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April Pattern Disco -2016


Damage In Tolland

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I don't know many reporting sites north of the St Lawrence River Valley, but man that area continues to get snow every single time it rains in New England.

 

They've had one heck of a season up there from the cutters all taking an almost identical path...and they are still getting good synoptic snow.

 

 

 

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I unpinned the model thread. The snow chances are pretty much gone so it doesn't really make sense to have a model and pattern thread pinned. We can probably just go back to putting the model and pattern talk together again.

If anyone disagrees make your voice be heard.

And nice C cups euro. I hate cut off season. :axe:

post-3-0-16723100-1460292622_thumb.png

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I don't know many reporting sites north of the St Lawrence River Valley, but man that area continues to get snow every single time it rains in New England.

They've had one heck of a season up there from the cutters all taking an almost identical path...and they are still getting good synoptic snow.

rgem_snow_acc_neng_17.png

Yeah, I know several people who have gone up there to ride snowmobiles and they have said it looks like 10' on the ground. Of course after this winter anything over a foot would look like ten to me lol.
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I have no idea how some thought Napril was coming. This is not the pattern for it. You want a SE ridge and massive trough in Rockies.

we get the Rockies trough...unfortunately that d4 s/w cuts off and rots over us for a week. Hopefully it trends south a bit and becomes more of a SNE/NYC problem so that NNE can squeeze in a little sun here and there. ;)
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I have no idea how some thought Napril was coming. This is not the pattern for it. You want a SE ridge and massive trough in Rockies.

 

We have the latter ... at least, in the time frame in question.  

 

And really, that "...how some thought..." sentiment isn't altogether fair to be blunt.  This idea of a cut-off tainting what ridge response there in the east down wind of aforesaid trough in the west, was not only previously only hinted ...but it fits in between mass field arguments (as they always do in spring and summer) and therefore couldn't really have been very well defined in any deterministic sense.

 

If remove that cut-off ...that's your warm balmy April and it's presence comes out of nowhere - I disagree there's credit taking there.  

 

If folks can honestly say that cut-off was perceived as a certainty a over a week ago, than the 'obvious no' sentiment of 'how some thought' carries more weight for me.  Otherwise it's lucky -

 

Having said that, April sucks for a reason - and more than anything, this is just climo being built accordingly.  

 

also, just fyi for everyone ... the the four climo sites in SNE, March ended +4 to +6 (give or take decimals) above normal, yet the first 10 days of April is for all intents and purposes mirroring opposite. talk about a surgical strike - ha!  

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we get the Rockies trough...unfortunately that d4 s/w cuts off and rots over us for a week. Hopefully it trends south a bit and becomes more of a SNE/NYC problem so that NNE can squeeze in a little sun here and there. ;)

Heights are still high all over Canada. Until we get rid of the ridge axis so far west, it's cutoff sand BDFs.

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Enjoy today. BLUEBIRD

 

meh...just my personal opinion of today but it sucks and is horrible.

 

blistering, searing, high post equinox sun and it's not even 40 ?!

 

again, just my opinion, but its a rotted waste of a sunny day.. 

 

also, in a worldly sense of it, these kind of cool results have been happening, with the exception of just one or two other locations around the planet, only in New England.  it seems (sarcastm) like our geography solely carries the burden of off-setting global warming.  and IF that is going to be the case ... it's got to do it in April - don't you know it... 

 

man... what a f* 'en prison term spring is in this part of the world.  

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meh...just my personal opinion of today but it sucks and is horrible.

blistering, searing, high post equinox sun and it's not even 40 ?!

again, just my opinion, but its a rotted waste of a sunny day..

also, in a worldly sense of it, these kind of cool results have been happening, with the exception of just one or two other locations around the planet, only in New England. it seems (sarcastm) like our geography solely carries the burden of off-set to global warming. and IF that is going to be the case ... it's got to do it in April - don't you know it...

man... what a f* 'en prison term spring is in this part of the world.

been outside since 8am have no idea what you mean. Clear crisp, sun feels great. Yard work is so much more easily done with clean Canadian air. Invigorating yet not bound by multiple layers.
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of course...now, the mass fields are changing toward a cold stormy one... (and that just means cooler profiles - not talking about cocaine here)

 

wouldn't you know - 

 

have to see tho.  the operational GFS appears to be at symbolic war against its own ensemble means: the op. version is clearly "relaxing" the gradient (it's one reason why the cut-off has emerged in all the runs for that matter...) -vs- the derivative of the means, which have this solid +PNA/-NAO thing gong on. 

 

I've read over the years the warm ENSO events (to which one is quickly ending, noted -) tend to back end winters with more +PNA tendencies.  It's almost like the physical memory the atmosphere has has yet to incorporate new experience here - heh. 

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12z GFS backed off the depth of that cut-off feature a bit ... perhaps 6 DM through the core and extend radially out through all of the EC region.  

 

not sure it's enough ...but if it backs off more (and VERIFIED that way being most important) than the mid/U/A feature probably falls below the mechanic strength threshold to engender lower tropospheric cyclonic response.  

 

long words for, it's just to weak to have much low pressure at the surface.  Then of course its a variable thing with sun heat on-shore flow east of 95 with pancake or even some instability lighter showers ...but still offset by sun intervals.  Hugely different implication than having a 5 isobar gradient on-shore domestic violence... 

 

OceanWx brought up a good point last week .. these cut-offs will often be modeled more miserable than they verify.  ...Or not, sometimes they over produce -sure.  But it's pretty weak in this morning's GFS depiction and getting close to dropping below said threshold.  

 

Oh...I'm sure that the typical depth-happy GGEM and Euro will show up a snow storm now...

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