1.2) Nino 3: -0.6 (-0.5) Nino 3.4: -0.6 (-) Nino 4: -0.2 (+0.2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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