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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion


FXWX

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This will show the tenor of our season... all meso-models are showing a 1-4" snowfall tonight before changing to rain, while the globals want nothing to do with it.

 

I've seen these plenty of times this season and they haven't really verified once.  Its funny the RGEM has been atrocious up here this winter but every time it has a snowy solution for SNE it seems to do just fine :lol:.

 

This stuff has been busting hard all winter so I'd be shocked with more than an inch.

 

 

 

 

And the 4km NAM has a good burst this evening.

 

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Euro not quite as good as the 00z look...but man, that it a potent ULL going just underneath us. Gonna have to watch this one over the next couple cycles. Definitely a prospect for fast improvement on sensible wx on the models if that look can stay.

 

But for now...I'd keep expectations low. Just keep tabs on this.

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Precip shield offshore on the 12z ECMWF....might clip the cape with precip.  But the look is farther offshore.

 

It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run.

 

The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter.

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It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run.

 

The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter.

 

 

My bad, you are correct.  I was looking at the wrong thing.

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It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run.

 

The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter.

 

the take away is probably slipping by anyone's notice, and that's that the spatial-temporal gap between it, the lead party pooper (haha) has widened slightly --  

 

that's an important factor because 'as is' the impulse track is perfect really for a strike, but the recovery time between waves is still problematic.  if that lead were not there, we'd be talking 57 pages in this thread and flipping over for part II... 

 

anyway, if that gap widens by another so much as 9 hours i think that one of those minor adjustments your talking about would mean a bit of difference for eastern/se zones.  

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the take away is probably slipping by anyone's notice, and that's that the spatial-temporal gap between it, the lead party pooper (haha) has widened slightly --  

 

that's an important factor because 'as is' the impulse track is perfect really for a strike, but the recovery time between waves is still problematic.  if that lead were not there, we'd be talking 57 pages in this thread and flipping over for part II... 

 

anyway, if that gap widens by another so much as 9 hours i think the one of those minor adjustments your talking about would mean a bit of difference for eastern/se zones.  

 

 

Agreed.

 

It's literally just about a perfect track in the upper levels for a total nuke to produce a monster snowstorm for most of our area. But as you said, we're spaced slightly too close right now, but the trend has been to give us a little more time to recover in the past 24 hours. We probably won't get it to trend enough for a really big system, but certainly worth keeping an eye on anyway. Even for a moderate impact.

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Euro was so close to being fun if this trends better I probably wont have any words for how this winter was lol

 

yeah, i mentioned this/that earlier...   if we think fairly about it (and realistically as far as expectations - untainted by 130" snow tsunamis in 4 weeks... eh hmm), if for some miracle 9-12" fell BDL-ORH-BOS axis, ... yeah, maybe it was a little below normal but anyone complaining is just wrong.

 

sorry - 

 

even if that doesn't happen, we've already recouped enough here and there to have put the ratter question to bed.  think of it this way ... many users on this forum are probably too young to remember the snow dearth rape years of 1985 - 1990 (yes there were some big events in there, duh ) but... this was entirely normal people.  most of you who were born after 1988 have really been living in some kind of 20 year fantasy.  

 

maybe not that bad.. okay.but seriously, i can remember a lot of winters growing up where i was grateful - nowadays you need a frickin' forklift to get people exhumed from a glacier before they think of things as winter

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yeah, i mentioned this/that earlier...   if we think fairly about it (and realistically as far as expectations - untainted by 130" snow tsunamis in 4 weeks... eh hmm), if for some miracle 9-12" fell BDL-ORH-BOS axis, ... yeah, maybe it was a little below normal but anyone complaining is just wrong.

 

sorry - 

 

even if that doesn't happen, we've already recouped enough here and there to have put the ratter question to bed.  think of it this way ... many users on this forum are probably too young to remember the snow dearth rape years of 1985 - 1990 (yes there were some big events in there, duh ) but... this was entirely normal people.  most of you who were born after 1988 have really been living in some kind of 20 year fantasy.  

 

maybe that bad.. .but seriously, i can remember a lot of winters growing up where i was grateful -

 

 

I've said it countless times on here...but 1988-1989 through 1991-1992 is the only 4 consecutive winter stretch where ORH failed produce a 10"+ snow event. In fact, they never had 3 in a row anywhere else in the record. The worst was 1988-1989...no event over 3" occurred during Met winter...though they did get two 4"+ events in Mar/Apr that year...but the seasonal total was still an embarrassing 28.1"...5th lowest on record.

 

 

At any rate, a bit OT here....but yeah, it can get a plenty worse in SNE than this winter has produced...save maybe for far western MA in the Berkshires, they have been far worse than anyone east of the CT Valley.

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I've said it countless times on here...but 1988-1989 through 1991-1992 is the only 4 consecutive winter stretch where ORH failed produce a 10"+ snow event. In fact, they never had 3 in a row anywhere else in the record. The worst was 1988-1989...no event over 3" occurred during Met winter...though they did get two 4"+ events in Mar/Apr that year...but the seasonal total was still an embarrassing 28.1"...5th lowest on record.

 

 

At any rate, a bit OT here....but yeah, it can get a plenty worse in SNE than this winter has produced...save maybe for far western MA in the Berkshires, they have been far worse than anyone east of the CT Valley.

 

 

sorry i can't resist ...but just want to add; fyi for people, the snow deficit years were a problem in Michigan too.  in fact, ...we never cashed in on much snow at all outside of Lake Effect after the big bomb year of 1978 ... really, it was a no show until i moved out here in the summer of 84 and it seemed to pick up where it left off out here in the new england.  

 

i think '86-87 was okay though if memory serves.. but 1993-1994 was like this apocalypse by comparison by the time the 1990s kicked in for real.   

 

not sure what that 94-95 bs was all about but, heh - 

 

any, back to regularly scheduled programming.  

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