NorEastermass128 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I'm going to wager to say that I'll receive less than 5" of aggregate snowfall from both events. That's not going too far out on a limb for a D3 and D5 threat in early April. Less than 1" of aggregate snowfall, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Whenever NNE starts feeling threats slip south/east/west/north... we can always fire up our ol' buddy the GGEM. This model always gives us what we are looking for....though it never happens, but fun to look at, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, I think there is a decent shot for a nuisance 2-3" on Tuesday....but could easily be nothing. The big storm talk is informed delusion. There's definitely some different opinions going about regarding exactly the same outcomes given the posts in the various threads... some are looking at like a 2-6" event in April as a big storm, while folks like you are looking at anything under 6" as essentially a waste of time. Same with this weekend...someone's wild is 1" of paste and some 40kt wind gusts, while another person is thinking "wild" should be like 10"/TSSN/50kts. It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes. Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 There's definitely some different opinions going about regarding exactly the same outcomes given the posts in the various threads... some are looking at like a 2-6" event in April as a big storm, while folks like you are looking at anything under 6" as essentially a waste of time. Same with this weekend...someone's wild is 1" of paste and some 40kt wind gusts, while another person is thinking "wild" should be like 10"/TSSN/50kts. It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes. Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday... Yes, I haven't seen a single person expect a "big storm"...meaning 6"+. The Tuesday system has potential perhaps for something nearing warning criteria, but this far out any expectations like that are silly. It could easily trend a hundred miles or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It seems like folks are talking about similar outcomes just with different subjective opinions on those outcomes. Like I haven't seen anyone expecting 8-12+" on Tuesday... Expecting, definitely no. Ruling out, no as well, especially for BOS and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Another nice solution for the pike region into S VT/S NH on Euro for Monday. (it's been speeding the onset of this thing up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Another nice solution for the pike region into S VT/S NH on Euro for Monday. (it's been speeding the onset of this thing up)Anything south of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Anything south of there? You get about 2" along with some cold rain. 1" makes it to about halfway through CT and to the south coast of MA/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Anything south of there? Looks a bit too warm south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Another nice solution for the pike region into S VT/S NH on Euro for Monday. (it's been speeding the onset of this thing up) Verbatim is 6+" N of Pike reasonable based on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That elongation of the precip shield looks good, esp for nrn MA and SNH/SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Verbatim is 6+" N of Pike reasonable based on this run? Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It's too bad it's a POS low though. Would be a great position if it rapidly developed. Still...even an advisory event in April is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band. Wow. Nice. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band. Yeah...it looks decent for MBY on this run based on the images I saw... but at D5 I could see it moving quite a bit. Nothing really exciting at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah...it looks decent for MBY on this run based on the images I saw... but at D5 I could see it moving quite a bit. Nothing really exciting at this point You'll be in a good spot with this being more in the daytime. But nrn MA should be cold enough for at least the colder surfaces. Defintiely had a fronto band look near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This summer I'm being dragged off to CA so this may be ... This may be my last dance ... My last chance at romance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cPIT_T3mYU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 guys regarding Monday night, Tuesday event, when can we "lock" any type of amounts?? Friday or Saturday computer runs?? Thanks I probably wouldn't lock anything in until at least Saturday. The guidance has been fairly stable though this time around...much less volatile than previous events. Still, it could easily move 50 or 100 miles and that would make a decent difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 GEFS with great probs. C CT north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's the GEFS. Get off twitter. And that graphic is idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Did they use a Coleco Adam for those graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro with great probs. C CT north GEFS map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's the GEFS. Get off twitter. And that graphic is idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 GEFS with great probs. C CT north The "great probs" of 50%+ look exactly where the previous like ten posts said looks good in this one. I-90 to SVT/SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's the GEFS. Get off twitter. And that graphic is idiotic. I can't even figure out if that's cumulative through 132 hours chances of 3"+ or is it a snapshot of a time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I like the trend for tuesday actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I can't even figure out if that's cumulative through 132 hours chances of 3"+ or is it a snapshot of a time frame?Look at that piece of crap.thats a grasping for straws graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 The "great probs" of 50%+ look exactly where the previous like ten posts said looks good in this one. I-90 to SVT/SNH. That Euro run almost surgically keeps your BY out of any accumulating snow the entire run. I mean, it's beating a dead horse at this point, but it would be comical if even a place like Stratton finally got a good 7-8" storm from Monday/Tuesday and you still whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I like the trend for tuesday actuallyWhat trend? The south ticks on cumulative guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 What trend? The south ticks on cumulative guidance? Yes, I went from 6"+ to nothing, And i am more then happy if it stays that way, Over the last couple days it has been ticking south, Therefore its a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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