powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Definitely more realistic bust up here for Mon-Tue, but otherwise it was a trend toward meh for NNE. Lucy has the football teed up but NNE'ers won't even run at it anymore. They know the football won't be there when they swing at it. Next winter Lucy will have to throw the football at us because no one is going to attempt to kick it, lol. In all reality, the 6z GFS looked better for at least some accumulations in NNE from the Mon Night/Tues event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Definitely more realistic bust up here for Mon-Tue, but otherwise it was a trend toward meh for NNE. Not sure what I was typing after I woke up, but I meant "definitely more robust." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro even further south on Sunday morning. Would probably be some white for many in SNE. Monday night into Tuesday probably an advisory event verbatim, esp n of pike. Ensembles still look pretty good Mon night-Tuesday. Wth go to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wth go to sleepmids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 mids The forecast never sleeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Just some quick intuitive hedges considering current model layout.....but I expect both events to essentially trend toward ennui. Sunday has been overrated from the get-go imho....just seems like some wind, and perhaps some showers ending as squalls. Monday night and Tuesday may be advisory is we're lucky, but seems to have "nuisance" written all over it. Cold, windy spring appeal...and dry for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 GFS pretty far south with that Sunday AM shortwave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 mids The forecast never sleeps. Launching a new forecast system FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Just some quick intuitive hedges considering current model layout.....but I expect both events to essentially trend toward ennui. Sunday has been overrated from the get-go imho....just seems like some wind, and perhaps some showers ending as squalls. Monday night and Tuesday may be advisory is we're lucky, but seems to have "nuisance" written all over it. Cold, windy spring appeal...and dry for the most part. This setup strongly favors eastern New England. PV in the eastern CONUS, large PNA ridge with positive NAO and active Northern stream.. Sounds akin to winter 2015 to me. Going to strongly favor far eastern NE for Sunday and especially midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Lol box mentions 12-09-05 in the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sunday was never about more than the wind in terms of headline material, at least from what the modeling has been indicating on the surface. There are fundamentals recognizable there that could lead to more, but that's speculative. Snow in the air gets increasingly more rare by day moving deeper into this next month (of course..) and for that, any snow at all should come along with its own merit as far as that goes. There should be snow in the air, and that much instability combined with huge wind max translating along frontogen physics should produce interesting banded bursting amid all that bluster. It's also fantastic for the degree of weather change (sensible) with huge thickness plummet combined with all that wind. These are all notables and gee - it's not always about whether cocaine is falling from the sky people. As for your drug, I wouldn't give up hope on getting a fix next Tuesday... There's enough presentation among the entire GEFs suite of ensembles for that. One thing that also stands out to me is that the flow is trying to slow down over all. All features in the flow seems to be slowing in there longitude translation speeds. This sort of allows that clipper to a belated departure and may linger it's affect on the area somewhat. The extended still intrigues me (not that anyone asked...). I still see a period there were vesitigial cold will yet to be completely exhausted and the erstwhile height gradient tries to relax. It's probably why we are seeing some of these extended operational versions trying to close something off in the E. I'd watch that - nothing specific but a plausible arena nonetheless. The majority of the GEFs members also show significant amplitude entering the E, D's 8 through 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Really tight thermal gradient on the Monday night event. Euro is basically no snow here in CT - but probably advisory amounts about 5-10 miles north of the border. Would be nice to get this whole thing to shift south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Really tight thermal gradient on the Monday night event. Euro is basically no snow here in CT - but probably advisory amounts about 5-10 miles north of the border. Would be nice to get this whole thing to shift south a bit. "thermal gradient" ?? is it really not cold enough to snow in CT Monday night? ...that seems odd considering the magnitude of the blast sunday night. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 ineedsnow, on 31 Mar 2016 - 09:38 AM, said:Lol box mentions 12-09-05 in the discussion What happened weather wise on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Lol box mentions 12-09-05 in the discussion SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING ... INTERESTING WEATHER POSSIBLE AS VIGOROUS POLAR JET WITH POTENTIAL TROP FOLD IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM! SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN THE FORM OF ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOW PROB OF THUNDER! COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT. WHILE THIS TROP FOLD EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE 12/9/2005 CASE...IT BEARS WATCHING FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS. What happened weather wise on that date? The weather event of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Chrisrotary12, on 31 Mar 2016 - 10:18 AM, said: SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING ... INTERESTING WEATHER POSSIBLE AS VIGOROUS POLAR JET WITH POTENTIAL TROP FOLD IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM! SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN THE FORM OF ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOW PROB OF THUNDER! COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT. WHILE THIS TROP FOLD EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE 12/9/2005 CASE...IT BEARS WATCHING FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS. The weather event of my life. Which was?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 there's nothing wrong with mentioning 12/9/2005 ... it was purely because to most, that particularly event stands out as the best example of what a trop fold event is/can do/for description sake. they are not saying Sunday will result in 12 -15 " in the interior, with 100 mph wind gusts on the Cape. relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Whiteout with up to 100mph winds on the cape wont happen like that but the date brings alot of smiles What happened weather wise on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Whiteout with up to 100mph winds on the cape wont happen like that but the date brings alot of smilesThe most dynamic weather I've experienced in my lifetime over a 3 hour period. Light rain with snow mixing in as I was leaving Norwood late morning/early afternoon. While driving south on 24/495 down towards Wareham the sun appeared along with blue sky, with temps still in the 50's. I arrived home at the sight of a gigantic rainbow and nearly calm winds, but within 30 minutes the temps crashed about 20 degrees and whiteout conditions ensued, with winds over 80-90mph for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It was pretty good here but eastern areas really got nailed The most dynamic weather I've experienced in my lifetime over a 3 hour period. Light rain with snow mixing in as I was leaving Norwood late morning/early afternoon. While driving south on 24/495 down towards Wareham the sun appeared along with blue sky, with temps still in the 50's. I arrived home at the sight of a gigantic rainbow and nearly calm winds, but within 30 minutes the temps crashed about 20 degrees and whiteout conditions ensued, with windows over 80-90mph for a short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Which was?? https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/126185.pdf For my personal experience, I left high school that day at 2 pm. As I walked out of the building it was raining. By the time I got to the bus it was sleeting. 2 mins later as the bus was leaving it flipped to snow. 5 mins later the bus was doing 5 miles an hour in complete white out conditions. 15 mins later I finally got off the bus and had to walk in the middle of the road to get home because you couldn't see 5 feet in front of you. During the walk home, cloud to ground lightning began occurring every few seconds or so. It truly was a thunderstorm spitting snow at 5" per hour or more and this continued for roughly an hour and half. During which we picked up 10" of snow and I could not see my neighbors house across the street. Also, winds on the Cape approached 100 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 The s/w looks even deeper on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Boy that is mean looking at H7-H5 on the GFS predawn Sunday. That's definitely imppressive for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 12/9/05 was a solid 10-11 inch event here, nice storm....codfish approved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Another good one near and north of I-90 on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 A lot of us live South of I-90 though in SNE...so I guess it sucks for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 A lot of us live South of I-90 though in SNE...so I guess it sucks for us? Looks like it may go to a mix on the GFS south of pike, but it was cooler and a bit south of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looks like it may go to a mix on the GFS south of pike, but it was cooler and a bit south of 6z. Oh ok, thanks for the clarification Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 "thermal gradient" ?? is it really not cold enough to snow in CT Monday night? ...that seems odd considering the magnitude of the blast sunday night. Interesting. Not this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This setup strongly favors eastern New England. PV in the eastern CONUS, large PNA ridge with positive NAO and active Northern stream.. Sounds akin to winter 2015 to me. Going to strongly favor far eastern NE for Sunday and especially midweek. I'm going to wager to say that I'll receive less than 5" of aggregate snowfall from both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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