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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion


FXWX

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Every single model has a closed sub 520 5h right under SNE. What is your call. 

 

ooh oooh, pick me - 

 

so what.  500 mb closes off at this time of year all the time and nothing happens underneath because:

  1 ...the troposphere's baroclinic gradients are rotted and normalized - no fronts, not storm.

  2 ...in this case, there's plenty of front, but it's displaced too far east by today's interfering wave

 

 ..either way, you get the same result... spinning over top with little surface reflection. 

 

having said that, that's as is - spacing and timing of things can certainly still modulate toward a better set up.  

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ooh oooh, pick me - 

 

so what.  500 mb closes off at this time of year all the time and nothing happens underneath because:

  1 ...the troposphere's baroclinic gradients are rotted and normalized - no fronts, not storm.

  2 ...in this case, there's plenty of front, but it's displaced too far east by today's interfering wave

 

 ..either way, you get the same result... spinning over top with little surface reflection. 

 

having said that, that's as is - spacing and timing of things can certainly still modulate toward a better set up.  

Lol ok

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12z NAM is nice for DXR up into Litchfield county...prob thundersnow chances there...but that is the way this will go...narrow zones unless we get a fundamental shift in spacing...either via slowing down the lagging ULL or weakening (or speeding up) the front running wave.

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GFS actually looks more robust in the mid and upper levels....not that a minor tick is that meaningful...but it's pretty close to being something really nice. Too bad we just can't get this one level deeper to widen the influence and actually get a good conveyor going...it would be a monster if we could

 

Apr7_GFscompare.gif

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Not seeing alot to be "excited" about in this 12z suite other than nuisance cold ra/snsh.  

 

 

Yeah I was hoping to see improvement in the upper levels, and aside from a slight improvement in the GFS, we haven't gotten that.

 

Too bad because that is a very vigorous s/w...but there is just too much interference as it stands now. It is obviously still worth watching, but as of now, I'd expect mostly just a few flurries or snow showers...maybe near the south coast could get a narrow band of something a bit more significant, but still a good chance that it doesn't materialize as currently modeled.

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Pretty much agree that someone in SNE is going to get a nice thumping, favors the southern half of SNE at this time.

GFS had some improvements in the upper levels...maybe that's a sign??  

 

Euro will suck I'm sure for the area..but as some have said, have to keep an eye on this for any last minute shifts in spacing or rapid development due to the improved spacing and potent ULL.

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GFS had some improvements in the upper levels...maybe that's a sign??  

 

Euro will suck I'm sure for the area..but as some have said, have to keep an eye on this for any last minute shifts in spacing or rapid development due to the improved spacing and potent ULL.

i am more of an Ens, intuitive, past experience guy. Can't hate this look

post-322-0-20044800-1460049660_thumb.png

post-322-0-54309700-1460049661_thumb.png

post-322-0-51310200-1460049662_thumb.png

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