2016 Severe Storm Thread

[jaxjagman]

SPC is talking in high volume for a "Possible Outbreak" in the plains.nothing much to see here right now

 

[Runman292]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1119 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWD INTO

THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...

...SUMMARY...

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX CENTERED OVER INDIANA ATTM

WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE A

SECOND TROUGH/LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WRN STATES ADVANCES INTO

THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER

THE PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE

APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN THE W...A COLD FRONT WILL

SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE A LEE TROUGH

PERSISTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...MID OH VALLEY REGION SWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE OH VALLEY AND EWD/SWD INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST

STATES...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM. GENERALLY WEAK

LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER IN MANY

AREAS SUGGEST LIMITED CAPE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS

-- COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER

SYSTEM -- SHOULD HINDER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST RISK

FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM THE

MID OH SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...NEARER THE UPPER SYSTEM WHERE

COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A BIT

STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[jaxjagman]

Possibly something to watch, something towards the end of the month

 

Hazards already has the Valley at 20%,above avg temps

 

For Thursday April 21 - Wednesday April 27: For Week-2, the predicted 500-hPa flow pattern features broad positive height anomalies over much of the CONUS. Model guidance today depicts a much more substantial ridge building across the northern CONUS early in the period that will shift south and east through the rest of the week. This solution has become consistent among the GEFS, European, and Canadian solutions. Consideration was also given toward potential anomalous warmth over much of the Northeast given the operational GFS forecast, however teleconnection analysis of the blocking ridge across Greenland hints at anomalous troughing and potential back-door frontal influences maintaining a cooler solution here that is also supported by the GEFS.

 

probhazards_d8_14_contours.png 2200×1700 .png

 

Negative PNA during this time period being shown

 

4panel.png 1024×1024 .png

 

In East Asia there is a building area of HP being shown by next Wed., on all the models

 

2.png

 

Overlay map,what it possibly might look like just for fun

 

H5

 

Desctop screenshot.png

 

MSLP

4.png

 

Who knows right now,it's still along ways out.

 

f348.gif 1024×819 .png

 

JR's BSR site

 

The Bering Sea Rule BSR H5 Maps.png

Still seeing a possible severe threat long range.Though some differences being shown, the low that is being shown in Canada on the overlay maps is being shown getting absorbed in East Asia this is why you see HP and not LP to the N.But either way, all the models are still showing a system approaching the western Valley around next weekend

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Cips guidance also during this time frame don't look half bad.

 

[jaxjagman]

Dashboard would be a couple days before,starting in the western Valley the day before

[jaxjagman]

Nice ridge building off the SE coast ofJapan on the EPS,we could be looking at a nice Bermuda high into the 2nd week of May.It's still long range though

 

[jaxjagman]

Euro and GFS  this afternoon shows some potential for some strong storms in the Western Valley Wed.,this is where the SPC has outlined this area in a slight risk.Some timing differences after Wed and beyond.The storm mentioned above  into next weekend.The Euro has some strong LLJ at 60-70kts in the Mid Valley and decreases further east as the system lifts into the OV.If the Euro is anywhere right(who knows this far out) we would see some half way decent gust at least ,stronger with any convective cell the Central into the eastern parts of the Valley,this would be late night Sat into Sunday

[jaxjagman]

Windy,nice SREH but not much veering

 

[jaxjagman]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY PERFECT DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN
WITH CLEAR SKIES, COPIOUS SUN AND LIGHT WINDS.  WHILE WEAK...WE ARE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE PREDOMINANT
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  COMBINED WITH
UPPER RIDGING...THIS SPELLS SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN THIS SPRING...AND NO RAIN.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  IN FACT...LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...AND 80S ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IF IT`S RAIN YOU`RE LOOKING FOR...IT WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WE SEE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.  WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN FOR TUESDAY...
WITH THE FOCUS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING AND A
LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
MID-STATE. THE FORCING WILL ALL BE UPSTREAM ON TUESDAY AS A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN THE PLAINS.  THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP TO
INCREASE OUR POPS HERE AT HOME.  TAKING A LOOK AT THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...INSTABILITY WON`T BE AN ISSUE. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 60S WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROVIDE AT 1500-1750 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BY 00Z THURSDAY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR
SHOULD BE PREVALENT...ALONG WITH 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 200-350
M2/S2. THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF LIFT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE...I WILL
INTRODUCE AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOCUS WEST OF I-65. WITH THE CURRENT WIND
PROFILES AND A LITTLE CURVE IN THE 0-1KM FORECAST HODOGRAPHS I
CAN`T RULE OUT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH DECENT DRY AIR ALOFT AND 6-7 DEGREE
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK RELATIVELY DRY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
TAKES OVER FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WARM FRONT IS PART OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM.  THIS IS ONE THAT WILL BEAR CLOSE SCRUTINY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A VERY
INTENSE SYSTEM RAMPING UP FOR NEXT SUNDAY...ONE THAT IS MUCH CLOSER
TO HOME WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
NEGATIVELY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  TIMING IS
OFF BY 12 TO 18 HOURS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO...BUT THE FEATURE IS
STILL VERY PREDOMINANT.  DUE TO THE MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY...
WILL CARRY A HIGH-END CHANCE POP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

[nrgjeff]

Wednesday the Mid South is under a Slight Risk, which seems reasonable Day 3. Wind fields will be supportive of severe and moisture should return 12-24 hours ahead, a contrast to just in time moisture. Though the warm front may be up along I-70, a diffuse outflow boundary may be in West Tennessee due to Tuesday night showers in Kentucky or northwest Tennessee. If the said rain keeps going into midday then Wednesday will be rather low key. If morning rain gives way to sun then the atmosphere would become unstable and Enhance the risk on Wednesday afternoon. 

 

The Weekend looks interesting, but again conditional. Unseasonably strong west to east upper level winds are forecast in the Deep South over the weekend. Lower levels are in question. Low level wind fields are not clear at this time due to upper level timing; however, a properly timed short-wave would back the low levels. Otherwise low levels could be veered off. Multiple waves could just mean lots of scattered showers and storms. A sunny midday would destabilize. Nothing is really notable about the weekend except for upper level wind speeds. We shall see how the low levels and precipitation pan out.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THROUGH A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGIONS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
   TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM THE
   MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
   EASTERN TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NWD THROUGH THE
   PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING WRN U.S.
   TROUGH. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SRN TX. A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
   MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN/OCCLUDE WHILE THE COLD
   FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY
   REGION. 

   ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
   FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH
   ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO SRN PORTIONS
   OF THE OH VALLEY. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY
   POSE AN ONGOING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EWD DURING THE MORNING. IN WAKE OF
   MORNING STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TO
   DESTABILIZE AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ABOVE A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER. WHERE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
   BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. A PROGRESSIVE 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET WITHIN UPPER TROUGH
   BASE WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT
   AREA...BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT RISK THIS UPDATE DUE TO LINGERING
   UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF MORNING STORMS. HOWEVER...AN
   UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...SERN NEB THROUGH NRN MO...

   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF SFC LOW
   FROM SERN NEB THROUGH NRN MO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS
   FARTHER SOUTH...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
   FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 04/26/2016

[Runman292]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0230 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX INTO SRN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF TX INTO SRN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN

STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER A PORTION

OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A MORE MARGINAL RISK FOR A

FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF TEXAS

AND FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD

WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MEAN

RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT

UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE SWRN STATES. A STRONG

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND

WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW OVER

THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THEN AS A STATIONARY

FRONT OVER SERN TX 12Z THURSDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD

FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.

THE STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY OVER SRN AND SERN TX WILL LIFT NWD AS

A WARM FRONT...WHILE FARTHER NORTH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD

THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.

...NRN TX THROUGH SRN OK...

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WHEN

DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM MOIST ADVECTION ALONG STRENGTHENING

LLJ WILL OCCUR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO

MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE IN

WARM FRONTAL ZONE ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ...AUGMENTED BY THE

APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ELEVATED STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE OVER NRN TX INTO SRN OK WHERE EFFECTIVE

SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP MID-LEVEL

UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH /IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT/ WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

...OH AND TN VALLEY AREAS...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THIS

REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST AS INITIAL

ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS. A BELT OF 35-50 WINDS ALOFT WILL

PERSIST IN THIS REGION AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO

REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY. SOME OF

THE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT

RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SERN STATES...

AREAS OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS RAISES UNCERTAINTY WHERE BEST

DESTABILIZATION WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST

1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS

WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS MAY

PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO

THE EARLY EVENING.

[jaxjagman]

[nrgjeff]

The South still leads the Plains by a country mile so far in 2016. Tuesday was a Particularly Dumb Setup for tornadoes, but SPC clearly verified MDT on hail. Today the South may not add much to our lead though.

 

Gulf Coast MCS is the spoiler again. MCS moved east faster than progged, so models are struggling. Even if Arkansas can recover the MCS will cut off the LLJ. Hi-res NAM has Midsouth going this afternoon but I am skeptical since even 12Z still totally blows the MCS. The HRRR keeps the MCS alive, shutting the door farther north. SPC rightfully keeps Slight. Even the MCS is not worthy of ENH because it is heading away from dynamics.

 

Good thing; let people remember Wednesday April 27, 2011 in peace.

[jaxjagman]

Nice ridge building off the SE coast ofJapan on the EPS,we could be looking at a nice Bermuda high into the 2nd week of May.It's still long range though

 

ecmwf ens_mslpa_wpac_10.png 1024×717 .png

Maybe we'll see something after the Omega blocking.

 

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX/TX
   COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
   THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
   MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY IN
   ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. A
   COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   OZARKS/ARKLATEX AND UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
   EXTENSIVE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

   ...OZARKS/OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS/MO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE A RELATED SURFACE LOW
   WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   MO/IL/INDIANA. A RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
   WINDS WILL NONETHELESS OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR
   AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF A
   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE WARM
   FRONTAL/WARM SECTOR DETAILS ARE EFFECTIVELY COMPLICATED BY THE
   LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD
   COVER. WITH AT LEAST MODEST WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS MO/NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

   ...TX COAST/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO TN VALLEY...
   AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   /INCLUDING A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK/ WITH A DOMINANT LINEAR
   MODE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO LA AND THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD /12Z/ THIS MORNING. EVEN WHILE MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
   EXPERIENCE A RELATIVE INTENSITY LULL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...COLD
   POOL/OUTFLOW-FOCUSED REINTENSIFICATION IS VIABLE BY AFTERNOON
   ESPECIALLY WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF LA/MS AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF AL/TN. DAMAGING WINDS AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD
   THROUGH A BELT OF CONFLUENT/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN VALLEYS.

   FARTHER WEST...SUBSEQUENT LATER-DAY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/TX
   COAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE
   TENDENCY FOR NEUTRAL/SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
   LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AR/NORTHERN LA AND THE TX COAST
   PLAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED IN THIS LATER-DAY/HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SCENARIO. IF ADEQUATE
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS MATERIALIZE
   NEAR/JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING...SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NORTH GA/WESTERN CAROLINAS...
   AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF A RETREATING FRONT
   WHERE CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR...AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT.

   ..GUYER/PICCA.. 04/30/2016

[jaxjagman]

We'll see what happens,the further east you go there is some VBV.But either way the SREF is showing the best severe threat into the southern parts of the Valley,right now anyways

[Runman292]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1128 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR

PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM

PARTS OF AR/SE MO INTO SW IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER

OH AND MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE

HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND

SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER MO THIS

MORNING...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE KS/NEB

BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE

SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WARM FRONT

PROGRESSES NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES

SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MO AND SEWD ACROSS TX.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE COMPLICATED THE

SITUATION TODAY...LEAVING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FROM THE TN VALLEY

NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL SEVERE RISK

AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO

FOCUS THE SLGT RISK AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND

THE OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IS GREATER.

Essentially, they have taken the slight risk out of Tennessee and put a broad Marginal risk over everyone in the state.

[jaxjagman]

The warm front lifting looks slower to me for today than what the models have been showing.Plus like always it seems, convection on going down S of us don't help out any as well

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN / NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

   VALID 302151Z - 302245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS WITH STORMS EXHIBITING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE
   MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER NRN AL NEWD INTO SERN TN SHOWS
   SEVERAL WEAK SUPERCELLS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
   BUOYANCY /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS A
   COMPENSATING FACTOR AND LEADING TO A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SHORTER-LIVED AND GENERALLY WEAK
   UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NE
   ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AHEAD OF A DRYSLOT/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
   LOBE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
   A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
   SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

[jaxjagman]

Nice ridge building off the SE coast ofJapan on the EPS,we could be looking at a nice Bermuda high into the 2nd week of May.It's still long range though

 

ecmwf ens_mslpa_wpac_10.png 1024×717 .png

Well,we have the Bermuda high on all  models today.Now let's see what kind of storms come with it ,if any

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Not using the RAP,it's been off all day.But aviation is showing the CF stalling out in the western Valley

 

.

I couldn't find no disco in the east other than OHX.Latest SPC don't like us right now

 

 

FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL APPROACH MID TN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY...AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WE CAN EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW GREATER HEATING...AND GREATER INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

[Runman292]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN RHEA COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

NORTHEASTERN MEIGS COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

ROANE COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN LOUDON COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 318 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF

ROCKWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE

TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

KINGSTON...ROCKWOOD...LOUDON...SPRING CITY...MIDTOWN...FAIRVIEW...

HARRIMAN...PHILADELPHIA...PEAKLAND...GRANDVIEW...PAINT ROCK...EAGLE

FURNACE AND TEN MILE.

[Runman292]

I heard on the radio that there was a confirmed report of ping pong ball size hail in Roane County.

[Runman292]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

NORTHWESTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 424 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FARRAGUT...OR

NEAR LENOIR CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT

WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

KNOXVILLE...ALCOA...LOUISVILLE...ROCKFORD...BEARDEN...LAKE FOREST...

KIMBERLIN HEIGHTS...SEYMOUR AND MASCOT.

[Mr Bob]

Knoxnews twitter feed posted a nice pic of nice marble sized hail in Farragut...

[Runman292]

Knoxnews twitter feed posted a nice pic of nice marble sized hail in Farragut...

I saw this on the news yesterday. I believe it was ping pong ball size.

[Stovepipe]

I saw this on the news yesterday. I believe it was ping pong ball size.

 

Wow!  I was on the south/east side of that cell and got smaller chunks.  Still hate friggin hail.

 

[Mr Bob]

I saw this on the news yesterday. I believe it was ping pong ball size.

Dang...that is impressive!