Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Looks like Thursday we get into HWW type winds. Looks wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Looks like Thursday we get into HWW type winds. Looks wild Yeah, NAM would have some wild 35 knot gusts in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Yeah, NAM would have some wild 35 knot gusts in SNE. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS UP 50 MPH THU AFTN PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. GFS EVEN STRONGER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA /50KT- 58MPH/ BEING MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Did you see your beloved GFS? The model that loves to mix out the boundary layer? Yeah, I did. We know how SW flow off the cold water loves to mix out deeply this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Next week (5th-ish) is looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 and then maybe 9-10th especially inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 The model that loves to mix out the boundary layer? Yeah, I did. We know how SW flow off the cold water loves to mix out deeply this time of year.Thankfully BOX on it and we in and up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Thankfully BOX on it and we in and up Meh. Maybe BOX can hoist the wind advisory tonight and get some lead time. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 They talking HWW not whimpy advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 When is the last time winds have gusted over 50kts in a gradient setup during April? Probably never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 They talking HWW not whimpy advisory Because this wimpy advisory is working out so well right now. I know they'll get every twig down today, but so far I've only seen PK WNDs hit 40 knots at ORH and BDL, one hour each. That's not really screaming widespread advisory to me. As for Thursday, I'd really like to see a stronger signal than just the GFS touting HWW criteria. NAEFS hardly cracking a 2 SD LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Heh, I know that guy... Let the public hype begin. I can see it now...Heavy, heavy doses of "What ever happen to global warming?" comments heard at office water coolers and barbershops across the nation. http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/subfreezing-highs-to-return-to-northeastern-us-as-polar-vortex-shifts-southward/ar-BBr1X9Q?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Yeah....polar vortex in April? I dunno....doesn't really have the same feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Yeah....polar vortex in April? I dunno....doesn't really have the same feel. I would've said "lobe of the tropospheric PV" but that wouldn't sit well with anyone in that dept. (that I'm not in...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I would've said "lobe of the tropospheric PV" but that wouldn't sit well with anyone in that dept. (that I'm not in...) Just hype up a snowstorm next week. That will get the headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Just hype up a snowstorm next week. That will get the headlines. Don't even get me started. Sigh. I'll just sit in my energy corner and watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?) Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth... Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?) Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth... Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15. I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 But in all seriousness, I'm not on here much anymore (though apparently my tweets get talked about ocassionally?) Twitter's 140 characters certainly make the tweets lose their value sometimes- tough to talk LR wx with that much room. Anyways, does look like once that -EPO recovers, looks like the bigger key to end the month is western ridging and h5 shenanigans up near AK and the Aleutians. Despite ECMWF weeklies pointing warm, seeing ridging in western Canada doesn't exactly make me excited for extreme warmth... Guess overall I like normal or above post 4/15. hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 hey Ed, why did you tweet compare Euro 850 to GFS surface temps at different times to make a point about differences in cold. Just wondering as you usually make great points in tweets Hey Steve! I have been told to not post "premium" ECMWF data on social media so I obliged w/ 24h maps from TropicalTidbits (which doesn't have free EPS 2mT anoms). Whole different topic for a different day... They were different, but the point I was making was that the EPS was less amped and quicker to pivot out the cool down versus GEFS yesterday. 140 characters sucks sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I pretty much agree. The weeklies had some pretty orange colors at 500mb, but not overwhelmingly so. Couple that will cold in SE Quebec....I just don't see a lot of prolonged warmth week 3 and 4. Yeah, certainly warmer than wks 1-2, but not the warmth I was honestly expecting for April. Do think warmth builds in the Plains wks 3-4. Question is does it slingshot east closer to 5/1 or get knocked back with lower heights in Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Everything, every month has verified warmer than progged As son as the snow melts in Se Canada over next few weeks..we'll see the cold disappear quickly on modeling. April to me looks +3 or so in BOS..and that's after a cold start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 GFS was almost close with a coastal storm for the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Noyes has 2 chilly days Sun and MOn and then right back into 50's middle of next week. This cold shot looked like 5+ days.. Now it's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Para GFS is similiar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Putting aside the biased and skewed views based on the utter futility of the season, you have to like the look going forward for some late-season mischief. Whether it's a coating or sonething more significant is anyone's guess but I think accumulating snowfall is a decent possibility during the April 3 - 10 period. Some places may even coat it up with the influx of Arctic air late Saturday night and early Sunday, especially in the higher terrainNoreaster please or its tits on a bull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Noyes has 2 chilly days Sun and MOn and then right back into 50's middle of next week. This cold shot looked like 5+ days.. Now it's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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