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April Pattern Disco -2016


Damage In Tolland

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28° here for the low.  Temps really dropped after 3AM looking at the graph of my online station.  What time did BOX drop the freeze warnings?  Temps were fairly steady prior to that but then dropped.  Looks like a fair amount of 20s and below 32° readings (other stations were above 32°).

-14 in Canton/ Avon - lol.  If there was a way to slant stick your thermometer this guy found it. 

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-14 in Canton/ Avon - lol.  If there was a way to slant stick your thermometer this guy found it. 

 

Yeah, that an the 7° reading down by the shore.  I'm sure those are just errors.  I used the mesonet's because they usually don't have anomaly's like that but still.  Maybe the Avon/Canton reading was some of the cold air filtering down from Bakersville?

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Euro has 40s and rain all day Sunday. Looks delightful. 

 

he got that from me, too - which he transplanted a segment of one of my posts, into his, to create that impression. 

 

unfortunately ... what he neglected to transplant along with it was my qualifying remarks;  re 'getting it to verify' and 'if it verifies' etc... 

 

at the time, i was commenting on the snap-shot look of the model run two or three days ago, which at that time was a considerably different appeal.  

 

saturday may still be salvageable.  still has that azure sky, calm wind, under +3 C at 850mb look, prior to wall of high and mid level ceilings coming in late in the day or at night - again ...we're only talking in deference to the 00z oper. appeal.  if that were the only tool in the game i wouldn't have a problem going 70 in the typical warm locations for a time that afternoon.

 

but as is usually the case at this time of year... most air masses are DP challenged, and systems migrating through our latitude tote along and create typical deep nadir wet bulb lower tropospheres ...so yeah, should that steady overrunning rain unfold, 70 afternoon saturday, 43 catastrophe the next day.  

 

not that anyone asked, but i'm still eyeing the 2nd week of May as the next (or perhaps arguably 'first') warm up of the season. teleconnections have the dying PNA correlation going neutral as it is, and the NAO is flipping signs...  this cool or cool-like pattern we've been stuck in since the late season snow a couple weeks ago ...it's really all been a result of these larger scaled mass field indicators being pretty significantly sloped in favor of cold and stormy.  but losing that?   not sure where we sustain cool if that loss occurs, and the westerlies probably remind a lot of folks that this has been an enabling pattern we've been in.  ...may be time to get seasonally real.  speculative, but there are signals in the extended from what i am seeing.  no - i don't use the eps.

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700 RH is slightly more than the Euro, on the 00z oper. GFS, with 50/50 that day, which could argue for some clouds in that particular solution.  also, curiously it paints a small amount of QPF... 

 

i'm actually wondering if it might be weakly convectively unstable there.  the cool mid level heights eventually will have to answer to the sun ..interesting. 

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The cold wet mongers just keep wishing for it. They got their wish this past Tuesday and again early next week. Then it's over

Why do you interpret them correctly making a forecast as "wishing for it"?

We know you forecast with your emotions but a lot of those guys don't...so needless to say, their forecasts aren't always what they want to happen. They just want to be right, not satisfy some inner urge for rain and 45F.

It's like when everyone is calling for a torching rainstorm in January while some try to wish for a better outcome, then have an emotional breakdown when it happens with phrases like,"Well you all get what you wished for, a torching rainstorm".... implying that Will, Ryan and Scooter enjoy a nice January rain because they called for it so they must want it.

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Why do you interpret them correctly making a forecast as "wishing for it"?

We know you forecast with your emotions but a lot of those guys don't...so needless to say, their forecasts aren't always what they want to happen. They just want to be right, not satisfy some inner urge for rain and 45F.

It's like when everyone is calling for a torching rainstorm in January while some try to wish for a better out come, then have an emotional breakdown when it happens with phrases like,"Well you all get what you wished for, a torching rainstorm".... implying that Will, Ryan and Scooter enjoy a nice January rain because they called for it so they must want it.

 

Yeah... I'm not exactly thrilled about my current forecast of 49F and rain on Sunday but it is what it is. 

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Why do you interpret them correctly making a forecast as "wishing for it"?

We know you forecast with your emotions but a lot of those guys don't...so needless to say, their forecasts aren't always what they want to happen. They just want to be right, not satisfy some inner urge for rain and 45F.

It's like when everyone is calling for a torching rainstorm in January while some try to wish for a better outcome, then have an emotional breakdown when it happens with phrases like,"Well you all get what you wished for, a torching rainstorm".... implying that Will, Ryan and Scooter enjoy a nice January rain because they called for it so they must want it.

Wasnt referring to Ryan. He likes summer. But there's a certain crowd on here that would much rather have a cold rain than warm sunny wx with temps in the 80's in May. They have a sick fetish for it
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Wasnt referring to Ryan. He likes summer. But there's a certain crowd on here that would much rather have a cold rain than warm sunny wx with temps in the 80's in May. They have a sick fetish for it

 

Do you think there are any sick people who prefer 45F and rain in October to 68F and sunny?

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