Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2016 Author Share Posted April 18, 2016 Noyes has 60s all next week That is probably what happens if it's sunny.Dry NW flow is not cold this time of year if sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Tip and I were even saying to watch that vortex. There was already modeled blocking too. Not surprised at all. Blocking trended stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 No Mayorch on weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 No Mayorch on weeklies. something to say about all that cold in Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Tip and I were even saying to watch that vortex. There was already modeled blocking too. Not surprised at all. Blocking trended stronger too.did you email each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 did you email each other? ?? It was in an earlier thread. He was commenting on how the temp gradient was so intense to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Would love one more just to see people's reactions Maybe some snow for interior SNE on the euro next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Chris posted the ensemble guidance that showed about equal chances of very warm and very cold weather. So the current trend toward cold end of month was as likely as the warm one that Kevin was locking in. In short, there was no real reason to be locking in big warm departures. Yeah...we had been on that battleground on guidance. I was hoping the ridging over greenland would trend weaker with time like it has all winter, but of course it's mid April so now we'll get the blocking to verify or even trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 ?? It was in an earlier thread. He was commenting on how the temp gradient was so intense to the north.k lol old joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Yeah...we had been on that battleground on guidance. I was hoping the ridging over greenland would trend weaker with time like it has all winter, but of course it's mid April so now we'll get the blocking to verify or even trend stronger.did any model show the cold spell at the start of April 3 weeks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Yeah...we had been on that battleground on guidance. I was hoping the ridging over greenland would trend weaker with time like it has all winter, but of course it's mid April so now we'll get the blocking to verify or even trend stronger. Solid +3 SD on the EPS. The colors are decidedly not pretty on the mid level maps. You know if you're into spring weather and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Solid +3 SD on the EPS. The colors are decidedly not pretty on the mid level maps. You know if you're into spring weather and all. Also known as golf weather grrrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Also known as golf weather grrrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Euro and GFS are interesting early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Euro starting to back off on the silly brutal cold shot it had thankfully. Suspect we'll see that continue as we get closer. Look at what happened to today. What was modeled to be 40's to low 50's has ended up 60-65 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Looks like with little to no rain thru this weekend except a few showers Fri..we are going to burn with Red Flags flying today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Euro starting to back off on the silly brutal cold shot it had thankfully. Suspect we'll see that continue as we get closer. Look at what happened to today. What was modeled to be 40's to low 50's has ended up 60-65 ish Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Wut? Op looked less cold overall than 12z was yesterday..At least there was a warm day that wasn't there yesterday..which generally is a signal the model is starting to back off. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Looks like with little to no rain thru this weekend except a few showers Fri..we are going to burn with Red Flags flying today Right. Because it hasn't rained around here for weeks upon weeks and it won't rain for weeks more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Right. Because it hasn't rained around here for weeks upon weeks and it won't rain for weeks more. idk about today but red flags will probably be up for some on thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Right. Because it hasn't rained around here for weeks upon weeks and it won't rain for weeks more. Do some yard work. Dig down in beds or grass. Tell me how dry the soil is and underbrush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Op looked less cold overall than 12z was yesterday..At least there was a warm day that wasn't there yesterday..which generally is a signal the model is starting to back off. We'll see The problem is that this time of year, you can't go by pretty colors. The boundary is closer now so instead of sun and cool temps aloft, it's cold NE winds and precip. The former, despite colder temps aloft, is warmer at the surface due to sunshine. Get clouds and NE winds this time of year....and it's disaster. I don't care what the temp is at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Meh. My soil is still plenty moist despite not much rain in a week and low RHs. Red flag warnings happen every year too...they're NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 The problem is that this time of year, you can't go by pretty colors. The boundary is closer now so instead of sun and cool temps aloft, it's cold NE winds and precip. The former, despite colder temps aloft, is warmer at the surface due to sunshine. Get clouds and NE winds this time of year....and it's disaster. I don't care what the temp is at 850. The -KFS knows this...the +KFS, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 The -KFS knows this...the +KFS, naso much. Clearly there is no bias correction...or perhaps too much bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 idk about today but red flags will probably be up for some on thu. Yeah. I suppose, but it seems in many cases it isn't a big deal for the most part around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 Meh. My soil is still plenty moist despite not much rain in a week and low RHs. Red flag warnings happen every year too...they're NBD. You've been wetter. Bottom line. We are burning and going to burn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 The problem is that this time of year, you can't go by pretty colors. The boundary is closer now so instead of sun and cool temps aloft, it's cold NE winds and precip. The former, despite colder temps aloft, is warmer at the surface due to sunshine. Get clouds and NE winds this time of year....and it's disaster. I don't care what the temp is at 850. It's like mets have been saying..Euro being Euro in long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 red flag issues don't really pertain to soil moisture content, per se - though soil moisture certainly helps. it's mostly low RH in air, along with warm temperatures, accelerating the drying of dead material lane over from the previous winter. Being in said ultra dry environment, becomes a tinder-keg. red flag issues happen more frequently at this time of year then at any other time because this is the mostly likely tandem occurrence of warming temperatures with dry air. A month from now, green-up will be passe, and evapotranspiration from here to Timbuktu will mean the ambient RH will rarely fall below 50 % save for any brief incursions of polar air that only bounce back to 50% within 24 or so hours; otherwise, humid days will be arriving anyway, which limits the effectiveness of most fuel sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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