April Pattern Disco -2016

[rimetree]

http://www.newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/1762-drought-follows-cold-late-spring/

[Cold Miser]

Another day of red flags and burning for all of SNE. Stay safe all

Thank you for making my morning complete with laughter.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm amazed at the 00z GGEM - that's the last model on the planet NOT to exotically dig a pinned -NAO vortex deeply S and displace cold along with it... Yet, it keeps the total SD of the vortex component comparatively weak on that run, and in stead, rushes +10 C, 850 mb lower OV air right up into all of New England by D7 or so...  totally destroying the entire NAO configuration by D8 or 9 at that... 

 

weird -  contrasting, the 00Z Euro lingers the chill appeal and so forth much, much longer.   I wonder if this is an example where an extended GGEM can bust a Euro, because the Euro is waaaaaay over rated as a model beyond D 5?  hm.  

[nzucker]

lol ignore the model but make a comment that quotes a model. Didn't realize you were in Windham county sure looks like Tolland County is 1.1 there drama boy

Half an inch to one inch precipitation over the Northeast in a 10-day period is hardly "wet." I think Blizz is correct this time.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Damage In Tolland, on 19 Apr 2016 - 4:00 PM, said:

Man..must a cold place there in the CTRV.. Hiltons are all alive with blooms on all those species

 

You must live in an amazingly warm spot at 999' because I ate lunch at Bolton Lake and the landscape was bare, even including yards with ornamental trees, and that's at 600-800'.

[Ginx snewx]

Half an inch to one inch precipitation over the Northeast in a 10-day period is hardly "wet." I think Blizz is correct this time.

? we ave 4 inches a  Month in April already at 3.85 add another 1 and we are AN? Hardly dry cmon use your common sense here

[CapturedNature]

? we ave 4 inches a  Month in April already at 3.85 add another 1 and we are AN? Hardly dry cmon use your common sense here

 

I'm at 2.29" so far this month.  My 30+ year April average is 3.47" so if we added 1", I'd be just shy of the normal but I would hardly call that dry.

 

It's the same game every spring as if we suddenly live in a desert.  This, despite the fact that even in our driest years on record we still received more precip. than what most deserts actually average.

 

So, when does the drought watch thread start?  Maybe we should start with water conservation and not water thirsty chemically enhanced and totally unnatural lawns?

[Sugarloaf1989]

With the heat wave coming next week, everything should be in full bloom around here.

[CapturedNature]

With the heat wave coming next week, everything should be in full bloom around here.

 

We'll also have full leaves out if I recall.  They don't even have to be full sized to be consider "full leaf out" by some.

[Sugarloaf1989]

MetHerb, on 20 Apr 2016 - 12:15 PM, said:

We'll also have full leaves out if I recall.  They don't even have to be full sized to be consider "full leaf out" by some.

 

Leaf out was also supposed to happen last November/December if I recall correctly.

[Ginx snewx]

spring persistant pattern, congrats Ginx?

Thanks Dan Leonard

[CoastalWx]

GFS was definitely a different look..but just postpones cold rain for a day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Why would he post yesterday's 12z Euro run?

[Ginx snewx]

Why would he post yesterday's 12z Euro run?

He did yesterday 

[Typhoon Tip]

you guys are laughing ( and lord knows ... pounding Kevin to the point where he's running about a -8 SD ego is hugely necessary ...all the time) but, the 00z and 12z oper. GGEM solutions barely pass much negative departure from this -NAO episode. 

 

In fact, the 12z is even more abandoned on that whole bag comparatively...

 

Now, obviously, that model is joke in the longer term - but ... hm.  I dunnnno.  sometimes the modeling of the NAO can stab us in the back - 

 

I mentioned this the other day, that the stochastic nature of the NAO domain space in the models makes it a bad idea to hoist trophies before verification - just sayin'.    I don't think the Euro would be the first model to support the typically wrong GGEM, simply because the Euro has an amplitude bias over E Canada to overcome in the middle/extended time frames, to begin with. 

 

interesting.. .  But the GFS also displaced the polar (mean) boundary somewhat N of priors, too and that "could" be the beginning of the knife tip going into the back.   

[Damage In Tolland]

We knife tip

[Typhoon Tip]

and if so,  it would be for reasons that were utterly oblivious to you.

 

that's ...incredible really -

[ORH_wxman]

and if so,  it would be for reasons that were utterly oblivious to you.

 

that's ...incredible really -

 

 

[champy]

you guys are laughing ( and lord knows ... pounding Kevin to the point where he's running about a -8 SD ego is hugely necessary ...all the time) but, the 00z and 12z oper. GGEM solutions barely pass much negative departure from this -NAO episode. 

 

 

I've noticed that certain posters on here are the first to jump on Kevin but their "I want cold and snow all year even in summer!" bias shows through like a red flag. Between Ginx and Coastal you'd think we're entering another ice age. That ends my second post for the year. Flame away.

[Ginx snewx]

I've noticed that certain posters on here are the first to jump on Kevin but their "I want cold and snow all year even in summer!" bias shows through like a red flag. Between Ginx and Coastal you'd think we're entering another ice age. That ends my second post for the year. Flame away.

both of us said temps would be normal to slightly below??? Crack kills

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting Euro run for N ORH county over to Berkshires for early next week. Shows a little snow event.

[Ginx snewx]

Why would he post yesterday's 12z Euro run?

Today!! congrats

[CoastalWx]

S/W timing seems the big issue with a boundary to our south...but the euro is consistent to a point. 

[Ginx snewx]

S/W timing seems the big issue with a boundary to our south...but the euro is consistent to a point. 

 shhh ,Champy who by the way has posted a lot more than twice this year, will think you are calling for an all out blizzard. What exactly is wrong with these people? I mean I know I have, and you have, discussed the possibility that this weeks boundary could lead to a colder outcome or we end up near normal. What we have said is big big heat is not in the cards despite the entire Met community discussing it.

[CoastalWx]

 shhh ,Champy who by the way has posted a lot more than twice this year, will think you are calling for an all out blizzard. What exactly is wrong with these people? I mean I know I have, and you have, discussed the possibility that this weeks boundary could lead to a colder outcome or we end up near normal. What we have said is big big heat is not in the cards despite the entire Met community discussing it.

I certainly would not forecast snow at the moment. Low pressure could amplify and make for a cold rain with warm fropa, followed by cold fropa.  Bottom line is that I do not see a prolonged AN pattern at least heading into the very beginning of May. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Today!! congrats

for rain and 50?

Thanks?

[Ginx snewx]

for rain and 50?

Thanks?

Welcome, turn up the heat

[Typhoon Tip]

I think unless the pattern indicators are more obvious "big heat" ( if we define that by, say ...85 + in April, or 100 in July)  no one in their right mind would "seriously" discuss it as though it were even possible. 

 

Which this wasn't.   

 

...yet anyway.  

 

Still, I think what that Champ' person was after is that he/she "senses" by folks' word and/or turn of phrase choices, that they may bring a hidden sort of bias?   

 

either way, I didn't mean to start any flack - I was just yanking Kevin's chain.  I know I've been put off by that sort of thing in the past, but ...seeing as there's no way to change that phenomenon, Champ' may want to give that a rest.  People are going to contribute what they want, and...well, if what they want doesn't come with May - October 30 type weather, they're going to shine on that way from time to time. 

 

so what?  to each is own... 

 

Personally, ...sure, I want a complete sans of anything cool/cold or none summer like, but... I'm lucky in a sense in that I also appreciate interesting atmospheric/natural events; any time we can discuss late April and snow in the same sentence(s), I think that certainly qualifies.   I get to ride the fence.   But, when the time comes for "Sonoran Heat Releases" and EML's and chances for record highs and heat wave recognition/patterns ...I'm all in with that too.  

 

....back to topic...  I do think these GGEM ideas should be watched.  Not sure why I think that considering, as we all know, the GGEM should really not be run (jesus).  But, perhaps because ...heh, that Euro run is just absurdly ignoring seasonal change bringing next ice-age cold air masses deep into the Atlantic nearing May 1 ...I think it's possible that it corrects back toward something more sensible. Adding to that, the Euro carves out heights too much over SE Canada as an on-going ...seemingly ignored bias.  Sometimes more subtle than gross.  The GFS actually has been occasionally 'elongating' the SPV structure, causing most westerly winds through out latitudes ...and thus, it's boundary is a bit N.  

 

tough call there given to the time of year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

in any event ... nice sneaky warm couple of days incoming...

 

MOS' now over 75 for tomorrow and over 80 actually in interior sites the next day.  LI's down to -1 regionally ... this may be warm air that actually comes in with a some fledgling seasonal DPs.   

 

Then we bide time see just how deeply this supposed -NAO recesses the season

[Damage In Tolland]

in any event ... nice sneaky warm couple of days incoming...

 

MOS' now over 75 for tomorrow and over 80 actually in interior sites the next day.  LI's down to -1 regionally ... this may be warm air that actually comes in with a some fledgling seasonal DPs.   

 

Then we bide time see just how deeply this supposed -NAO recesses the season

Yeah the models picked up on the uber warmth with 80 last weekend and this week..but continued it too long and torched next week which most mets fell for. I know the energy guys are bringing it back big time by early May.