ariof Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Marathon speculation question: there's a combined sea breeze and backdoor coming in some time on Monday. GFS (MAV) MOS has BOS going to 60 mid-morning then down, NAM (MET) has BOS going to 72, BED to 67 and 76. Euro seems to split the difference and peak BOS around 62, BED (and KHOPkinton) to about 68. Any thoughts on which is more likely? Kind of a big deal for about 30,000 crazy people … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 I'd bet the NAM ends up closer to reality than anything else. This is its bread and butter. Usually performs very well with doors. Most of the marathon should be under temps in 60's to near 70. Once sun comes up temps will rocket up. But I'd also think by 2:00 PM the door opens and screen doors slam shut by NE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Euro is probably getting flakes mixed in Tuesday aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 If it was 75/80 all day and didn't sea breeze it would be manageable. But my (maybe incorrect) interpretation was the cold currents and ocean up there would generate some nasty sea breezes most afternoons that would penetrate pretty far inland. That's just what I thought happened up there. Kind of how many afternoons along the Maine coast are ruinedWhile I appreciate your stab at interpreting our local weather, it's simply not true. Do we get sea breezes in the summer? sure, but they are not widespread, they don't knock summer temps down to the 50's, and they might get 10-15miles inland. Been to the beach plenty of times with temps in the low to mid 80's. Our weather is similar to the cape. Water temps get to high 60's to near 70. Good enough for a hearty soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 While I appreciate your stab at interpreting our local weather, it's simply not true. Do we get sea breezes in the summer? sure, but they are not widespread, they don't knock summer temps down to the 50's, and they might get 10-15miles inland. Been to the beach plenty of times with temps in the low to mid 80's. Our weather is similar to the cape. Water temps get to high 60's to near 70. Good enough for a hearty soul.I couldn't do it. Looking back at YHZ climate data I see too many highs in the 40s and 50s in June for my liking. I'd probably love mid July through September there though. I need to get up there sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Average high last July was 61. That was an especially bad month. And that's pretty bad. My coldest met summer month when we lived in N. Maine was August 1982, when we had flakes on the 28th (at 970' elev.) Avg high that month was 67.8, the banana belt compared to what you had last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 And that's pretty bad. My coldest met summer month when we lived in N. Maine was August 1982, when we had flakes on the 28th (at 970' elev.) Avg high that month was 67.8, the banana belt compared to what you had last summer. the july before had an average high of 77 and a mean of 68...one of the warmest on record. Hoping for more like that. Last July was apprarently fog and rain city...just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Last week of Napril looks like an all out furnace. Install perhaps next week.Install heaters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Couple days of 80's now being signaled on both the Euro op and ENS for around days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Figures a RNA pattern with blocking shows up now. Some prolific winter periods have happened with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 ENS basically keep it warm right thru week 2. Similar to weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Looks like BD potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Looks like BD potential there.Yeah. That's always the case in the northeast. But look at this week. Next 2 days in 70's, then a mild down to 55-60 for a day or 2 before retorch. Overall it's a warm pattern... With maybe a backdoor or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Looks like a dry pattern too. Very little chance for rain other than shower or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Yeah. That's always the case in the northeast. But look at this week. Next 2 days in 70's, then a mild down to 55-60 for a day or 2 before retorch. Overall it's a warm pattern... With maybe a backdoor or 2It could be. It could also be a front nearby too with lows moving along it. It's never good to have a Greenland ridge. That cooler shot comes in later next week too. However, if winds stay NW then we are good to go. You are almost better off this time of year with a trough overhead instead of a ridge on the coast anyways. It ensures more continental flow. Besides, it's good to have rains in Spring. Hoping for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 ENS basically keep it warm right thru week 2. Similar to weeklies That's not a very good interpretation of what that product is indicating ... I call that about 50% correct, which is a failing grade in most parlance. Anyway, that is a slightly east based -NAO (its transience in time and space, notwithstanding), but a strong one, with an equally strong trough component digging through the NW Atlantic Martimes of eastern Canada and more... That imposes a discerned flow that runs more S than E, from E/SE Canada, toward the ESE/SE (i.e., NW). The problem (for "warmistas") is that flow structure/type 'shunts' continental flow from our latitude and longitudes, augmented further by any perturbation ...toting along more local synoptic-scaled, back-side confluence/NVA enhancements ... engendering repeating fresh annoying spring death frost nights with truly depressing on-shore flow regimes. All that means back-dooring would probably be at or above median probability for occurrence, but more importantly, amid a pattern that prevents static continental warmth from being here much in the first place. Having said that ... that's the "as is" appeal for that product. Could it change? sure. Is it changing? absolutely. To what, leave that up to seasonal disarray typical to modeling during the most chaotic transition season of the two, Spring. I've actually noticed there is a kind of large scale sloshing going on in the teleconnectors, ranging from negligent homicide of spring and falling back to eternal winter (sarcasm), which we know is not likely given to the fact that JULY is going to happen one way or the other... The other is more relaxed, more neutralizing fields, ..with even some tendency for more sub-tropical ridge bulging around the critical latitude girdle of the hemisphere. This kind of uncertainty may just be ...call it a third derivative emergent wave form process by the S to N dying maelstrom of winter death and summer height normalizing. In other words, typical of spring (if taking some science fiction prose with that ) seriously, I wouldn't bite too savoring into any depiction - the standard course of least regret at this time of year. If a pistol were pointed at my head, I'd say that if we placed all the possibilities for this last two weeks of April on a pie chart, and gave each one its due percentage chance for occurrence, above normal in general gets the biggest piece - particularly during that last 5 or so days. And ... it won't be because of that product's depiction, which I believe has some chance of being over wrought. It'll be because the base-line probability canvas has to be above normal by decimals anyway, because of the background state of climate flux; but also because the wave-lengths are seasonally changing pretty rapidly ... These teleconnectors don't correlate the same way now going forward, as they do in NDJF ...hell, throw M in there. The operational runs are already struggling with this concept, as the 00z Euro went back to pulling the 0 C 850/ambient polar boundary gradient axis ...well back N again after 24 hours of trying to sell it farther S... back and forth we slosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Yup..one of those deals where BOS is 55..ORH is 65 ..IJD near Steve is 72 and BDL is 75 Not bad. 52 BOS 65 ORH 73 BDL 73 IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Couple days of 80's now being signaled on both the Euro op and ENS for around days 9-10I think we all can agree big big heat and installation is delayed until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 I think we all can agree big big heat and installation is delayed until May. Kevin may want to see what happened to the euro op. Like I said..beware the pig to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 heh where was that greenland block all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Kevin may want to see what happened to the euro op. Like I said..beware the pig to our north. I saw it and since it's got no agreement from EPS it's the same problem it always has. Too much digging.. And too trough happy. I know you aren't locking that in too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Looks like BDL hit at least 74 and possibly 75 off hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 I saw it and since it's got no agreement from EPS it's the same problem it always has. Too much digging.. And too trough happy. I know you aren't locking that in too Look toward Thule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Of course it comes in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 That ridge will be awesome for the Greenland ice melt weenies. Should be some good alarmist talk coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2016 Share Posted April 17, 2016 Of course it comes in April. yea man wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 I'm not buying any of this cold or BN hype . Looks to me like AN pattern with a backdoor or 2. NW flow in late April is not cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 It's a pattern where I could see it sneaky BN..but too early to say. It's not a warm one anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 It's a pattern where I could see it sneaky BN..but too early to say. It's not a warm one anyways.no 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2016 Author Share Posted April 18, 2016 Not buying any cold pattern. Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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