512high Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 sn10_acc.us_ne.png son of a *itch!! I just took our last plow off 8am!! Thought was staying more south! From that model looks like I'm back in for 2-3"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 How much does Boston have, 36"?36.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 This will show the tenor of our season... all meso-models are showing a 1-4" snowfall tonight before changing to rain, while the globals want nothing to do with it. I've seen these plenty of times this season and they haven't really verified once. Its funny the RGEM has been atrocious up here this winter but every time it has a snowy solution for SNE it seems to do just fine . This stuff has been busting hard all winter so I'd be shocked with more than an inch. And the 4km NAM has a good burst this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 You'll get some snow there. Euro EPS have >25% chance of 1" + NW and NE CT Ya you're right. Long way to go with this though anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 36.1" Come on, baby....daddy needs 3.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 GFS still mostly offshore..looks like a nice track at upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Ya you're right. Long way to go with this though anyway. Euro hopefully begins the W trend at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Come on, baby....daddy needs 3.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 What does NYC have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 What does NYC have?32.1" you guys passed us in the last week. I'm at 40 where I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 32.1" you guys passed us in the last week. I'm at 40 where I live Excellent. I went 30-40" there. Sorry...OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Precip shield offshore on the 12z ECMWF....might clip the cape with precip. But the look is farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Euro not quite as good as the 00z look...but man, that it a potent ULL going just underneath us. Gonna have to watch this one over the next couple cycles. Definitely a prospect for fast improvement on sensible wx on the models if that look can stay. But for now...I'd keep expectations low. Just keep tabs on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Precip shield offshore on the 12z ECMWF....might clip the cape with precip. But the look is farther offshore. It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run. The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run. The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter. My bad, you are correct. I was looking at the wrong thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Come on, baby....daddy needs 3.9" You'll get 3.8" as a final screwgie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Hard and fast, tried and true ULL goes underneath Snows beneath our feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Hard and fast, tried and true ULL goes underneath Snows beneath our feet Is this part of the W.W.W.? (wood's Weenie Wisdom)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 You'll get 3.8" as a final screwgie I mean Boston....not a big deal here. I'm 23.5" off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Hard and fast, tried and true ULL goes underneath Rev will start to tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 I mean Boston....not a big deal here. I'm 23.5" off. Oh, wow. Is that off of your average or your outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Oh, wow. Is that off of your average or your outlook? Pretty close to both...average is a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 It actually gets most of SNE into precip...but it's not as heavy as the 00z run. The difference though is meaningless to me at 90 hours. It will either consolidate in the next 2-3 runs or it won't. Shifts within the margin of error won't matter. the take away is probably slipping by anyone's notice, and that's that the spatial-temporal gap between it, the lead party pooper (haha) has widened slightly -- that's an important factor because 'as is' the impulse track is perfect really for a strike, but the recovery time between waves is still problematic. if that lead were not there, we'd be talking 57 pages in this thread and flipping over for part II... anyway, if that gap widens by another so much as 9 hours i think that one of those minor adjustments your talking about would mean a bit of difference for eastern/se zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 the take away is probably slipping by anyone's notice, and that's that the spatial-temporal gap between it, the lead party pooper (haha) has widened slightly -- that's an important factor because 'as is' the impulse track is perfect really for a strike, but the recovery time between waves is still problematic. if that lead were not there, we'd be talking 57 pages in this thread and flipping over for part II... anyway, if that gap widens by another so much as 9 hours i think the one of those minor adjustments your talking about would mean a bit of difference for eastern/se zones. Agreed. It's literally just about a perfect track in the upper levels for a total nuke to produce a monster snowstorm for most of our area. But as you said, we're spaced slightly too close right now, but the trend has been to give us a little more time to recover in the past 24 hours. We probably won't get it to trend enough for a really big system, but certainly worth keeping an eye on anyway. Even for a moderate impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Euro was so close to being fun if this trends better I probably wont have any words for how this winter was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Euro was so close to being fun if this trends better I probably wont have any words for how this winter was lol yeah, i mentioned this/that earlier... if we think fairly about it (and realistically as far as expectations - untainted by 130" snow tsunamis in 4 weeks... eh hmm), if for some miracle 9-12" fell BDL-ORH-BOS axis, ... yeah, maybe it was a little below normal but anyone complaining is just wrong. sorry - even if that doesn't happen, we've already recouped enough here and there to have put the ratter question to bed. think of it this way ... many users on this forum are probably too young to remember the snow dearth rape years of 1985 - 1990 (yes there were some big events in there, duh ) but... this was entirely normal people. most of you who were born after 1988 have really been living in some kind of 20 year fantasy. maybe not that bad.. okay.but seriously, i can remember a lot of winters growing up where i was grateful - nowadays you need a frickin' forklift to get people exhumed from a glacier before they think of things as winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 The 80's were basically a decade of Powderfreak type winters strung together. 6 inch storms were blockbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 yeah, i mentioned this/that earlier... if we think fairly about it (and realistically as far as expectations - untainted by 130" snow tsunamis in 4 weeks... eh hmm), if for some miracle 9-12" fell BDL-ORH-BOS axis, ... yeah, maybe it was a little below normal but anyone complaining is just wrong. sorry - even if that doesn't happen, we've already recouped enough here and there to have put the ratter question to bed. think of it this way ... many users on this forum are probably too young to remember the snow dearth rape years of 1985 - 1990 (yes there were some big events in there, duh ) but... this was entirely normal people. most of you who were born after 1988 have really been living in some kind of 20 year fantasy. maybe that bad.. .but seriously, i can remember a lot of winters growing up where i was grateful - I've said it countless times on here...but 1988-1989 through 1991-1992 is the only 4 consecutive winter stretch where ORH failed produce a 10"+ snow event. In fact, they never had 3 in a row anywhere else in the record. The worst was 1988-1989...no event over 3" occurred during Met winter...though they did get two 4"+ events in Mar/Apr that year...but the seasonal total was still an embarrassing 28.1"...5th lowest on record. At any rate, a bit OT here....but yeah, it can get a plenty worse in SNE than this winter has produced...save maybe for far western MA in the Berkshires, they have been far worse than anyone east of the CT Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 I've said it countless times on here...but 1988-1989 through 1991-1992 is the only 4 consecutive winter stretch where ORH failed produce a 10"+ snow event. In fact, they never had 3 in a row anywhere else in the record. The worst was 1988-1989...no event over 3" occurred during Met winter...though they did get two 4"+ events in Mar/Apr that year...but the seasonal total was still an embarrassing 28.1"...5th lowest on record. At any rate, a bit OT here....but yeah, it can get a plenty worse in SNE than this winter has produced...save maybe for far western MA in the Berkshires, they have been far worse than anyone east of the CT Valley. sorry i can't resist ...but just want to add; fyi for people, the snow deficit years were a problem in Michigan too. in fact, ...we never cashed in on much snow at all outside of Lake Effect after the big bomb year of 1978 ... really, it was a no show until i moved out here in the summer of 84 and it seemed to pick up where it left off out here in the new england. i think '86-87 was okay though if memory serves.. but 1993-1994 was like this apocalypse by comparison by the time the 1990s kicked in for real. not sure what that 94-95 bs was all about but, heh - any, back to regularly scheduled programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 get a load of the giant anus sitting over new england in the euro's extended... yup - welcome to the month of crapril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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