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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion

FXWX

By FXWX,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

yeah, i mentioned this/that earlier...   if we think fairly about it (and realistically as far as expectations - untainted by 130" snow tsunamis in 4 weeks... eh hmm), if for some miracle 9-12" fell BDL-ORH-BOS axis, ... yeah, maybe it was a little below normal but anyone complaining is just wrong.

 

sorry - 

 

even if that doesn't happen, we've already recouped enough here and there to have put the ratter question to bed.  think of it this way ... many users on this forum are probably too young to remember the snow dearth rape years of 1985 - 1990 (yes there were some big events in there, duh ) but... this was entirely normal people.  most of you who were born after 1988 have really been living in some kind of 20 year fantasy.  

 

maybe not that bad.. okay.but seriously, i can remember a lot of winters growing up where i was grateful - nowadays you need a frickin' forklift to get people exhumed from a glacier before they think of things as winter

Eh....I think this is upper end ratter for me still.

If we got another 10", no.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

At least we know relatively speaking the models are always way more pessimistic regarding weather under an upper low than it sensibly turns out to be.

 

Relatively speaking.

 

yeah ...this is true actually.   i can recall a lot of cut-off hornet stings in the past like that and the worst that verified was self-destructing diurnal pancake cu.  in fact, given time, the the bottom of the cut-off fills but leaves some dimmed heights in the mid levels, and the pancakers turn into TCU ...they can actually get entertaining when that happens.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

TIP, The last storm, which model(s) got it? GFS? Euro? Ty..Philip

 

that system was the utter antithesis to the modeling behavior spanning months, actually. 

 

Will or Scott or Oceanwx or someone and I were discussing a few days ago how it was really picked up some 9 days in advance as a midland sort of intensity clipper and guess what?  never wavered... not once really in any operational run I saw over the closing 10 days.  in fact, every single GEFs member carried that critter along, and the mean of them was pretty much spot on what took place, right across the parametric board: temp, QPF, locations...  

 

exceptionally well handled by modeling.  

 

i think the consternation in the forecast community was almost entirely bread from stockholm syndrome and just not believing this winter could get it ...well, this 'spring' could get it done - ha. 

 

seriously though, it was remarkably well modeled by multiple camps. 

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted

that system was the utter antithesis to the modeling behavior spanning months, actually. 

 

Will or Scott or Oceanwx or someone and I were discussing a few days ago how it was really picked up some 9 days in advance as a midland sort of intensity clipper and guess what?  never wavered... not once really in any operational run I saw over the closing 10 days.  in fact, every single GEFs member carried that critter along, and the mean of them was pretty much spot on what took place, right across the parametric board: temp, QPF, locations...  

 

exceptionally well handled by modeling.  

 

i think the consternation in the forecast community was almost entirely bread from stockholm syndrome and just not believing this winter could get it ...well, this 'spring' could get it done - ha. 

 

seriously though, it was remarkably well modeled by multiple camps. 

Thank you, we wait for the updates!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

The 80's were basically a decade of Powderfreak type winters strung together. 6 inch storms were blockbusters 

 

lol yeah that's where we are at pretty much... and Mansfield Co-Op is tied with the 1980s for number of winters below 200".  The snowfall numbers are very similar since 2010-2011 to the 1985-90 time frame.

 

Amazing that I'm experiencing the 80s while you guys experience one of the snowiest stretches in history relative to normal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles actually hint that we may still not be done after this weekend...the next weekend after that around D9-10 is looking somewhat "interesting"....obviously the deeper we go into the month, the harder it gets, but there's still cold sufficient for another event if the details work out.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Euro ensembles actually hint that we may still not be done after this weekend...the next weekend after that around D9-10 is looking somewhat "interesting"....obviously the deeper we go into the month, the harder it gets, but there's still cold sufficient for another event if the details work out.

Yep

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