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April Pattern Disco -2016

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Out in clown range, but models suggest SOS type pattern to start May. Climo cutoff to our SW with stalled boundary nearby and deep tropical moisture plume aloft. Looks like a climo look for these. I guess we shall see going forward...but a rather ominous look on EC ensemble mean.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

that cmc prog reminds me (for some reason) about an NPR discussion i was listening to the other day.  

 

they were talking about perception and how it isn't 'enough' on the same page with GW, and that is why it is difficult to spur public opinion and attitudes in favor of taking seriously the catastrophe that awaits.

 

i find that interesting, because ...spanning the last three years, the U.S. has been in a relative heat sink compared to the rest of the Globe. we've had a few warmer than normal months and/or spans of time, but less than everywhere else, and in fact, have had cooling periods off-setting.  what also makes that ironic is that the U.S.'s population, is per capita, the biggest polluters of GH gassing of any industrialized society on the planet. ...yet, the atmosphere seems to go out of its way to "cloud" (pun intended) those same abusers with a bubble of perception ...a.k.a., model runs like the cmc or reality and/or somewheres in between, that assuages them from not sensing the urgency and truth. 

 

fascinating.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

much more agreeable 00z operational Euro run for spring enthusiasts, compared to this prison sentence of bad runs offering persistent obnoxious spring retarding cold we've suffered for over a week - it's been like Stockholm Syndrome thinking that it can't happen. my god. 

 

and, the GEFs-side teleconnectors actually agree with that over all appeal ... i like it when disparate sources are on the same page. 

 

not talking 84/60 type stuff ...not even close. but, it's a far cry from 30s to 50s with rain and cloud and N wind dimming any sunshine's warmth if the sun ever shines type of appeal, when the D4.5 + time frames show three straight days of COL and or +PP in the area, under attending subsidence, dry air and 850 mb T's hovering around +1 to +3 SW to -1 C NE across the region. at this time of year and the power of ole sol notwithstanding, that's super-adiabatic flip-overs of BL clear to 70 or even 72 in a protected parking lot and back yard.  

 

that's like a possible 3 top 10 days back to back if things break right... then, the extended shows quite the heat pulse engineered out over the high plains and escaping the D SW region.. but details in that flow structure are both absurd to mention at this sort of time lead, but as is, would need work bringing deeper warmth east.  

 

let's begin with what we have that is most probable, and see if we can get those days mentioned above to take the place of these negative anomalies, first. 

 

otherwise ... candidate for a top 10 schit day well underway

 

Edit: actually that may be more east wind into eastern SNE, but it is still a step in the right direction -

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