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April Pattern Disco -2016

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

i don't think anyone can be taking trophies, or even making claims on anything regarding the sensible weather between now and May 10 or so...  not yet anyway.

 

for one, duh - nothings verified yet.   it seems certain participators in the forum universe get dumber and like DE learn those embarrassing lessons they had to learn 10 years ago - oh well. 

 

for another, isn't the NAO domain space the most fickle and stochastic/difficult mass-field to deterministic meteorology?  i'm singularly impressed with the persistent and broadly agreed upon negative NAO that is set to unfold for the next week or so, but .. secondarily to the stochastic NAO dilemma is that particulars in how it and indirect features around it, construct themselves, has a huge variance for New England.   for example, a few cycles over the last day and half, i have noticed a kind of "squashing" ...an elongation more west to east with the spv pinned N of us by the NAO block.

 

 if that version becomes more the reality ... that's a lot different implication on temperatures than having a more n-s oriented flow for obvious reason.  we could end up seasonally cool with windy days with most deeper chill unable to really advect through the area.  

 

...there's a lot to consider there.  the entire positive-negative height region couplet could have also been over-zealously modeled in terms of their differences ...that also would effect time and depth of any cool anomalies.  

 

i dunno - i think it's wasted band-width to take trophies.  just sayin'.   

 

i do, however, HUGELY disagree that there is any "busting" going on - no idea where/what motivated that. i think it can be proven in black and white text that most were level-minded and tempered any expectations going forward for ether.  there was one source, however, that really went JB with the warming ... so we'll see 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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i don't think anyone can be taking trophies, or even making claims on anything regarding the sensible weather between now and May 10 or so...  not yet anyway.

 

for one, duh - nothings verified yet.   it seems certain participators in the forum universe get dumber and like DE learn those embarrassing lessons they had to learn 10 years ago - oh well. 

 

for another, isn't the NAO domain space the most fickle and stochastic/difficult mass-field to deterministic meteorology?  i'm singularly impressed with the persistent and broadly agreed upon negative NAO that is set to unfold for the next week or so, but .. secondarily to the stochastic NAO dilemma is that particulars in how it and indirect features around it, construct themselves, has a huge variance for New England.   for example, a few cycles over the last day and half, i have noticed a kind of "squashing" ...an elongation more west to east with the spv pinned N of us by the NAO block.

 

 if that version becomes more the reality ... that's a lot different implication on temperatures than having a more n-s oriented flow for obvious reason.  we could end up seasonally cool with windy days with most deeper chill unable to really advect through the area.  

 

...there's a lot to consider there.  the entire positive-negative height region couplet could have also been over-zealously modeled in terms of their differences ...that also would effect time and depth of any cool anomalies.  

 

i dunno - i think it's wasted band-width to take trophies.  just sayin'.   

 

i do, however, HUGELY disagree that there is any "busting" going on - no idea where/what motivated that. 

 

NE CT poster?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

red flag issues don't really pertain to soil moisture content, per se - though soil moisture certainly helps.

 

it's mostly low RH in air, along with warm temperatures, accelerating the drying of dead material lane over from the previous winter. Being in said ultra dry environment, becomes a tinder-keg. red flag issues happen more frequently at this time of year then at any other time because this is the mostly likely tandem occurrence of warming temperatures with dry air. 

 

A month from now, green-up will be passe, and evapotranspiration from here to Timbuktu will mean the ambient RH will rarely fall below 50 % save for any brief incursions of polar air that only bounce back to 50% within 24 or so hours; otherwise, humid days will be arriving anyway, which limits the effectiveness of most fuel sources.

yeah....low RH and wind.

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tamarack

tamarack

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Posted

yeah....low RH and wind.

 

Plus the ground litter Tip noted, being cooked underneath bare-limbed trees.  Once the trilliums and trout lilies turn the forest floor green under increasing shade, fire danger drops way back until early fall, unless there's a 1960s-level drought going on.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Plus the ground litter Tip noted, being cooked underneath bare-limbed trees.  Once the trilliums and trout lilies turn the forest floor green under increasing shade, fire danger drops way back until early fall, unless there's a 1960s-level drought going on.

 

I have an idea for a sci-fi thriller novel called, "Fire Storm" - tho it would be too niche to appeal to many...

 

it starts with a 10 year sort of lower than normal system hemispheric pattern that targets s-se canad the Lakes and New England.  then we get a uber drought summer... talkin' Quabin Res down to ancient church steeples poking out of the water down near the bottom of a ringed escarpment type desperation... think lake mead's current dilemma in a region where such deficits pretty my can't happen - or can they in a GW ;)   

 

then, this orange pine diseases that killing groves of them along the area highways, turning them all into a 50 to 100 foot tall roman candles in wait.  plus, the drought is severe enough that even the deciduous specious have that mid September wilt vomit green by early July ...while 97 F / 52% RH continues to suck life out of the broad-band biota from southern Ontario to the Nation's capital. 

 

then, a lightning strike's some hapless tree 30 mi NW of Toronto Canada during a the generation of a derecho...  50 to 90 mph fire wind explodes through the tinder and bows SE through New England in a 10 hour terror that is a first of its kind, and is for all intents and purpose ...an apocalypse by fire for this entire region... we're talking darkening skies and temperature's spiking eerily from infrared photonics like that which radiates from a distant meteorite impact.  birds flying in huge flocks (shameful steal) like that scene in Day After Tomorrow.... people in towns, fields, yards...everyone in pause, peering at the sky...wondering what the f is going on. 

 

i just don't think the development of plot is something that would keep a reader enthralled.  and the spectacle via the writing is ... too absurd to really be believable.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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i'm almost wondering if the NAO domain, being a function of the N-stream...is now being over-zealous in the GFS.  It's odd to see that particular model being the deepest and most butt-bangus with our weather as a result. 

 

j/k... seriously, tho - for spring/warm seekers, that run could not be any more violating to the fundamental principles for which you stand by.  ahahha...  man, what a fluster cluck is that mid and extended range. total rang gape is what that model does to our weather through month's end. 

 

one thing i am noticing, most of that thriller -NAO and it's utter obliteration of anything useful to anyone ...is all D5 +...  in a sense...the next 2 day's worth of modeling will tell us if it's all legit, or if something of a lesser magnitude might actually come of all that.  hm   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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That sums it up.

 

i don't know why so many participating members here even respond to it in the first place - really.  that's the problem.  take away the audience, the performer stops doing the show.  

 

that's what sums it up.   

 

frankly, regardless of how swell a guy he is, his type antic is the most toxic to this site, IF IF IF it really is the charter of this source to be both entertaining, AND, a place to get useful information if not learning for those enthusiasts and the like, or even professionals seeking honest opinions on how specific events affect people/regions...

 

all of that is harmfully diminished by spin, lies, exaggeration ...particularly when it is wilfully administered. 

 

freedom to express to a point, but it should NOT be a free-for-all.  kind of like how the constitution allows free-speach, but it is illegal to yell fire in a crowded theater - 

 

i'm happy to buy the guy a beer and reminisce events of lore and so forth... but the other stuff?  i very rarely even acknowledge it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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while it certainly would be entertaining as hell to see that set up this late in a dying winter season... i gotta take the under in terms of that extreme of a gradient.   

 

if that slope is on the D3/4 range, okay - otherwise, i bet that gets normalized by the usual suspects. ...at least some.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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while it certainly would be entertaining as hell to see that set up this late in a dying winter season... i gotta take the under in terms of that extreme of a gradient.   

 

if that slope is on the D3/4 range, okay - otherwise, i bet that gets normalized by the usual suspects. ...at least some.  

Same thing happened today. Went from modeled 40's to 60's as we closed

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'll believe it when I see it. Lots of extended euro faux snow this year. With that said, it definitely looks cool. Not much naping.

 

 

Yeah but our April snow threats verify this year. :lol:

 

 

I probably wouldn't forecast snow that late until it got inside of 72 hours...but it's funny to see it appearing on various model runs. That is a sick PV in SE Canada.

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