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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion


FXWX

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Sunday is a pretty neat setup...very dynamic. NNE looks to be in the best spot, but it could def be interesting too for places in SNE...esp N of the pike.

 

Then of course we gotta watch 4/5 and maybe the system after that too around 4/8.

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Sunday is a pretty neat setup...very dynamic. NNE looks to be in the best spot, but it could def be interesting too for places in SNE...esp N of the pike.

 

Then of course we gotta watch 4/5 and maybe the system after that too around 4/8.

 

I agree. North of where that vort max tracks could easily wind up with an advisory event. 

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I just need about 16 or so inches to get me to average.  If that some how happens, in 20 years I will look back at the snow totals for 15/16 and think, I hit my average snowfall.  That must have been an o.k. winter.  

...When in reality it will have been a long forgotten smoke and mirrors game.  

 

And NO, I do not expect to get anywhere near 16 inches of snow in April. lol

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Well I am very skeptical of any of this snow/snowstorm stuff...been to many false alarms. We'll get some cold, and a few flakes, but I'm being cautious this time and not getting sucked in.

We'll see what future modeling shows by Friday and Saturday...in all likelihood it will be much less impressive than today. But We'll see.

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i dunno - i think we're good to go through about the 12th of the month (or so...) with lingering + PNA and ample cold not yet succumbed to seasonal solar threshing abut the CAN/U.S. latitudes...  


 


I'm particularly intrigued with that window between D9 and 12 ... i mentioned this couple of days ago but as the SPV relaxes it's compressed gradient look, we'll be passing through a couple three days where the pattern below the 50th parallel relaxes while still containing sufficient thickness/temperature gradients.  with cyclogen no longer conserved/bottled up in the planetary gyre of the erstwhile SPV, that's when things can pinch off and go nuts at smaller synoptic scale(s).  


 


i'd like to see that period of time come into operational modeling - and no, not necessarily biting on the historic Euro look at D9/10 ...even though it is the 2nd consecutive cycle as excitable as that appeal is.  Again, what we'd give for a D11 shot of heroine - ha. 


 


also, the GGEM/Euro/FRANGKENNAVGEM ..all suggest quasi -NORLUN-cyclogen in the Harbor and extending west a trough axis through saturable RH for around 108 hours off this last 00z run.  ..freakish mechanical forcing with 90kts or higher wind max through CT/RI at 500mb.  GFS slightly n with that jet axis limits this overall appeal (it should be noted...).  this idea was hit hard by the Euro operational yesterday morning, so seeing it continue in that guidance and these other lesser reliable types jumping on board that appeal, may be worth watching.  


 


And yes, the clipper system is still also in play if this were all not enough -


 


lastly ..yes, impressive warm signal for thursday and first half of Friday.


 


edit this may be a post for modeling thread -


edit i see you're all over the 108 hour NORLUN like thing...  it's kind of a NORLUN cyclogen hybrid actually.  fascinating -


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Well I am very skeptical of any of this snow/snowstorm stuff...been to many false alarms. We'll get some cold, and a few flakes, but I'm being cautious this time and not getting sucked in.

We'll see what future modeling shows by Friday and Saturday...in all likelihood it will be much less impressive than today. But We'll see.

 

Why would one be cautious in April?

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I have not been here--nor even looked at a model--in about two weeks.  Crazy busy these days.  I finally got around to checking this out this morning and just had to laugh.  Mother Nature mocks us.  Refuses to give us a winter, now refuses a spring.  One can only guess what summer will be.

 

On the plus side, the impact of our horrific long-standing drought will likely be delayed.

 

not the right thread but in brief:  hot.   most summers following warm enso's tend to be ridgy over N/A/

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