Spring Banter

[weathermedic]

The only type of snow event that would surprise me these days would be a repeat of the May 77 Northeast snowstorm.

 

Was 9 yrs old and remember snow mixing with the rain in Brooklyn.

[mob1]

Models are advertising HWW criteria winds for Sunday morning, I hope the storm develops a hair SW and a hair quicker, then winds will truly be impressive.

[Jason WX]

Models are advertising HWW criteria winds for Sunday morning, I hope the storm develops a hair SW and a hair quicker, then winds will truly be impressive.

any pics?

[mob1]

any pics?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2016032918/USA_GUSTM_sfc_105.gif

[snowman19]

Eps likes the 5th threat and 8th threat

EPS liked a lot of "threats" over the winter...

[Allsnow]

I heard yanksfan is now blogging for NYC metro blog that earthlight runs. They are really excited about the addition to the team

[MJO812]

GFS

[MJO812]

GGEM loses the snow lol

[Jason215]

Guys, remember we had that late October snowstorm where KNYC got 2.9 inches in 2011?This was I believe on Oct 30th. Places just north and west got between 5 -12".. West Milford NJ 19". My question to you folks is...about what date would be the spring equivalent of Oct 30th for such an anomalous snowstorm? I think if we use Feb 1st as the midpoint of the winter.. Then May 3rd would be the spring equivalent of October 30th... I'm curious what others opinion is on this.

Thanks,

-Jason

[JerseyWx]

Guys, remember we had that late October snowstorm where KNYC got 2.9 inches in 2011?This was I believe on Oct 30th. Places just north and west got between 5 -12".. West Milford NJ 19". My question to you folks is...about what date would be the spring equivalent of Oct 30th for such an anomalous snowstorm? I think if we use Feb 1st as the midpoint of the winter.. Then May 3rd would be the spring equivalent of October 30th... I'm curious what others opinion is on this.

Thanks,

-Jason

That's a really good question, and I've often thought of it myself. To be honest, I'd say it'd be the Spring equivalent of a late April snow. Maybe somewhere between the 20th and the 30th. It contradicts my previous date by a little, but I usually compare October to May, November to April, and December to March. Keep in mind, the beginning of October would be more like the end of May, and the end of October would be more like the beginning of May. Same goes for the rest of them. My reasoning is that in the Fall you're going from warmer to cooler temps, and in the Spring cooler to warmer. Now, the average temps won't align exactly, and that's just my un-scientific system I like to use. Someone else might be able to help you out a little better.

[snowman19]

GGEM loses the snow lol

So did the Euro/EPS. And the GFS you posted is depicting white rain at best

[bluewave]

Guys, remember we had that late October snowstorm where KNYC got 2.9 inches in 2011?This was I believe on Oct 30th. Places just north and west got between 5 -12".. West Milford NJ 19". My question to you folks is...about what date would be the spring equivalent of Oct 30th for such an anomalous snowstorm? I think if we use Feb 1st as the midpoint of the winter.. Then May 3rd would be the spring equivalent of October 30th... I'm curious what others opinion is on this.

Thanks,

-Jason

 

Mid to later in April since that would be the same average temperatures as the end of October.

Early May would be even more extreme than the end of October since the average daily 

temperature is closer to 60 instead of 53 near the end of October.

[MJO812]

So did the Euro/EPS. And the GFS you posted is depicting white rain at best

Yep. Still a while to go. Need it to be weaker.

[Morris]

If we don't get anything, it's most likely because of the track and not because it's April.

[donsutherland1]

Guys, remember we had that late October snowstorm where KNYC got 2.9 inches in 2011?This was I believe on Oct 30th. Places just north and west got between 5 -12".. West Milford NJ 19". My question to you folks is...about what date would be the spring equivalent of Oct 30th for such an anomalous snowstorm? I think if we use Feb 1st as the midpoint of the winter.. Then May 3rd would be the spring equivalent of October 30th... I'm curious what others opinion is on this.

Thanks,

-Jason

Based on average temperatures, mid-April.

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/DailyAvgTNormals.pdf

[masomenos]

I heard yanksfan is now blogging for NYC metro blog that earthlight runs. They are really excited about the addition to the team

Yup. Primary responsibility will be covering frontal passages and drizzle threats.

[Stormlover74]

Mid to later in April since that would be the same average temperatures as the end of October.

Early May would be even more extreme than the end of October since the average daily 

temperature is closer to 60 instead of 53 near the end of October.

Sun angle wise we're mid September now

[bluewave]

Sun angle wise we're mid September now

 

The latest accumulating snow at NYC since 1869 is 4/25/1875 when 3 inches fell. That was also the

second coldest April on record and close to our current day March average temperature. The best

that we were ever able to do in May was a trace.

[ag3]

The latest accumulating snow at NYC since 1869 is 4/25/1875 when 3 inches fell. That was also the

second coldest April on record and close to our current day March average temperature. The best

that we were ever able to do in May was a trace.

 

A couple years back (can't remember the exact year), there was a strong cold front in May that produced graupel and a couple of mangles flaked for the entire NYC metro but of course KNYC failed to report it as a T of snow.

[JerseyWx]

The latest accumulating snow at NYC since 1869 is 4/25/1875 when 3 inches fell. That was also the

second coldest April on record and close to our current day March average temperature. The best

that we were ever able to do in May was a trace.

Amazing that we even saw a trace in May.

[bluewave]

Amazing that we even saw a trace in May.

 

That was the little ice age of 1977 when the coming ice age headlines were in the news.

[snowman19]

Sun angle wise we're mid September now

In order to get any daytime accumulating snow from here on out, you would have to thump like hell, as in heavy to very heavy (convective) snows to overcome the indirect sunlight

[JerseyWx]

That was the little ice age of 1977 when the coming ice age headlines were in the news.

  

That's pretty cool, that must have been a crazy Winter and Spring.

In order to get any daytime accumulating snow from here on out, you would have to thump like hell, as in heavy to very heavy (convective) snows to overcome the indirect sunlight

Daytime will be hard yes, but if it's cold enough, and it's heavy enough it can accumulate.

[bluewave]

  

That's pretty cool, that must have been a crazy Winter and Spring.

Daytime will be hard yes, but if it's cold enough, and it's heavy enough it can accumulate.

 

TV was full of coming ice age stories. That was the last top ten coldest winter in NYC.

 

[nycwinter]

In order to get any daytime accumulating snow from here on out, you would have to thump like hell, as in heavy to very heavy (convective) snows to overcome the indirect sunlight

i disagree at this time of year even in the daytime it snows in alaska

[JerseyWx]

TV was full of coming ice age stories. That was the last top ten coldest winter in NYC.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kGB5MMIAVA

Wow, really interesting. I bet a lot of people believed it considering how bad the Winter they had that year was.

[bluewave]

Wow, really interesting. I bet a lot of people believed it considering how bad the Winter they had that year was.

 

It was the closest that I ever experienced to little ice age conditions. I wish there were satellite images

available at the time to show all the ice on the local waterways. The May northeast snowstorm was

possibly the best latest event since the early 1800's.

 

NY Times Headline..

The Last Hurrah of a Feisty Winter Brings the Latest Spring Snow Ever.

The winter of 1976-77 was an exceptionally cold one in the central and eastern U.S., during which snowflakes were seen in metro Miami

The latest spring snowstorm ever recorded in the New York metropolitan region blustered over much of the Northeast...closing schools, snarling traffic and cloaking newly plowed fields and the delicate blossoms of May in a harsh reprise of winter. 

In New York City, snow fell briefly in midmorning and in the early afternoon as a day of intermittent rain, sleet and hail passed drearily. The snow on May 9 was the latest record in any spring since record-keeping begain in 1869. The previous record for the latest spring snow was May 4 set in 1946. And that was just sleet.

May 9, 1977 -- A late season snowstorm hit parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and southern and central New England. Heavier snowfall totals included 27 inches at Slide Mountain New York and 20 inches at Norfolk, Connecticut. At Boston it was the first May snow in 107 years of records. The heavy wet snow caused extensive damage to trees and power lines. The homes of half a million people were without power following the storm. 

Snowfall Amounts included: 

Norfolk: 20" 

Hartford: 1.3" (all on 5/9) 

Worcester: 12.7" (11.4" on 5/9; 1.3" on 5/10)

Boston: 0.5" (Trace on 5/9; 0.5" on 5/10) 

New York City: Trace (all on 5/9) 

Newark: Trace (all on 5/9) 

Providence: 7.0" (6.7" on 5/9; 0.3" on 5/10) 

[Dan76]

It was the closest that I ever experienced to little ice age conditions. I wish there were satellite images

available at the time to show all the ice on the local waterways. The May northeast snowstorm was

possibly the best latest event since the early 1800's.

I have pics some where.got one of it completely frozen at the jones beach fishing piers to the meadowbrook (78?)

[bluewave]

I have pics some where.got one of it completely frozen at the jones beach fishing piers to the meadowbrook (78?)

 

I know the greatest extent was 76-77.

 

 

2.4.1.1 Freezing of Long Island Sound

There is evidence that substantial portions of Long Island Sound have frozen, significantly impacting vessel transits. Although unable to locate historical records confirming ice formation across the Sound, as part of this Report, COTP Long Island Sound surveyed commercial operators with extensive histories of operation on the Sound, to determine the extent of ice formation. From the mariner information, it is apparent that large portions of Long Island Sound have indeed frozen over sufficiently to impede vessel traffic.

In 1977, from the first week in January through the second week of February, most of Long Island Sound was frozen over. The waters at Execution Rock on the western end of the Sound were solid ice. Commercial deep draft vessel traffic was not impeded in the Sound as the shipping lanes remained open, but operation in the harbors was limited strictly to daylight. Riverhead Platform was inaccessible by tankers or barges due to the pressure created by ice pushing on vessels, making mooring exceptionally difficult and causing mooring lines to break once vessels were moored up. Lighted aids to navigation in the sound were off station or missing, and were extinguished; ice buoys replaced buoys for navigation. Ice was 2-3 feet thick in certain portions of the Sound.

During the winter of 1967-68, the Port Jefferson to Bridgeport ferry was unable to transit out of Port Jefferson Harbor due to ice that extended out past the entrance to the harbor to a thickness where a crew was able to conduct welding operations on one of the Port Jefferson ferries from the ice. Also that year, there was heavy pack ice between the Connecticut River and the Thames River, causing difficulty of passage for commercial vessels. That same winter, Gardiners Bay, Long Island, froze completely across.⁸³ During the winter of 1917 to 1918, cars were apparently driven across the Sound in the vicinity of Port Jefferson, NY.⁸⁴ 

Historic data also indicates that, during the winter of 1779-1780, "Long Island Sound was almost completely clogged with ice, and people were able to cross from Long Island to the vicinity of Stamford" Connecticut for several days, and that people were able to cross other areas of the western Sound, including from Connecticut to Lloyd’s Neck, Long Island.⁸⁵ 

[JerseyWx]

It was the closest that I ever experienced to little ice age conditions. I wish there were satellite images

available at the time to show all the ice on the local waterways. The May northeast snowstorm was

possibly the best latest event since the early 1800's.

 

NY Times Headline..

The Last Hurrah of a Feisty Winter Brings the Latest Spring Snow Ever.

The winter of 1976-77 was an exceptionally cold one in the central and eastern U.S., during which snowflakes were seen in metro Miami

The latest spring snowstorm ever recorded in the New York metropolitan region blustered over much of the Northeast...closing schools, snarling traffic and cloaking newly plowed fields and the delicate blossoms of May in a harsh reprise of winter. 

In New York City, snow fell briefly in midmorning and in the early afternoon as a day of intermittent rain, sleet and hail passed drearily. The snow on May 9 was the latest record in any spring since record-keeping begain in 1869. The previous record for the latest spring snow was May 4 set in 1946. And that was just sleet.

May 9, 1977 -- A late season snowstorm hit parts of Pennsylvania, New York State, and southern and central New England. Heavier snowfall totals included 27 inches at Slide Mountain New York and 20 inches at Norfolk, Connecticut. At Boston it was the first May snow in 107 years of records. The heavy wet snow caused extensive damage to trees and power lines. The homes of half a million people were without power following the storm. 

Snowfall Amounts included: 

Norfolk: 20" 

Hartford: 1.3" (all on 5/9) 

Worcester: 12.7" (11.4" on 5/9; 1.3" on 5/10)

Boston: 0.5" (Trace on 5/9; 0.5" on 5/10) 

New York City: Trace (all on 5/9) 

Newark: Trace (all on 5/9) 

Providence: 7.0" (6.7" on 5/9; 0.3" on 5/10)

That's insane, near 2 feet in May?