Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 wut? he's actually kinda right - REALLY hate to admit that at any time, but in this case ...heh ... when there is a weak synoptic NE flow in the interior, it's usually associated with compression from high pressure situated N of the region, but "close" by. that compaction of the pressure field both heats the air mass proficiently (the intense mid+ April sun notwithstanding), but also prevents the oceanic breezes from penetrating too far inland. NE doesn't mean doom for N. CT in this scenario... Boston? that's quite a different story. Scott will probably be lobbing troll posts from SE Mass until the continental flow really takes over ...after the tuesday cool down later next week, because he's probably going to be butt-sore by relentless Atlantic hate god - muah hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 he's actually kinda right - REALLY hate to admit that at any time, but in this case ...heh ... when there is a weak synoptic NE flow in the interior, it's usually associated with compression from high pressure situated N of the region, but "close" by. that compaction of the pressure field both heats the air mass proficiently (the intense mid+ April sun notwithstanding), but also prevents the oceanic breezes from penetrating too far inland. NE doesn't mean doom for N. CT in this scenario... Boston? that's quite a different story. Scott will probably be lobbing troll posts from SE Mass until the continental flow really takes over ...after the tuesday cool down later next week, because he's probably going to be butt-sore by relentless Atlantic hate god - muah hahahaha Yup..one of those deals where BOS is 55..ORH is 65 ..IJD near Steve is 72 and BDL is 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Yup..one of those deals where BOS is 55..ORH is 65 ..IJD near Steve is 72 and BDL is 75 75 on Sunday? I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Last week of Napril looks like an all out furnace. Install perhaps next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Last week of Napril looks like an all out furnace. Install perhaps next week. No, you gots to tough it out and let the body acclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 No, you gots to tough it out and let the body acclimate. I have no idea where he sees that but those 75/45 days are brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 this warm up this weekend was never more than seasonally mild ...perhaps augmented by hot sun at this time of year, or off-set cooler by the shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 I have no idea where he sees that but those 75/45 days are brutal It's on all guidance. EPS/GEFS..all show big time heat end of month. Met community is certainly talking about it..even if you're not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 I'm just not seeing widespread 70 + across the interior on Sunday probably lots of mid and upper 60s. What started off as a 65/75 type of look for high temperatures over the weekend in this area is now probably more like a 58/68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Good luck with 75F at BDL with 850s around 5C and NE flow. Not the setup to better H85 by 19C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Good luck with 75F at BDL with 850s around 5C and NE flow. Not the setup to better H85 by 19C. I'm thinking 71-72 actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 I have no idea where he sees that but those 75/45 days are brutal It's on all guidance. EPS/GEFS..all show big time heat end of month. Met community is certainly talking about it..even if you're not Big time heat. 00z EPS with mean highs at BDL between 60 and 65 through the end of the month, with 75th percentiles in 70 to 75 range. But if we want to stretch it the outliers at the end of the month are 90 and 45! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Monday will be the DSD day ahead of the front , I can see BDL pulling off like a 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Big time heat. 00z EPS with mean highs at BDL between 60 and 65 through the end of the month, with 75th percentiles in 70 to 75 range. But if we want to stretch it the outliers at the end of the month are 90 and 45! Exactly..so with 70-75 signaled at this lead time..that is a big big heat signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Big time heat. 00z EPS with mean highs at BDL between 60 and 65 through the end of the month, with 75th percentiles in 70 to 75 range. But if we want to stretch it the outliers at the end of the month are 90 and 45! So in other words, almost dead normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Exactly..so with 70-75 signaled at this lead time..that is a big big heat signal OR alternatively, it's modeled to be a typical/above normal pattern. It's not like the EPS is factoring in climo like MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 OR alternatively, it's modeled to be a typical/above normal pattern. It's not like the EPS is factoring in climo like MOS. No man big big heat, the entire Met community is talking about it even if you aren"t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 OR alternatively, it's modeled to be a typical/above normal pattern. It's not like the EPS is factoring in climo like MOS.Quoted for posterity . I'll tell you that IMO many places hit 80 or higher in the 25-30 period in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Quoted for posterity . I'll tell you that IMO many places hit 80 or higher in the 25-30 period in the northeast Now what exactly are we talking about here? The end of the month (April 30th), or a month from now? Because an 80 by mid May is not exactly going out on a limb for BDL when the average temp is in the low 70s. The average first 80 is actually 4/28. So what exactly is a big, big heat signal? A slightly above normal high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Now what exactly are we talking about here? The end of the month (April 30th), or a month from now? Because an 80 by mid May is not exactly going out on a limb for BDL when the average temp is in the low 70s. The average first 80 is actually 4/28. So what exactly is a big, big heat signal? A slightly above normal high? The end of the month where all modeling is signaling a big warmth. The 25th- 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 The end of the month where all modeling is signaling a big warmth. The 25th- 30th You didn't answer his question...what is "big warmth"? 5 days over 80? 1 day out of 5 over 80? Just BDL, right (I assume since we're into spring, BDL is the place we use now) So vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 You didn't answer his question...what is "big warmth"? 5 days over 80? 1 day out of 5 over 80? Just BDL, right (I assume since we're into spring, BDL is the place we use now) So vague. BDL, TAN, PVD etc. all hit 80-90 at least once or twice in that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 You didn't answer his question...what is "big warmth"? 5 days over 80? 1 day out of 5 over 80? Just BDL, right (I assume since we're into spring, BDL is the place we use now) So vague. What "big warmth" is right. If anything the GEFS are slightly cooler extremes than the EPS, and slightly warmer means. This just looks like an extended stretch of normal to mild temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 this all kinda sorta goes along with that whole 'torch' thing we were talking about the other day. i liked Brian's approach ... just say a torch has to be +2 or +3 SD or greater, and if it is not, can the hyperbole... I don't think popping 70 in April, 80 in May, 90 in June/July really count as much. but that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 What "big warmth" is right. KBDL_2016041412_nx_384.png If anything the GEFS are slightly cooler extremes than the EPS, and slightly warmer means. This just looks like an extended stretch of normal to mild temps. Ok so you're taking <75 anywhere in New England during the 25th-30th right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Ok so you're taking <75 anywhere in New England during the 25th-30th right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 lol Is he reading what I'm posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 This is damn impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Is he reading what I'm posting? Obviously not...or just pretending he didn't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 What I'm saying is there is no "big warmth" signal. There is a mild pattern signaled, maybe if you stretch it. Really it's a fairly typical spring pattern modeled. A few outlier ensemble members have well above normal temps for late April, but the vast majority are in the near to just above range. If you wanted to be a Frigidaire there are a few outlier ensemble members well below normal too. Based on the EPS and GEFS, it looks like 1 out or 4 or 5 chances that we see BDL over 80 those last few days of the month. I would hardly call that a big warmth signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.