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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion


FXWX

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Well, I think there is a decent shot for a nuisance 2-3" on Tuesday....but could easily be nothing.

The big storm talk is informed delusion.

 

There's definitely some different opinions going about regarding exactly the same outcomes given the posts in the various threads... some are looking at like a 2-6" event in April as a big storm, while folks like you are looking at anything under 6" as essentially a waste of time.

 

Same with this weekend...someone's wild is 1" of paste and some 40kt wind gusts, while another person is thinking "wild" should be like 10"/TSSN/50kts. 

 

It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes.  Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday...

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There's definitely some different opinions going about regarding exactly the same outcomes given the posts in the various threads... some are looking at like a 2-6" event in April as a big storm, while folks like you are looking at anything under 6" as essentially a waste of time.

 

Same with this weekend...someone's wild is 1" of paste and some 40kt wind gusts, while another person is thinking "wild" should be like 10"/TSSN/50kts. 

 

It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes.  Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday...

 

 

Yes, I haven't seen a single person expect a "big storm"...meaning 6"+.

 

The Tuesday system has potential perhaps for something nearing warning criteria, but this far out any expectations like that are silly. It could easily trend a hundred miles or more.

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It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes.  Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday...

 

Expecting, definitely no.

 

Ruling out, no as well, especially for BOS and northeast.

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Verbatim is 6+"  N of Pike reasonable based on this run? 

 

Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band.

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Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band.

Yeah...it looks decent for MBY on this run based on the images I saw... but at D5 I could see it moving quite a bit.

 

Nothing really exciting at this point

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Yeah...it looks decent for MBY on this run based on the images I saw... but at D5 I could see it moving quite a bit.

 

Nothing really exciting at this point

 

You'll be in a good spot with this being more in the daytime. But nrn MA should be cold enough for at least the colder surfaces. Defintiely had a fronto band look near you.

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guys regarding Monday night, Tuesday event, when can we "lock" any type of amounts?? Friday or Saturday computer runs?? Thanks

I probably wouldn't lock anything in until at least Saturday. The guidance has been fairly stable though this time around...much less volatile than previous events. Still, it could easily move 50 or 100 miles and that would make a decent difference.

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The "great probs" of 50%+ look exactly where the previous like ten posts said looks good in this one. I-90 to SVT/SNH.

That Euro run almost surgically keeps your BY out of any accumulating snow the entire run. I mean, it's beating a dead horse at this point, but it would be comical if even a place like Stratton finally got a good 7-8" storm from Monday/Tuesday and you still whiffed.

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