CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I don't think you can say that because it's a narrow band. This looks like a Shelton FTW setup as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I don't think you can say that because it's a narrow band. This looks like a Shelton FTW setup as modeled. Stick with the recurring theme for jacks along the southern coastline w/ meh up in the MA hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Stick with the recurring theme for jacks along the southern coastline w/ meh up in the MA hills. It's a very strong s/w so certainly needs to be watched. On the other hand, it seems to want to focus on a narrow area because of mesoscale convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I don't think you can say that because it's a narrow band. This looks like a Shelton FTW setup as modeled. Wouldn't stick well down there. These things always have seem to expand a bit as you get in under the final 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 You all can have these storms, they do nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Looks like crap for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Looks like crap for this area. I'd give it another day. It's a potent s/w modeled in chaotic flow. Could easily be some adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 It's a very strong s/w so certainly needs to be watched. On the other hand, it seems to want to focus on a narrow area because of mesoscale convergence. From what I've seen so far this AM it just doesn't look like it gets it's act together in time. Best baroclinic zone looks initially well offshore as this starts to amplify and the flow doesn't really back. If we can in some way loose that lead vorticity we may be in better shape. It's not far off from something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 From what I've seen so far this AM it just doesn't look like it gets it's act together in time. Best baroclinic zone looks initially well offshore as this starts to amplify and the flow doesn't really back. If we can in some way loose that lead vorticity we may be in better shape. It's not far off from something more substantial. Right, move the ULL north just a bit and it will have room to be more substantial. It is not a difficult thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I'd give it another day. It's a potent s/w modeled in chaotic flow. Could easily be some adjustments. Oh yea, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 We need just a little more spacing. Really impressive ULL but need that one final trend to really give us some inflow from the southeast so we don't end up with a really skinny norlun band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 We need just a little more spacing. Really impressive ULL but need that one final trend to really give us some inflow from the southeast so we don't end up with a really skinny norlun band. Geez the foreign model suite including the less used ones as well as our Navgem sans the Euro are really aggressive with this for SNE. Extrapolating the 54 hr RGEM that is one powerful vort max. This could be rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 We need just a little more spacing. Really impressive ULL but need that one final trend to really give us some inflow from the southeast so we don't end up with a really skinny norlun band.Spacing would help. But I think we've seen some improvements with the lead wave being dampened--a continuation of that trend could still help to a lesser extent.I'm also surprised that the coastal which pops east of the del marva doesn't ever really get going. That's a prime area for rapid cyclogenesis, given all of the existing parameters...We could see the downstream UL ridge get amplified if that low takes precedence over the disturbance that develops over Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I don't think anyone is or should be expecting like 6+..This looks like a solid area of 1-3 inch snows with maybe 2-4 or 5" in the higher areas..for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Upton is going with mostly snow down here A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I don't think anyone is or should be expecting like 6+..This looks like a solid area of 1-3 inch snows with maybe 2-4 or 5" in the higher areas..for all of SNE Expecting, no.....but there is an outside shot....esp. se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Expecting, no.....but there is an outside shot....esp. se MA. IMO..BL is going to be a problem for lower elevations. Not trying to be a doosh ..but I could kind of see this being more elevation driven..to an extent anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 IMO..BL is going to be a problem for lower elevations everyone. Not trying to be a doosh ..but I could kind of see this being more elevation dynamics driven..to an extent anyway FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Srefs favor southern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Starting to look more and more like a NYC to South Coast special to me. We have to watch that ULL though. Those usually have tricks up their sleeves and don't reveal their hand until we're close to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 IMO..BL is going to be a problem for lower elevations. Not trying to be a doosh ..but I could kind of see this being more elevation driven..to an extent anyway look at what happened last night in VT NH 40/7 quickly turned into snow. Watch the dews. Don't underestimate a 520 ULL under us. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 look at what happened last night in VT NH 40/7 quickly turned into snow. Watch the dews. Don't underestimate a 520 ULL under us. Good times Are your dews 7F right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 It does need to be watched though. The flow starts out E-SE, but backs NE-N pretty quickly. I actually agree with Kevin that the higher elevation spots in CT/RI are favored. It could still be a 33F pasting on the S Coast if it falls heavy enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Are your dews 7F right now?revelation to Saturday night? One of your oddest posts ever. 40/21 will wetbulb quickly. Look at some modeled soundings and get back to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 revelation to Saturday night? One of your oddest posts ever. 40/21 will wetbulb quickly. Look at some modeled soundings and get back to me. Where'd you get 40/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Yea most models are pretty wet here, maybe ending as some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Wham, Bam, Thank you Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Congrats on thundersnow DXR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Wham, Bam, Thank you Nam 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Wham, Bam, Thank you Nam The other NAM looks nothing like that ... heh. I will say, tho, that in a situation like this where there is wave spacing/contention issues within the trough evolution, that the final verification may be a solution that isn't reached in the guidance until nearer terms... But it favors eastern areas more so than anywhere else - one would think when employing conventional wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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