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April Pattern Disco -2016


Damage In Tolland

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After next week..it's off to the torches it would appear. Mayorch gonna roast

 

 

  1. Folks living in the East, especially the Northeast... get ready for a stretch of warm and sunny weather. #Spring

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    @MJVentrice Note this is after a week of cool and cloudy weather (next week)

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personally ... i'm less affronted by the notion of cooler than a normal (or at least suppressed to normalcy) wrt to temperatures spanning the next week to 10 days incoming.  For the first time in this run up to the -NAO regime, the teleonnectors have apparently stabilized, and the bevy of operational guidance sources appear to be on an agreeable and most importantly, "continuous" page with their overall mass-field/trends therein. 

 

not talking snow here (frankly, i'd be shocked if anyone saw snow again below 2,000' elevation until the next autumn).

 

things can and will change, but just as things set as of this morning, and taking into account the last 24 to 36 hour's worth of modeling cycles et al, that seems the way to go.  

 

after 7 to 10 days, i'm sure this entire picture will have changed.  one thing that is interesting for me is that statistically, aren't warn ENSO event springs warmer than normal?  i'm not entirely sure - hence the question - because I've also heard that warn ENSO winters tend to be back-built (which I assume to mean cold and snow loaded in the 2nd halves).  Not sure if there is an over-lap there, or if somehow back-loaded winters magically and squarely ended upon the Meteorological first day of spring ... where/when it can be statistically shown (if perhaps in yore) that the patterns flipped warm... 

 

somehow i doubt the nebular affairs of fickle atmospheres behaved in such orderly prescriptions - but that's just me.

 

so which is it.. ?   maybe its just a summer thing.  

 

anyway, the GEFs derived mass-fields really portend a 'slow death of a cool pattern', type of transition.  anyone saying anything else is selling something.   

 

so let me pitch my bargain :)   

 

there's an extenuating sort of factors/concern when assessing the immediate (meaning < three week) pattern tendencies.

 

this is the time of year when doing so is next to kin of crazy.  things are falling apart, the correlation to mass-fields that is. the wave lengths everywhere around the hemisphere are shortening some sin() value every day, the gradients between acmes and nadirs in the heights relaxing therein.  what all that means is, despite any teleconnector look, or even how well the operational blends and trends fit into said looks ... things can break differently than those arguments would suggest from time to time.  

 

those times are when general summer loather's team gets into battle royales with Kevin and his army of sniper posters while both sides play games with interpretation.  

 

here's my theory:  spring does this on purpose, because it is all a grand stage upon which the play-writes Marionette the players of folly and fame. who are the players - those unwitting egos, manipulated by the deception of model operators who are same gods that write the play.  it's all an on-going comedy to keep them entertained. i bet if no one paid any attention and didn't allow them selves to get motivated by the lies, the show would normalize and things would be much more orderly in the reality that i clearly have presently parted company with ... of course, this would infuriate the gods, who would thus be deprived of their entertainment - at which time a comet would be discovered on a collision course with Earth...  so, heh, maybe we ought to keep tryin'.  

 

heh. back here on Earth, i suspect we'll survive a pattern than would be colder than normal 200 years ago, but because GW is a trend line with a mighty steep slope, all this may mean something closer to normal.

 

but no "heat" in that sense.  not unless the second act of spring comes in with a huge plot twist.  we'll see - 

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Sorry, but that makes no sense. A warm December is still technically cold. A cold July is still warm.

 

Huh - "relative to normal" is perfectly mathematically correct, and in fact, is the parlance of science. 

 

I guess you mean, 'makes no sense' relative to the vernacular of Jo Jack internet - okay.  

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Huh - "relative to normal" is perfectly mathematically correct, and in fact, is the parlance of science. 

 

I guess you mean, 'makes no sense' relative to the vernacular of Jo Jack internet - okay.

When a professional met states "get ready for a warm and sunny stretch" I take that to mean warm relative to normal...aka above normal. I don't take it as "it's going to be warm, but not necessarily above."

Let's say he said it in reference to July. If we ended up with frequent cP airmasses resulting in mucho sun and avg temps of -2F across the region would you say he was correct? 70F and sun in July is technically warm to my skin, but I would not call the day warm. Is an 85F degree day in Yuma in July a warm day too?

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