Baroclinic Zone Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 I'm not seeing anything glaring in the models that say it's going to snow this weekend. Looks like all major guidance is offshore with any system right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Snow doesn't mean snowstorm. Minimum there's snow showers/ squalls. It's a deep trough and there's a disturbance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Snow doesn't mean snowstorm. Minimum there's snow showers/ squalls. It's a deep trough and there's a disturbance . Non-accumulating. You would need something other than fleeting SHSN. ANyways, still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 I'm not seeing anything glaring in the models that say it's going to snow this weekend. Looks like all major guidance is offshore with any system right now. Euro gets close but the Euro ensembles look pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Euro gets close but the Euro ensembles look pretty meh. Yeah, clips CC it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 With the caveat of changing wavelengths, this impending drop in the NAO, and AO is precisely what we need to make a euro-type amped/recurve solution feasible. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gi The PNA wants to cooperate as well: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif That's a potent combination. Historically we see some really amped solutions with a longwave trough setup along the east coast and the above parameters. I think we all should be watching this with more interest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 ?? Your stated odds are ridiculous, but it has some decent ingredients for April, mainly - lurking cold. I think Will said a few weeks back that even in April, a good setup only gives you 50/50 odds or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Probably too far east, but one to watch. whiff, cutter, whiff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 It'll snow, it snows when it wants to snow, and lately it wants to snow. So we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 The 12z GFS develops a lot more separation between the waves. Boy that's close to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Really potent vortmax coming S of the area on the 12z GFS thanks to better spacing as JC-CT alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 The 12z GFS develops a lot more separation between the waves. Boy that's close to something Big change from 6z. We'll see what it means. We are kind of in a situation with little wiggle room. Because the baroclinic zone is so far offshore..we need the low to come close for precipitation. However, having the baroclinic zone offshore ensures deep cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 70/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Big change from 6z. We'll see what it means. We are kind of in a situation with little wiggle room. Because the baroclinic zone is so far offshore..we need the low to come close for precipitation. However, having the baroclinic zone offshore ensures deep cold too. Yeah it's gonna be tough to get a real system from this...much higher chance we see ULL snow showers or something. It is certainly still far enough out though that maybe we can see some bigger changes occur to give us that extra spacing we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 70/30 Big changes and it still didn't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Big changes and it still didn't get it done. 70/30 of snow of any kind this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 heh, ...i don't see any conceptual difference between the last several cycles and this one, wrt to the GFS oper. and this week's ending trough evolution; and in fact, this below is pretty common among all guidance at this point. there may be significant detail difference, but those don't appear to off-set the general appeal of nested, destructive wave interference going on in that bad boy. the trough acting without resulting better cyclogenesis in this case connotes unsettled windy, cold ... instability snow and grapple flits from time to time should about constitute the sensible impact spanning that era of time. can something more come of it? sure, ...but the above depiction(s) need to substantially modulate. i highly doubt it will at this point, due to persistence sometimes being one's best friend in this business. in this case, the persistence is the wave interference its self. frankly, it's amazing there was an event yesterday at all - but that was an 'in-betweener' type system not associated with a L/W event, like the week end is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 The Euro looks like brush for far eastern areas on Sunday morning, but hard to tell based on the 24 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 The Euro looks like brush for far eastern areas on Sunday morning, but hard to tell based on the 24 hour panels. The shortwave is impressive, but the lack of spacing is really make it hard for any conveyors to get going...so there's not a lot of precip and the sfc low has a hard time trying to gain latitude initially. We'll need a fundamental shift in the wave spacing to change that. Otherwise this is probably flurries/occasional snow showers under the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 The shortwave is impressive, but the lack of spacing is really make it hard for any conveyors to get going...so there's not a lot of precip and the sfc low has a hard time trying to gain latitude initially. We'll need a fundamental shift in the wave spacing to change that. Otherwise this is probably flurries/occasional snow showers under the ULL. Agreed. Time is still on our side for some larger scale shifts to occur, so still worth keeping an eye on over the next day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 Agreed. Time is still on our side for some larger scale shifts to occur, so still worth keeping an eye on over the next day or 2. Sort of. At 12z the first shortwave is initializing over Montana, so it's not like it will be disappearing. The second which dives in and phases with it is about to enter the west Canadian coast. The third shortwave, which is the one in question on the GFS, is still up in the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 GFS is closer to something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 GFS is closer to something better. Great, let's see how many more hours I can lose this week on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 GFS is closer to something better. Inv trough love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 18z Navgem is about 6 hr slower than GFS at hr 108, but has a stronger system 100 miles further west. The qpf shield though only makes it to Nantucket. Another 75-100 mi west and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 still possible..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Inv trough love Fickle pickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Fickle pickle520 heights don't go away without leaving an impression in April. Windsexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 ULL goes south of LI. We snow . Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 When it gets to this, you know its firmly over.EPS and GEFS say Ray you gave up on the last two please keep an open mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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