512high Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 As we get closer to both events...which model will be the one to watch? Euro? gfs? does one do better then the other? Or are we still a ways out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Absolute blue bomb roof collapser for powderfreak on the D7-8 Euro. It even gets interior SNE (esp Berks) with decent snow after starting as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Absolute blue bomb roof collapser for powderfreak on the D7-8 Euro. It even gets interior SNE (esp Berks) with decent snow after starting as rain. my synoptic impression of that is about 20" of blue at Orange Ma - but it's picking nits at this range, duh. i've been hitting that extended period for some time. not intending to take credit, just sayin' the solution may be full of schist by i can understand where it is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Absolute blue bomb roof collapser for powderfreak on the D7-8 Euro. It even gets interior SNE (esp Berks) with decent snow after starting as rain. It even gets snow down here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Absolute blue bomb roof collapser for powderfreak on the D7-8 Euro. It even gets interior SNE (esp Berks) with decent snow after starting as rain. Watch us end this with 20-30" of snow lol. There are some cumulative 3 foot amounts in central to southern VT over the next 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 my synoptic impression of that is about 20" of blue at Orange Ma - but it's picking nits at this range, duh. i've been hitting that extended period for some time. not intending to take credit, just sayin' the solution may be full of schist by i can understand where it is coming from. It brought back some better thermal packing in the mid-levels...supporting a more robust cyclogenesis versus some of those "rotted out" looks we saw yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Watch us end this with 20-30" of snow lol. There are some cumulative 3 foot amounts in central to southern VT over the next 9 days. Yeah there's over 2" of QPF in parts of the Greens as snow just in that one storm on the Euro. Anyways, typical clown range, but it was fun to see it on that run. There's obviously some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yeah there's over 2" of QPF in parts of the Greens as snow just in that one storm on the Euro. Anyways, typical clown range, but it was fun to see it on that run. There's obviously some potential. there's definitely something in that range trying to come into focus; what that is/form/impact is up in the air (pun intended...)... interestingly, the freebie 12 GEFs ensemble members drill out a trough closer to D7/8 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 i was just taking a closer look at the NAM FRH numbers (FOUS grid) for BOS and man, ... those WINDEX numbers are off the charts Sunday morning! LIs go from +7 to +29 in 12 hours, with T1-T3 differential of -17 C BLAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Thankfully, the GEM is utterly useless. If I could lock in today's Euro and GEM it might make the season go from F- to F. Both models are absolute bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yeah there's over 2" of QPF in parts of the Greens as snow just in that one storm on the Euro. Anyways, typical clown range, but it was fun to see it on that run. There's obviously some potential. I'll call it now... Weymouth with more snow than the higher summits of NNE on that one too I look at the track and I'm like there she is, the Boston Harbor bomb...then my mind is immediately like "oh wait that's not possible anymore" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 things break right and it snows more outta Sunday morning's gig than Monday's - sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Canada on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Canada on crack Blocking =) Navgem also has a retrogading storm but it's rain. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Check out the Euro solution for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Can we slide that 100 miles east please ? I will pray to the great RevKev to make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Can we slide that 100 miles east please ? I will pray to the great RevKev to make it happen Don't worry...we got this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Awesome. And congrats to you and Megan Will !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ray disturbingly fits into that pic quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ray disturbingly fits into that pic quite well. the three horsemen of the apocalypse - anyway, that April 8-9-10 event has been on the table spanning almost a week's worth of la-la range modeling, and to a great extent, their respective camps of ensemble depictions have carried the trough amplitude idea, too. In fact, they still do as of last night. the problem is that this is April,... and without a fresh installment of cold to steepen up gradients/thickness in the low to mid levels, and timed just right, that sort of cutting mlv center and dramatic appeal over the top of a sun rotted lower troposphere can, and often does, verify more like a maelstrom merely drifting over top. you end up with limited surface reflection, grapple in the elevations and a period or two of dying low-top convective showers for everyone else. i've seen this sort of thing modeled in April and May many times, and what ended up happening was that 2 day period of drab weather that was more like just convectively unstable whenever the sun won for a couple hours. if you look at most if not all these robust solutions, within 18 to 24 hours of those "deep" results, the low is filled to the point of being light winds and light rain...the trough also filling. That unusual hurried weakening is direct evidence of the models not seeing a lot of baroclinic instability to work with amid an atmospheric medium immediately leading up to that trough's greatest mlv amplitude. that can certainly change ... just what i'm seeing "as is" - or perhaps, as of, the 00z run/mean. obviously, there have been big snow events right through May - duh. but it's just that folks should keep this in mind that the rotted affair is perhaps even equal in probability for the time being. whatever happens, that really should be it.. the flow in all GEFs members appears to go nebular, losing a lot of coherency for much of any pattern construct and that's very typical of spring, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Can we slide that 100 miles east please ? I will pray to the great RevKev to make it happen Oh it will don't worry . That will either go out to sea by the Benchmark, or up the St Lawrence River Valley. I'd bet anything on one of those two outcomes. Going over Boston is not happening this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 man, the GGEM really pulls the plug on everything after Tuesday... it's as though it just got the memo that its spring and opts to unilaterally neutralize all gradients and go warm in the extended... also, makes that big trough amplitude a non-consequential progressive nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Oh it will don't worry . That will either go out to sea by the Benchmark, or up the St Lawrence River Valley. I'd bet anything on one of those two outcomes. Going over Boston is not happening this season. Euro starting the trend to a St Lawrence track on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Euro starting the trend to a St Lawrence track on the 12z run. heh, if snow is one's concern, i wouldn't get any sense of loss with that thing if i were you - there may not have been anything to lose to begin with as i was discussing earlier, in April, ...yeah, we've had our storms of lore but they are rarer for the obvious reason. also, troughs in this time range at this time of year, in the models, will often turn out over-wrought and rotted in the low levels. people don't seem to acknowledge the sun but it will normalize the medium and destroy the foundation of kinematics for deep layer cyclogenesis more often than people are NOT willing to get excited by a deep solution post April 1. it's just as likely that whole thing ends up being a big whirl reserved for mainly aloft, that's more misty and cruel to outdoor enthusiasts at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 heh, if snow is one's concern, i wouldn't get any sense of loss with that thing if i were you - there may not have been anything to lose to begin with as i was discussing earlier, in April, ...yeah, we've had our storms of lore but they are rarer for the obvious reason. also, troughs in this time range at this time of year, in the models, will often turn out over-wrought and rotted in the low levels. people don't seem to acknowledge the sun but it will normalize the medium and destroy the foundation of kinematics for deep layer cyclogenesis more often than people are NOT willing to get excited by a deep solution post April 1. it's just as likely that whole thing ends up being a big whirl reserved for mainly aloft, that's more misty and cruel to outdoor enthusiasts at the surface. Oh certainly not... in NNE we do not expect it to snow anymore. We just like shoveling fantasy snow for as long as possible before the atmosphere finds the next way not to snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Euro starting the trend to a St Lawrence track on the 12z run.trend? Lol its wobbled every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 trend? Lol its wobbled every run More than a wobble but yea, don't see a trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 More than a wobble but yea, don't see a trend yet.lol well it went from off Boston to the St Lawrence in one run ,perfectly described PFs winter tracks.But what he didn't tell you is EPS destroyed him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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