La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[dmillz25]

How strong will it get? Discuss away

[IsentropicLift]

Typically moderate or strong La Nina's are mild and wet in the East. This is because of the orientation of the Pacific jet, which would favor plenty of inland runners and cutters. However, if you can get some decent blocking, that would make for a favorable pattern for miller B's. If this were to develop, the odds of a Miller A and the odds of snow at the coast would be greatly reduced from the last few years.

 

[MJO812]

Typically moderate or strong La Nina's are mild and wet in the East. This is because of the orientation of the Pacific jet, which would favor plenty of inland runners and cutters. However, if you can get some decent blocking, that would make for a favorable pattern for miller B's. If this were to develop, the odds of a Miller A and the odds of snow at the coast would be greatly reduced from the last few years.

 

Except for 2010-2011 thanks to the strong blocking. I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1. After that, blocking vanished and it was a warm second half. NYC had 3 10+ snowstorms from Dec 25- Feb 1.

[WeatherFeen2000]

I'm thinking we have a cool summer with this setup. Southwest will bake!

[IsentropicLift]

Except for 2010-2011 thanks to the strong blocking. I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1. After that, blocking vanished and it was a warm second half. NYC had 3 10+ snowstorms from Dec 25- Feb 1.

Hence why I referenced a favorable setup for Miller B's during blocking periods. Without the blocking though, the Pacific jet will be overhead, bringing stormy and mild weather.

[Brian5671]

I'm thinking we have a cool summer with this setup. Southwest will bake!

not really-the El Nino lasts well into summer with a slow decline.  Won't see La Nina til August at the earliest

[WeatherFeen2000]

not really-the El Nino lasts well into summer with a slow decline. Won't see La Nina til August at the earliest

okay but I'm calling for a below average summer. I will have a map of this sometime this month. Stay tuned my friends

Sent from MAM

[Thunder7842]

Typically moderate or strong La Nina's are mild and wet in the East. This is because of the orientation of the Pacific jet, which would favor plenty of inland runners and cutters. However, if you can get some decent blocking, that would make for a favorable pattern for miller B's. If this were to develop, the odds of a Miller A and the odds of snow at the coast would be greatly reduced from the last few years.

 

 

 

What about a weak La Nina? 

[uncle W]

the la nina winters and weak negative winters since 1950...ranked by coldest average temperature...Dec/Jan/Feb oni...2010-11 is the only snowy winter with an oni lower than -0.9...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1962-63..............-0.4.......30.0....-2..........28.6..........16.3"..........4.2"

1967-68..............-0.4.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6"

1970-71..............-1.3.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

2010-11..............-1.3.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

1955-56..............-0.9.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

2013-14..............-0.5.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5" 11.5" 8.0" 6.4" 5.0" 4.0"

1964-65..............-0.5.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3" 4.6"

1985-86..............-0.4.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5" 4.5"

2000-01..............-0.7.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"..........12.0" 6.0" 5.7"

1954-55..............-0.6.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9"

1966-67..............-0.4.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5" 9.8" 7.1"

2008-09..............-0.8.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3" 4.5" 4.3"

1975-76..............-1.5.......34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

1971-72..............-0.7.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7" 5.2"

1983-84..............-0.5.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9" 5.1" 4.6"

1973-74..............-1.7.......35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1956-57..............-0.3.......35.6.....0..........27.8..........21.9"..........6.4" 4.9"

1950-51..............-0.8.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0"

1988-89..............-1.6.......35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6.......36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

2007-08..............-1.4.......36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

2012-13..............-0.4.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"..........11.4" 4.7"

2005-06..............-0.7.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"..........26.9" 5.8"

1949-50..............-1.4.......37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1974-75..............-0.5.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8"

1996-97..............-0.5.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5"

1998-99..............-1.4.......38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

2011-12..............-0.7.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.3"

[dbc]

If the models are correct about the strong +PDO continuing, then this suggests

that a strong La Nina will be unlikely for the fall and winter. While the sample

size is small, there hasn't been a strong +PDO La Nina since 1950. So it

will be interesting to see if the PDO stays as strong as the models are showing.

 

+PDO La Ninas since 1950:

 

83-84.... peak -0.8...weak

84-85.... peak -1.1..moderate

95-96.....peak -1.0..weak borderline moderate 

05-06.....peak -0.7..weak

Interesting. Compared to this year the 94-95 winter was also a fairly significant El Nino but it didn't get to the strong category. We could make a better case for 82-83 as far as being similar to this year's El Nino in intensity and trying to understand what type of +PDO La Nina we can expect next winter if it should develop as such. I imagine that both 82-83 and 94-95 were +PDO El Nino's.

[snowman19]

If the models are correct about the strong +PDO continuing, then this suggests

that a strong La Nina will be unlikely for the fall and winter. While the sample

size is small, there hasn't been a strong +PDO La Nina since 1950. So it

will be interesting to see if the PDO stays as strong as the models are showing.

+PDO La Ninas since 1950:

83-84.... peak -0.8...weak

84-85.... peak -1.1..moderate

95-96.....peak -1.0..weak borderline moderate

05-06.....peak -0.7..weak

I agree with JB on this one, I think the North Pacific shifts regimes this year and we go into a -PDO. There are signs of the North Pacific and GOA really cooling off right now compared to what we've seen the last 3 years. We shall see...

[dmillz25]

Except for 2010-2011 thanks to the strong blocking. I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1. After that, blocking vanished and it was a warm second half. NYC had 3 10+ snowstorms from Dec 25- Feb 1.

Wasn't 2010-11 a niño hangover as well? Like the pattern wasn't la niñaish just yet? Curious to know

[Brian5671]

JB's favorite model keeps the +PDO positive into next fall with only weak La Nina development at best.

But who really knows for sure until we get past the spring forecast barrier. it will be interesting to see

how things turn out.

 

ssta.glob.SON2016.1mar2016.gif

Looks like a cold AMO trying to get going.

[Jason WX]

The CFS is getting fixed."The powerpoint shows the corrected forecasts now develop La Nina this summer."

[Yanksfan]

We better hope next years La Nina is a weak one for if its not, we can throw away winter 2016/17.

[snowman19]

The CFS is getting fixed."The powerpoint shows the corrected forecasts now develop La Nina this summer."

They corrected the initialization errors. The experts are saying it is likely to show a strong to very strong La Niña now. The Euro is on board for a strong Niña and some other models are showing a "super" Niña (region 3.4 over -2.0C) by fall

[easternsnowman]

A strong nina will definitely screw the coast and coastal plain much more than interior sections.

[MJO812]

A strong nina will definitely screw the coast and coastal plain much more than interior sections.

I wouldnt say definitely but it isnt good for coastal areas unless you have blocking like in 2010-2011.

[MJO812]

Wasn't 2010-11 a niño hangover as well? Like the pattern wasn't la niñaish just yet? Curious to know

La nina wasnt strong in the first half like it was in the 2nd half of the winter in 2010-2011. I believe 2009-2010 was a weak el nino.

[snowman19]

Going to have a tough time getting a strong La Nina event unless you see a dramatic reversal of the PDO which

none of the current ENSO models are showing. There were only 4 strong La Nina events since 1950 which

had a trimonthly of -1.5 or colder. They all featured -PDO conditions in 73-74, 75-76, 88-89, 99-00.

While the sample size is small of 4 years with a +PDO La Nina, they were all weak or moderate events.

It may be that the +PDO has weaker trades than the -PDO La Nina group.

A +PDO along with a strong Niña is definitely not the norm assuming IF the +PDO holds and we get a strong event. It bears watching this summer to see if the PDO shifts back to negative like JB thinks it will.

[snowman19]

It will be interesting to see how things go. But the long range models all agree on the +PDO continuing at least into

the summer and possibly the fall. Look how robust the +PDO is right now with all that warm water off the West Coast.

Much different from this time in 1998 when that cold pool was displaced much further east.

Also note that mote of cold SST's south of Hawaii in 1998 is nonexistent now.

16.gif

98.gif

Another question would be, is the Niña basin wide, east based, west based or more of a central based "modoki" La Niña?

[Jason WX]

seems most are worrying what the la nina will be like for winter lol.... Lets focus on summer 

[JBG]

seems most are worrying what the la nina will be like for winter lol.... Lets focus on summer 

My somewhat educated guess; we bake this summer and get disappointed next winter.

[IsentropicLift]

It will be interesting to see how things go. But the long range models all agree on the +PDO continuing at least into 

the summer and possibly the fall. Look how robust the +PDO is right now with all that warm water off the West Coast.

Much different from this time in 1998 when that cold pool was displaced much further east.

Also note that mote of cold SST's south of Hawaii in 1998 is nonexistent now.

 

16.gif

 

98.gif

Wouldn't the warm pool off the West coast indicate that the ridging might be along the coast, leading to mostly dry and warm conditions in the West and wet and cool temps in the East with a mean trough over the Lakes?

[donsutherland1]

seems most are worrying what the la nina will be like for winter lol.... Lets focus on summer 

Speaking about summer, a new paper on a possible breakthrough in forecasting heat in the eastern U.S. from as far as 50 days out:

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2687.pdf

[SnowGoose69]

Last I checked the average of all the ENSO models was roughly around -.5 I just can't see there being that much of an error this close in. There are a few stragglers that are between -1 and -1.5 but my feeling is the absolute strongest this event is going to be is maybe in a -1.2 and I don't think that's anywhere close to say an 88-89 or 10-11

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +0.9 (-0.1)

Nino 3: +1.4 (-0.3)

Nino 3.4: +1.5 (-0.2)

Nino 4: +1.2 (-0.2)

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/wksst8110.for

[Jason WX]

CFS is fixed. La nina during cane season 

[Superstorm93]

CFS is fixed. La nina during cane season 

 

Yes, but that means very little directly after one of the strongest recorded Ninos. There is more than likely going to be a lingering lag when switching so dramatically. 

 

Both the ECMWF and CFS now agree on above-average pressures dominating much of the basin. There are some interesting signals like the AEJ being further north/more intense (ECMWF) as well as a region of reduced pressure and above-average precip over the West Atlantic and into the Bahamas. 

 

The prospects of a La Nina look excellent, now the only question remaining is how strong will it actually get? 

 

Most recent run and not a blend of previous forecasts since those are contaminated by that idiotic "cool error"

 

[Jason WX]

Yes, but that means very little directly after one of the strongest recorded Ninos. There is more than likely going to be a lingering lag when switching so dramatically. 

 

Both the ECMWF and CFS now agree on above-average pressures dominating much of the basin. There are some interesting signals like the AEJ being further north/more intense (ECMWF) as well as a region of reduced pressure and above-average precip over the West Atlantic and into the Bahamas. 

 

The prospects of a La Nina look excellent, now the only question remaining is how strong will it actually get? 

 

Most recent run and not a blend of previous forecasts since those are contaminated by that idiotic "cool erroN

Notice the Unusually warm Gulf stream as well? any effects?