Randy4Confluence Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Even a financial network says its coming. Rejoice! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/26/polar-vortex-set-to-menace-us-in-a-week-report.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 The polar vortex in April. I mean it's a cold shot, but what nonsense with that headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It is a ridiculous cold shot as modeled. There's only so much sun can do to -20C at H85 if that's what verified. If its sunny you are right it'd be way over but on the flip side the overnight lows would be colder with clear skies. You would have to verify temps at BDL though, because the hilltops would be colder in a nice CAA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10. -20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th. I don't see 18z temps that cold at 2m on the 12z run. I have mid 20s up there and mid/upper 30 in the lower terrain of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It's a shame that we are going to waste this cold air. It would have been nice to get a storm during the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 Wish we could somehow moderate that airmass or just avoid it altogether . That's going to be awful . Cold, dry, windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Wish we could somehow moderate that airmass or just avoid it altogether . That's going to be awful . Cold, dry, windyI don't know, reminds me of the setup from late March last year. Would not be surprised at all if something pops up underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It's a shame that we are going to waste this cold air. It would have been nice to get a storm during the first week of April. Purely for interesting Meteorology's sake ...perhaps. Seasonally? ...depends on who one is and their personal druthers. Seasonally there are those of us that understand the futility of any snow in April, and also embrace and enjoy summer season type events enough to look forward to that season's fair and timely onset ... not stolen away by fore-said futility. Buuuut April, year-to-year, is Satan's month if you ask me... more often, colder and more miserable even than that particular angel's own heart, so to be realistic, ...I don't think anyone's bankin' on summery affairs at this time of year just the same. The passage of time is just as inevitable as July is denied in the unconscious mind of the person enjoying a snow storm after April 1... (hell, March 15 in my eyes). For that, the edge goes back to 'why' ... who cares - or should - in the first week of April. Man, I hate this f time of year. Please, pleezy weezy with sugar on top ... gain me a windfall of wealth enough to sustain a second home in a far away land, so I can sans this god-forsaken spring climate and come back when it is certainly safe to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 Thankfully the Euro lifts it out very quickly after 2-3 days it's back to AN with strong PAC/westerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Thankfully the Euro lifts it out very quickly after 2-3 days it's back to AN with strong PAC/westerly flowEPS is much slower in kicking out the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 EPS is much slower in kicking out the cold. Hopefully wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Hopefully wrong Not to be fussy about details this far out but the Euro is probably not "Above Normal" in the restoring period of that outlook; rather, that +2 at 850 may be closer to normal once the region gets to ~ April 10 ...certainly shortly there after. Having said that ... I do think that a significant warm period is plausible as we approach the ides of the month and beyond... The teleconnectors are hugely recovering from the erstwhile -EPO..,. That index is completely neutralized in the GEFs derivatives (haven't seen any EPS -based solutions), and the nearer term cold dump will also at that time (as hinted now in these operational runs) be staled and departing. Even though the PNA may be modestly positive, the NAO is also positive and with the EPO flipping signs entirely by April 15 and thus ending cold loading ... odds are heights rise in the east - speculatively... but, could see the result of all that being a much more solid and persistent seasonal recovery - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It's a shame that we are going to waste this cold air. It would have been nice to get a storm during the first week of April. I think the 0z GFS brings white to some degree at least here in the form,of squalls with some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I think the 0z GFS brings white to some degree at least here in the form,of squalls with some accumulation. Squall fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Snow fetish...of any type shape, form, degree, size, strength, agility, backwards, forwards, sideways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 EPS is much slower in kicking out the cold.Persistence this year has been a cold shot followed by a vigorous shortwave that amplifies early, which we end up on the warm side of...That said, perhaps a very strong -EPO ridge is a sign this pattern is finally breaking down.... Would be too little too late for those in SNE, in terms of wintry weather with the exception of an outside chance. Wondering if the BDF we saw the other day, was signaling where the cold will hang on longer through first half of April. That would be very good news for the big skiing locations in NNE... I'm already planning on heading to bretton woods next wknd for some snowboarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Persistence this year has been a cold shot followed by a vigorous shortwave that amplifies early, which we end up on the warm side of... That said, perhaps a very strong -EPO ridge is a sign this pattern is finally breaking down.... Would be too little too late for those in SNE, in terms of wintry weather with the exception of an outside chance. Wondering if the BDF we saw the other day, was signaling where the cold will hang on longer through first half of April. That would be very good news for the big skiing locations in NNE... I don't think it is ... I think it's just a larger mass field sea-saw that take 7 or so days to complete... the other side of which will feature more a permanent seasonal recovery. Ridge pops up...cold gets dumped S, floods the GL-NE, ridge erodes and dissipates, back to the same old - The -EPO has been forecast (at least by the GEFs) to be transient, lasting said length give or take. If it were longer term tendency I'd be more inclined to agree... but as is, it's really just an annoying and temporary reason to fend off an otherwise timely arrival of spring. For these users that hold out for snow 'through early August' ...yeah, maybe it'll snow some on the book ends of it - after all, can't really snow in warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I don't think it is ... I think it's just a larger mass field sea-saw that take 7 or so days to complete... the other side of which will feature more a permanent seasonal recovery. Ridge pops up...cold gets dumped S, floods the GL-NE, ridge erodes and dissipates, back to the same old - The -EPO has been forecast (at least by the GEFs) to be transient, lasting said length give or take. If it were longer term tendency I'd be more inclined to agree... but as is, it's really just an annoying and temporary reason to fend off an otherwise timely arrival of spring. For these users that hold out for snow 'through early August' ...yeah, maybe it'll snow some on the book ends of it - after all, can't really snow in warm air. Yea, as I stated before chances are--based on persistence and seasonal changes--you'll be correct.However, the staying power of the low level cold in the face of the previous system was pretty damn impressive. We haven't seen that all year. There's also substantial snowpack in Quebec and Maine. A good portion of southern Quebec and NNE looks to cash in again on Tuesday. That should also help tip the scales in favor of the cold wanting to stick around in adjacent locales, even in the face of approaching warm fronts... I'm looking at this in the context of the outcome of the previous system through the pattern setting up next wknd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Snow fetish...of any type shape, form, degree, size, strength, agility, backwards, forwards, sideways Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Probably an accumulating snow situation pops up after all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I understand why you're saying that but maybe not also because like this 12 the GFS and last night 00 Euro both them backing off on the depth and length of cold also breaking down thaEPO faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Yea. I'm also finding it odd that the peak warmth this week is modeled to coincide with the apex of the -EPO ridge. Looks to me like that warmth is at risk, much like it was last week, and we'd be open for a big Canadian high to build in mid week and back door, after the Monday/Tuesday system moves through. Looks like a very chaotic UL flow on wed/thurs. Wouldn't be surprised to see the sensible weather change quite a bit as we approach that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Purely for interesting Meteorology's sake ...perhaps. Seasonally? ...depends on who one is and their personal druthers. Seasonally there are those of us that understand the futility of any snow in April, and also embrace and enjoy summer season type events enough to look forward to that season's fair and timely onset ... not stolen away by fore-said futility. Buuuut April, year-to-year, is Satan's month if you ask me... more often, colder and more miserable even than that particular angel's own heart, so to be realistic, ...I don't think anyone's bankin' on summery affairs at this time of year just the same. The passage of time is just as inevitable as July is denied in the unconscious mind of the person enjoying a snow storm after April 1... (hell, March 15 in my eyes). For that, the edge goes back to 'why' ... who cares - or should - in the first week of April. Man, I hate this f time of year. Please, pleezy weezy with sugar on top ... gain me a windfall of wealth enough to sustain a second home in a far away land, so I can sans this god-forsaken spring climate and come back when it is certainly safe to do so. I think if a snow event popped up anyone with any meteorological interest would be pulled back in regardless of whether you like the summer or not. I don't get these posts sometimes but also know shiznit is boring as f right now so it's fun to wander into the mind of a snow lover? I don't think it's just snow, like in late September it's sort of like "I wish we could steal one more severe event before summer is slammed shut." But the bottom line is that for the next month still, a snowstorm is about the most exciting thing meteorologically that could happen...whether you want it or not. There's not much other options for exciting weather this time of year so why not look for the blue bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like a few chances of damaging wind this week Mon nite/ Tuesday and again Friday. Both times risk is 50+. Let's take some down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I think if a snow event popped up anyone with any meteorological interest would be pulled back in regardless of whether you like the summer or not. I don't get these posts sometimes but also know shiznit is boring as f right now so it's fun to wander into the mind of a snow lover? I don't think it's just snow, like in late September it's sort of like "I wish we could steal one more severe event before summer is slammed shut." But the bottom line is that for the next month still, a snowstorm is about the most exciting thing meteorologically that could happen...whether you want it or not. There's not much other options for exciting weather this time of year so why not look for the blue bomb? and truth be told ... really you're good to go right through much of April. I know it sounds '...old man in a rocking chair' but there is a reason why a million years of climo instructs leaves don't come out on trees around here until after the 15th of April - in general and it obviously later than that up your way. granted there are extreme years where early and often warmth prompted budding unusually early, but over the long hull green up is the 2nd the 3rd week of April most years. it's really about probability curve sloped negatively, and as every day goes by you lose some if its snow that draws one into this maddening hobby. contrasting in Autumn ... our fleeting chances at a tropical season at least pre-occupies and limits the stress of waiting out the doldrums to ~ one half the time spent in the schits of event dearth-dom. I'll tell ya, it's why i like my winters front-end loaded.. Think about it for a moment, by October 1 you're talking March 11 sun angle - why not? ..oh, right - that stupid problem with atmospheric memory and seasonal lag. darn! But some years ...albeit rare, the which of November comes early. the best year for that i can recall was the 1995 autumn. it was gradient-like, and as near-by as NYC was still on the equatorial side of the mean polar boundary, granted; but while that was happening, up at UML at college we are into our 2nd sleet/snow storm prior to T-Giving, with no 'tweener melting, either. right into Xmass baby! then of course, as if we deserved anything more, we frosted over with that megalopolis blizzard on January 9. by the time the thaw hit that year, personally i was duly sated in my winter entitlement and no longer cared ... ha! man, that year was pure winter crapulence - I think of that year? and this one is perfectly opposite that. hey, check out the NAM FRH grid up at AFA ... that's like gusting to 55 mph in a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Wish we could somehow moderate that airmass or just avoid it altogether . That's going to be awful . Cold, dry, windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 GFS showing its ridiculous cold bias. EPS backing off big time on cold shot and duration of it. Quick warming middle of next week FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Dude that's not even some same hr image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Dude that's not even some same hr image. Lol, Scott, local tv met said cold may go for a week with a chance of something next week, ready to take our last plow off in the next few days...ur thoughts? Thanks and have a great Monday, Philip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 Dude that's not even some same hr image. Talk to Ed Vallee then lol.Either way nice to see some back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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