Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Conflicting signs this morning. The first week or so looks chilly, but that could be centered over the Lakes and midwest and struggle to reach the east coast. Looks like a massive cutter around April 1, with big severe outbreak for New England, and then maybe a few days of calling behind it. Gibbs says most of the cold stays to our west and there's no risk of snow with -PNA pattern. Other circles says ridging in Greenland and it screams cold in Se Canada and backdoors..which i don't think anyone here wants. Hopefully things become clearer over the coming days. Either way..after about the 10th long range stuff signaling big warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Conflicting signs this morning. The first week or so looks chilly, but that could be centered over the Lakes and midwest and struggle to reach the east coast. Looks like a massive cutter around April 1, with big severe outbreak for New England, and then maybe a few days of calling behind it. Gibbs says most of the cold stays to our west and there's no risk of snow with -PNA pattern. Other circles says ridging in Greenland and it screams cold in Se Canada and backdoors..which i don't think anyone here wants. Hopefully things become clearer over the coming days. Either way..after about the 10th long range stuff signaling big warmth. At least we have a choice regarding HOW we would like spring to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Don't know where Gibbs is getting his info on the PNA? JB in his morning video says/shows the PNA going Positive over the next week or two. So conflicting signals there from two different METS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Don't know where Gibbs is getting his info on the PNA? JB in his morning video says/shows the PNA going Positive over the next week or two. So conflicting signals there from two different METS. PNA looks like its rising but it might be neutral at best. JB thinks there might be some fun during the first week of April before we really warm up towards the end of april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 haha, it seems slowly my evil plan to get everyone to unilaterally hate march 22 - may 9 is almost complete... muah ahahhaahha. -altho, i wouldn't ever outlook a big severe event in new england some 8 days in advance - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 That seems like a pattern to really play with fire after 4/2. That cold source in Canada is sitting there to get tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 That seems like a pattern to really play with fire after 4/2. That cold source in Canada is sitting there to get tapped. Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on?Obviously it's not easy to get April snow, but step 1 is colder air nearby.....is this is usually a very big step to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2016 Author Share Posted March 25, 2016 Weeklies chilly first week Napril, but warming after that. Mid month on looks torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Do we tap the bottle and twist the cap..or do we just tap the bottle, but cap stays on? YBT,,,, DJ Kamron grew up two towns from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Man what a cold dump on the GFS with storm forming in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Man what a cold dump on the GFS with storm forming in the GOM. Went ots but wow thats some cold air for april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 heh, was about to start the April pattern thread - word... looks like a pretty clear cookie cutter pattern en route as the bevy of more dependable (and not) global operational guidance sources are hinting and/or outright fitting pretty squarely into the teleconnector modes/modalities heading into the first week of April. -- sea-saw of large scale mass fields that'll take some 7 to 10 days to play out. The hybrid PNA /EPO ridge amplifies at first along and just W of the Canadian sea coast and fitting well with that expectation heights at first plummet downwards ... smartly into the Great Basin area of the west, before this trough matures east way out in time. During those earlier phases of the total synoptic evolution ...offers some chance for yet another late season addition to seasonal snow totals at and above midland elevations of the mountains, working lower in time, .. with perhaps some sort of more organized event closer to the Front Range/Denver area. While all that is happening ... heights will likely response upward significantly in the E ... swathing a large area of seasonal warmth farther N-E into areas of the GL-OV-NE that have suffered a bit of seasonal lag as of late, with generalized above normal warming farther S.... But it will/would have a lease! The extended operationals as individuals and thus in blend ...concur with the bulging -EPO by constructing said western ridge enough to tap deep high latitude arctic air. Confidence is a bit higher than normal for this far out in time, but close to the end of the middle range and beyond, folks in the GL-OV and eventually NE regions should be aware that an intense late season cold shot may be rumbling S as the -EPO collapses into a transient +PNAP that has a ridge axis more E centered over the Rockies cordillera. That should impart a deep layer NNW flow from said tapped source ..only offset at all by climbing seasonal sun angles... but still ends the early warm party that does and probably will materialize toward the end of next week. Temps should be well below normal in that air mass for few days. For those holding out hope for snow ... as that pattern relaxes way out there...talking D10 or 12 ..ish, the return restoring may feature something. This does not include the 'ending as flakes' possibility around 108 hours... Look to perhaps the April 6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Wake me on Memorial Day. Or if there's a legit widespread 6+ opportunity. Spring has always been ugly particularly the closer one is to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10. -20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Man what a brutal cold shot that is on the GFS between Day 7-10. -20C at H85 at BOS/TAN/ORH/BDL with -18C at ACK. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for most of SNE verbatim. Up here it's showing a high of 15F and low near zero. That's a classic example of useless cold haha. Windy and frigid on April 4th. Would be a shame to waste it. Probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 I'll take the way over on those numbers if it's sunny. That's ridiculous . GFS cold bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Euro day 10 look probably would have some sort of event after day 11. I know I know.....but that would work if it's not suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 cold for a few days and back to the same old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 That cold in SE Canada looks like BDF potential though. At least up this way. Better off having more of a deeper trough in Rockies. Definitely a nice look further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 We yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 That cold in SE Canada looks like BDF potential though. At least up this way. Better off having more of a deeper trough in Rockies. Definitely a nice look further south. Yep...lots of cold lurking in SE Canada is usually a good recipe for muting our warm shots...you get these models runs that show 70F for like 4-5 days, and it ends up being a day or two...or zero. NYC and southwest roasts...or maybe even up to BDL/CEF...and the rest of us are murk....or only see brief nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 I'll take the way over on those numbers if it's sunny. That's ridiculous . GFS cold bias It is a ridiculous cold shot as modeled. There's only so much sun can do to -20C at H85 if that's what verified. If its sunny you are right it'd be way over but on the flip side the overnight lows would be colder with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 It's far out, but I suppose the 6-8 give or take is one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Anything good to add? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 interesting battle of extremes there ... with significant negative SD air mass up underneath a post Equinox sun - nice experiment chance in offsetting variables. My guess is that afternoons claw and scrape still to almost 40 despite an air mass that would hold up in the teens in January. Snow atmosphere there... and agree with Scott - tho obviously we're not talking details... but as that 2-3 day window post cold arrival tries to restore to climo ... I think has chance. Probably the last one at that - That's an impressive 2 days of out-doorsy air late Wed - Fri, too. As I said in the war and peace post above... it's really a 7 to 10 day mass field sea saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Any chance of FROPA snow when that arctic shot pushed in? Seems like the GFS may show some squalls at least. Would be nice to at least a coating on the ground with that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 A snow squall that would melt 5 minutes after it ended won't cut it. You want OTG snow in Napril sun you want man snow or 12 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Well, maybe not a coating, but at least an inch which would hang around for at least a few hours if it's cloudy and cold. My 5 inches last week hung around in the shade for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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