Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion


FXWX

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 792
  • Created
  • Last Reply

If its your first time all probability maps look like that.

 

Well to be fair, not all Euro probability maps have "GEFS" in the title. Most don't, in fact.

 

But yeah I hear you, it's a freakin' probability map, not deterministic. Which is why I'm surprised Kevin posted it in the first place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I went from 6"+ to nothing, And i am more then happy if it stays that way, Over the last couple days it has been ticking south, Therefore its a trend

 

Rooting against snow?  Must mean your back is in good enough shape for the links.  (I'm not rooting against snow, but bowing to the inevitable - too late the cold on Sunday, too far south the qpf Tues.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rooting against snow? Must mean your back is in good enough shape for the links. (I'm not rooting against snow, but bowing to the inevitable - too late the cold on Sunday, too far south the qpf Tues.)

Back is not that great, In fact I was bed ridden for a few days because of it over the last few weeks, Golf has taken a back seat over the last few years but I am going to wells on Sunday to pick up my boat at my brothers to get back on the lake fishing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look at all the discussion it generated. Hmm.. Interesting

Contrary to what you may believe any discussion does not necessarily mean it is a good discussion.

 

Most of the discussion is how awful that graphic looks, and that you referenced the wrong model.  But if that means something good in your mind, then congrats on invoking meaningless discussion about flaws and awfulness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe 6"...I wouldn't call it widespread 6"+...but probably a stripe in there of 5-7". Precip is close to a half inch. You might get like a 8-9" type thing in the fronto ratio band.

 

that snow on Monday reminds me of that same type that happened back on the Equinox, where it's high ratio despite not being exceptionally cold in the lowest levels.  you end up with a kind of wet fluff - counter intuitive but is so...  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that snow on Monday reminds me of that same type that happened back on the Equinox, where it's high ratio despite not being exceptionally cold in the lowest levels.  you end up with a kind of wet fluff - counter intuitive but is so...  

 

 

Yeah it definitely has that appearance of being a nice fronto band with pretty cold temps aloft...so regardless of whether it is 30F at the sfc or 24F, it ends up being a high ratio snow. Assuming it actually verifies as modeled of course, which is a risky assumption at 4-5 days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

weird changes on the extended Euro...  its like it just sort of gives up on the active appeal and ops for  weakening all gradients and ...spring I suppose.   that one after Tuesday may fall victim to this normalization effort by the Euro. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it definitely has that appearance of being a nice fronto band with pretty cold temps aloft...so regardless of whether it is 30F at the sfc or 24F, it ends up being a high ratio snow. Assuming it actually verifies as modeled of course, which is a risky assumption at 4-5 days out.

 

True  ... it's interesting how persistent this little critter has been across the various guidance types, tho.  I bet this thing ends up being the butterfly that topples the N sea over the Norwegian dike system - ha!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True  ... it's interesting how persistent this little critter has been across the various guidance types, tho.  I bet this thing ends up being the butterfly that topples the N sea over the Norwegian dike system - ha!

 

I was noting that earlier...the guidance hasn't changed all that much from run to run considering the timeframe. It's been the opposite of a lot of systems this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was noting that earlier...the guidance hasn't changed all that much from run to run considering the timeframe. It's been the opposite of a lot of systems this year.

Every single GEFs member has this thing at this point ... at least the 12 I've seen. 

 

One of the members even has a phased juggernaut destroyer close enough to blizz eastern NE - not trying to root that on by saying this buuuuut, we should note that the governing dynamics that parlay into this clipper are actually still in full latitude trough construction some 2000 naut mile W of the west coast of N/A out over the open Pacific.  About 36 hours from now, we'll see how well the assimilators are handling matters - it's a tall order to assume that's perfect right now.  that trough has to in part shear and then eject downstream ..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huh? Was just wondering. And if the GFS is right core is to your north

I thought you were implying that he still believes the winds will be sick Sunday, sorry. In regards to winds, if the GFS is right I'll easily be in the sweet spot for winds, but it does get northeast of me afterwards and you'll get some pretty strong gusts.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...