April Pattern Disco -2016

[Damage In Tolland]

Tossed

[CoastalWx]

lol...that's snow here midday.

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RPM agrees too. Euro was close as well. 

 

Edit: euro was maybe a couple of inches for you.

[tamarack]

RPM agrees too. Euro was close as well. 

 

Edit: euro was maybe a couple of inches for you.

 

Still many hours away, but right now it looks like a miss to the south.  Based on the last five months, that will probably verify, since "cutter" is not in play this time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sorry, but that makes no sense. A warm December is still technically cold. A cold July is still warm.

Dec 24-25 2015 were warm around here by any definition. Lol

[ORH_wxman]

Parts of NNE are looking probably at least 50/50 or even better to get accumulating snow on Mon night/Tuesday...

[Lava Rock]

Parts of NNE are looking probably at least 50/50 or even better to get accumulating snow on Mon night/Tuesday...

Guess my grass seed from overseeding is fooked?

[CoastalWx]

Guess my grass seed from overseeding is fooked?

Grass seed won't die from that. It's hardy. Gfs shifted south. Euro has lighter qpf but maybe a couple of inches in spots. NAM has near warning snows from Powderfreak to you. Lol.

[tamarack]

Grass seed won't die from that. It's hardy. Gfs shifted south. Euro has lighter qpf but maybe a couple of inches in spots. NAM has near warning snows from Powderfreak to you. Lol.

06z GFS gives my area nothing but boring slightly BN wx thru day 14. At least no 4-day cutoff misery, though mid-late May seems the time for those horror shows here.

[CoastalWx]

06z GFS gives my area nothing but boring slightly BN wx thru day 14. At least no 4-day cutoff misery, though mid-late May seems the time for those horror shows here.

Yeah it definitely shifted south. It's a fairly active pattern. Who knows, your chances probably aren't done.

[Damage In Tolland]

[Typhoon Tip]

When a professional met states "get ready for a warm and sunny stretch" I take that to mean warm relative to normal...aka above normal. I don't take it as "it's going to be warm, but not necessarily above."

Let's say he said it in reference to July. If we ended up with frequent cP airmasses resulting in mucho sun and avg temps of -2F across the region would you say he was correct? 70F and sun in July is technically warm to my skin, but I would not call the day warm. Is an 85F degree day in Yuma in July a warm day too?

 

- honestly i didn't get the back dialogue on that; just that in situ statement.  unless i had, i prolly should have just stayed out of it.

 

however, as is, "relative to normal" is perfectly valid and actually the course of lesser regret when describing any departure from what is empirically derived as a norm. it's thus "mathematically" correct and removes any possibility of subjectivity. 

 

any scientific discipline embraces that same practice, as they should, be it medicine, social sciences, ...astronomy ...etc. 

 

if the 'norm' for april 30th is say 60... saying warm relative to normal can be a little miss-leading, 'IF' the user does not give a value of degree in order to qualify their statement.  "several" degree warm, relative to normal, is also a little conniving (and would probably be the word choice of the JB's out there) because if it is only three warmer than normal, they win, but also if twenty - they REALLY GET TO WIN.  ...convenient to their self-promotion...

 

annnywho, but again, i didn't hear why the conversation arrived to that point - just my useless two cents worth here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

06z GFS gives my area nothing but boring slightly BN wx thru day 14. At least no 4-day cutoff misery, though mid-late May seems the time for those horror shows here.

 

not sure exactly where Sharon Maine is from just this moment typing ...however, the 06z operational GFS was historic for elevations from the Berkshire Mountains to the southern Greens/Whites, and probably up through much of interior Maine. 

 

one just has to seek and most importantly ...trust, the 240 + hour range   

 

that run brought ...some 18 straight hour of moderate to heavy snow to said regions, while 850 mb temperature layout ...and this is key, STARTS at +1 to -1, but drops to -3 to -6 C during.  That specific "dropping" behavior means dynamic cooling, mostly likely due to drilling heights from strong cyclogenesis approach and passage.  heavy qpf totals, with supply of cold n ...albeit marginal for the lowest 1300 meters, is still sufficient despite May 5 or so.

 

if it's going to snow now through ...October 1, you have to at least model that type of dynamic behavior or forget it. barring a comet impact and fallout nuclear winter resulting, ya have to have dynamic assist going forward. thus, that 06z is a very good start, and...frankly, given to the fact that the NAO appears to bowl through our spring intersection, causing a huge pile-up, then blithely moving on, leaving chaos and abnormality in it's wake without any newly arriving mass-field indicators other than the sun its self to off-set.. it's not exactly an impossible look. 

 

it is, however, also a very bad start that it is one model run, of an off-hour ensemble member, ... for some 260 hours out.  

[dendrite]

The NAM was close to a little isothermal blue snow thump Tuesday up here. H8 and 2m is a little warm, but it could be a mess at the higher elevations with snow, IP, and/or ZR.

[CoastalWx]

The NAM was close to a little isothermal blue snow thump Tuesday up here. H8 and 2m is a little warm, but it could be a mess at the higher elevations with snow, IP, and/or ZR.

Gfs appears that way too, although I did not look at soundings.

[powderfreak]

The NAM was close to a little isothermal blue snow thump Tuesday up here. H8 and 2m is a little warm, but it could be a mess at the higher elevations with snow, IP, and/or ZR.

J.Spin to MWN bullseye on the NAM.

[CoastalWx]

A lot of places will be in the 30s in SNE Tuesday aftn while srn NJ is in the 80s. 

[OceanStWx]

The NAM was close to a little isothermal blue snow thump Tuesday up here. H8 and 2m is a little warm, but it could be a mess at the higher elevations with snow, IP, and/or ZR.

 

NAM bufkit 4.2" at GYX.

 

I can see the headlines now, "meteorologist goes on a murder spree with 9 iron."

[CoastalWx]

NAM bufkit 4.2" at GYX.

I can see the headlines now, "meteorologist goes on a murder spree with 9 iron."

Glad we don't golf there.

[OceanStWx]

Glad we don't golf there.

 

In and up, in and up.

 

EPS probabilities for 1" snow are actually pretty higher, though shifted further south than the NAM. Of course, I'm not sure Brian wants to jackpot in late April. 

[Typhoon Tip]

A lot of places will be in the 30s in SNE Tuesday aftn while srn NJ is in the 80s. 

 

this is purely an emotional post so i'm sure it'll insight a riot ...

 

but, this is both true, and... mind boggling why/how any mind would wish off the arrival of spring/summer - it is as though that 30s in SNE is somehow a petty moral victory over it, too.  it's like, if it's not going to snow, at least it's in the 30s?  

 

not necessarily you per se, but it is as though there's a kind of transient meme for that sort of thinking ... more than seems that text is hidden in the vibe of the posts.   i suppose if someone is utterly incapable of registering desire for other weather types - 

 

buuuut, i'm probably just reading in too deeply.  

 

yeah, that would be pretty fantastic to see ... it's possible the extremes are too amped, but... i've seen 90s drop to 40 in a single afternoon around here on more than one occasion during the "spring", so that experience alone tells me it's well probable enough.  

 

imagine living in N- Texas and dealing with Blue Northers?  my grand-parents told me a story once about going into a movie theater when it was 80 and coming out and it was in the teens when they visited friends in Dallas ...circa 1950s.  of course, we see  blizzard and tornado watches sharing real-estate from time to time too... 

 

changeable weather is better than banality, of course.  if i could have my druthers, i'd change it colder in october, and warmer nearing May. not the other way around - jesus. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I just want my classroom as cool as possible until mid June. Then let the fires of hell scorch us

[Typhoon Tip]

I just want my classroom as cool as possible until mid June. Then let the fires of hell scorch us

 

This wells up memories of early heat in spring, sitting there in class in High School.  The back of your thighs below your shorts and above your knees would peal back like tape from those khaki colored Formica seats. Vague aromas of body odor mixed with 1980s big-hair spray, and occasionally traded places with the aroma of freshly cut grass, emanating from the distant riding mower, carried upon the only merciful breeze to pass through the window over the course of the last hour.  There was rumor during the morning, about school being early dismissed because of the warm weather, but we were only an hour and half left before 2:45 dismissal, so apparently the call was never made.  

 

Instead, the air will smell like cold rain in early November.  

[CoastalWx]

Tippy I'm certainly not wishing 30s...just a fascinating temp gradient where 50 miles might mean 45F or 85F.  As far as Dendrite goes....I'd shoot for snow because the alternative of 35 and rain simply sucks. Shoot for the anomalies.

[ORH_wxman]

Tippy I'm certainly not wishing 30s...just a fascinating temp gradient where 50 miles might mean 45F or 85F.  As far as Dendrite goes....I'd shoot for snow because the alternative of 35 and rain simply sucks. Shoot for the anomalies.

 

Yeah if it's not gonna be 60-80F and dry, I'll take some snow...beats 37-42F wind-blown rain.

 

Looks like we'll be too far south though...so we'll enjoy our 38F rain.

 

There actually may be two more systems that threaten NNE with snow over the next 10 days...pretty blocked pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tippy I'm certainly not wishing 30s...just a fascinating temp gradient where 50 miles might mean 45F or 85F.  As far as Dendrite goes....I'd shoot for snow because the alternative of 35 and rain simply sucks. Shoot for the anomalies.

 

oh i know - ... agreed, if it snows ...I mean, actually snows, sure - 

 

i've seen it snow on May 22nd, that's may record latest day living at this latitude between the Great Lakes and SNE.  

 

sick to admit, but i'd love to see it snow in June during GW. haha

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah if it's not gonna be 60-80F and dry, I'll take some snow...beats 37-42F wind-blown rain.

 

Looks like we'll be too far south though...so we'll enjoy our 38F rain.

 

sarcasm duly noted and appreciated  

[dendrite]

Tippy I'm certainly not wishing 30s...just a fascinating temp gradient where 50 miles might mean 45F or 85F.  As far as Dendrite goes....I'd shoot for snow because the alternative of 35 and rain simply sucks. Shoot for the anomalies.

Yeah...I'm cheering it on. It'll melt in a heartbeat anyways.

[Typhoon Tip]

While we are ruining a pointless model thread with anecdotals ... the earliest i've seen it snow is October 14, back here in 2010.. The Patriots played that day - least I think it was the 14th (never sure on exact dates).  I've smelled that "snowy air" smell from chilly weather lake effect rain showers in the first week of October in Michigan but it's really hard to snow early there because the lakes themselves add heat to the atmosphere as early polar outbreaks pass from the plains of Minnesota and Wisconsin across the Lakes. 25 becomes 40 ...or so. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like a few inches for Gene up there in the high el of the lakes region. 

[CoastalWx]

Would be neat if even high spots of ORH county could get something...but might be a bit too warm near 850. Wonder if the column could do IP though with cold 925-950 temps.