Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2016 Author Share Posted April 6, 2016 Looks like Tip was on the desk today at WPC COLLATERAL DAMAGE'--- I'M NOT EMOTIONALLY ATTACHED TO KEEPING A 'JANUARY-LOOKING'FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THELOWER 48 --- BUT WHEN THESE HUDSON BAY TROUGHS PERSIST --- THEYARE HARD TO MOVE OUT.. THIS LEADS TO THE OTHER THING THAT HAS NO EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT --- BUT I FIND INTERESTING IN THE 'APRIL 2016' PATTERN --- THESPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC. THIS CONFIGURATION OFF THEWEST COAST --- IS NEVER GOOD FOR 'PROGRESSIVENESS' AND ALTHOUGHTHE 'UNDERCUTTING' MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS BEEN ADVERTISED --- ANDTHE LOW-LEVEL WIND REVERSAL (ONSHORE FLOW WILL COME) ---THEMOISTURE IS STREAMING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SONORA .. ..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... CONTINUED COOL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI --- AND WINTER-LIKECONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 Looks like Tip was on the desk today at WPC COLLATERAL DAMAGE'--- I'M NOT EMOTIONALLY ATTACHED TO KEEPING A 'JANUARY-LOOKING' FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE LOWER 48 --- BUT WHEN THESE HUDSON BAY TROUGHS PERSIST --- THEY ARE HARD TO MOVE OUT.. THIS LEADS TO THE OTHER THING THAT HAS NO EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT --- BUT I FIND INTERESTING IN THE 'APRIL 2016' PATTERN --- THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC. THIS CONFIGURATION OFF THE WEST COAST --- IS NEVER GOOD FOR 'PROGRESSIVENESS' AND ALTHOUGH THE 'UNDERCUTTING' MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS BEEN ADVERTISED --- AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND REVERSAL (ONSHORE FLOW WILL COME) ---THE MOISTURE IS STREAMING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SONORA .. ..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... CONTINUED COOL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI --- AND WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. .... they probably happen by this forum as guests more often than we are aware...sneaking stealthily to gather intel on how they are being perceived/judged and so forth, for one, ...but in the process of doing so, they get exposed to, and perhaps a realization of, just how much this weather crap DOES influence culture on socio-psycho-babble levels... sorry - it's true people. been joking ...at times more serious about the "affliction" that goes on for years, and the fire-storm of retaliation that it sometimes sets off is just people's own guilt. if it did expose them, they don't like what it means, so of course, it's the person's fault that pointed it out... ( god I love people) having said all that, he's right - though the gradient can be seen as trying to relax, these teleconnector still offer up western higher heights. The PNA is positive primarily at both agencies, and now the NAO is finally dug out in the means - like we didn't know THAT was going to happen in phuckum April. We'll see... but part if not most of me thinks all it will mean is the worst for everyone, with seasonally dwindling snow chances losing out to schit that won't get warm spring like either. though the pattern keeps trying to relax ... ai yai yai - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 It will take some time for the environment to recover after next week. With another cold dump D10 or so, I think,Napril is in very serious trouble. Days and days of highs in 40s and 50s after next week imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 going by the GEFs ensemble members... about 1/2 of the 12z runs scheduling green-up to begin in earnest on the 15th... thickness static above 550 dm with ridging bulging east of 100 W. if we can fend off bds ...that's are more sincere above freezing nights with mild/warm sunny days. top 10er contention weather actually... just 10 days and counting. then again, the euro parks a climo low right over us then, too so who knows - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Signs of Napril in the extended past mid month..and esp past the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 No Signs of Napril in the extended past mid month..and esp past the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 No Signs of Napril in the extended past mid month..and esp past the 20th ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 One day snapshot? I see 500 height anomalies and ridge axis to our west. That is not Napril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Don't think anyone screaming torch..but looks like after the 20th or so it's normal or above consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 One day snapshot? I see 500 height anomalies and ridge axis to our west. That is not Napril. That is a 5 day average he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 That is a 5 day average he posted Congrats on overnight lows driving meh + departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Congrats on overnight lows driving meh + departures. Speaking only verbatim, that's not what the 0z GEFS showed at the surface for the 5 day period he posted. It showed the maximum positive departures being at 18z almost every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Speaking only verbatim, that's not what the 0z GEFS showed at the surface for the 5 day period he posted. It showed the maximum positive departures being at 18z almost every day. That says 5 day avg 2m temp anomalies. Looks like avg anomalies to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Regardless, that ridge axis is not in a good spot. Maybe a few DSD days, but high pressure looks to ruin fun from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 That says 5 day avg 2m temp anomalies. Looks like avg anomalies to me. My post was based on looking at the individual frames for myself. It's not overly positive, I agree. But the average anomalies were not resulting solely from overnight mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Regardless, that ridge axis is not in a good spot. Maybe a few DSD days, but high pressure looks to ruin fun from the north.it's days of 40s with some 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 My post was based on looking at the individual frames for myself. It's not overly positive, I agree. But the average anomalies were not resulting solely from overnight mins. It probably will drive it with maritime flow. That's my fear with that setup. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 My own interpretation of matters is that there is a fairly coherent attempt at relaxation of the flow everywhere, and this was first begun in the GEFs ensembles a few days ago, ...and continues to carry on. It's not showing up in the tele's from CDC with a neutral PNA and rapidly rising NAO after a week... Now, the oper. Euro is backing way off the closed pig look it had and is trending toward building more eastern heights. paraphrase, bona fide more convincing seasonal turn out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 It's a nice look after the 20th with mild to warm stretch of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Signals really emerging now for Napril later this month. Finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I'm not impressed with boundaries to our south. Maybe some DSD days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 I'm not impressed with boundaries to our south. Maybe some DSD days. I like Gibbs ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Thinking we get past tue/wed of next week and this junk weather is behind us. Both the eps/GFS hinting at a warm period between 16th-20th as a storm digs out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I like Gibbs ideas One day you'll understand. Just like your warm April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 the problem with that debate is that one side of it doesn't apparently understand, tho it's hard to know why, that using the "general circulation appeal" is a bad method for designing impressions for New England's sensible weather at this particular time of year. the reason for that (..as anyone over 15 years of age already should know..) is that about 3/7th of our radial symmetry is eternally devoted to the NW Atlantic's oceanic heat sink, and any mere touch from those directions ... SSW around to NNE ... makes the warm side of that debate ... IMPOSSIBLE BLE ble ble ble ble Having said that, the 'general appeal' of the circulation is definitely more spring like - we'll give that side of the discussion at least that much merit. Whether the sensible impact of that qualifies for the subjective definition of 'napril' or not, is both up to the individual and non scientific (which makes that discussion ice pick in eye-socket tediously pointless to begin with) but, going to be dependent upon correctly knowing/modeling details way out in time, which is also ... IMPOSSIBLE BLE ble ble ble ble Particularly at this time of year, when (... as the models are also currently distributing rather friendly-like relative to calendar timing) the coherent flow structure begins to relax and go nebular. So the take away is, the "potential" for milder/warmer times has certainly deterministically improved, but that is far, far from certain and could easily fail to materialize due to New England (particularly S-E regions) uniquely situated bend-over posture to the cosmic dildo gods of cruelty to spring/summer enthusiasts. But getting the potential to improve is the first step. I will say, around D8/9 or so, even the Euro operational, which drills heights low in SE Canada/NE/upper OV at least excuse imaginable as a systemic bias during its extended(s), is now ballooning midland ridge growth E of 100 W over the CONUS. Again, this actually began in the GEFs members (and may have in the EPs too, but I am unaware of that camp's immediate history; either way, no one on this forum would EVER comment on a warm signal in April for some reason - gee) some days ago, and the operational GFS also has it, but also battles climo BD butt bangs too - so at least it knows about the "potentials" around here - heh. All this and the tele's combined argue for the first real seasonal bona fide pull out of excessively colder thickness/heights, and their respect nebular appeals that tend toward at least some ridging is probably the general circulation appeal that one side of the debate's head is exploding over. We'll see if it "weathers" the storm of details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 Pretty torched 00z Euro run days 8-10. Hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 NE winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 It's almost that time of the year where NNE can shine with the warmth while SNE seabreezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.