2016 Severe Storm Thread

[jaxjagman]

Post away

[Runman292]

Think it's time to start a thread.The models have been hinting at a severe threat the past few days.The Euro is further south today along with the EPS.Timing differences like normal between the Euro and GFS but i'm sticking with the slower Euro here,this map from the WPC looks more euroish this afternoon as the GFS is further north.Either way,both models have good wind shear with some decent hodos from the occluded system this afternoon.

WPC Day 4 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts.png

Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SUBSEQUENT TO WEDNESDAYS SEVERE RISK /REFERENCE DAY 3 OUTLOOK/...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 4/THURSDAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
   EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD
   FRONT...WITH THE SLOWER 00Z EURO EXHIBITING GREATER RUN-TO-RUN
   CONSISTENCY AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER 00Z GFS AND RELATED GEFS
   ENSEMBLES. WHILE THERE IS SOME SPATIAL/TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CURRENT
   THINKING IS THE MOST FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF STRONG
   FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE/WEAK BUOYANCY WILL EXIST
   ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL INTO TN/GA. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   RISK GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.

   THEREAFTER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH
   WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES BY
   AROUND DAYS 6-7 SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THAT SAID...AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT
   OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   JUNCTURE.

[jaxjagman]

[Runman292]

Storm Prediction Center Mar 21 2016 Day 4 8 Severe Weather Outlook.png

With the timing uncertainties the SPC mentions, I wouldn't be surprised to see this area expand.

[Carvers Gap]

Think we need a short range severe thread...Otherwise, we are going to have a massive number of severe threads - most of which thankfully do not deliver. We could keep multiple events in that thread. When a truly significant event is on the hoizon, start a new thread for that. We already have a thread for next winter!

[nrgjeff]

For continuity perhaps just change the title of this thread to short-range severe. Glad the NCAA Tournament offers entertainment because I am not looking for major severe weather later this week.

 

Euro is stronger than the GFS. Canadian and extended NAM split the difference. GFS is probably too progressive in the northern stream. Euro puts chips down on a stronger southern stream short-wave. Regardless moisture will be an issue. Gulf is scoured with the front buried all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Return flow will start Wednesday but moisture will be slower than progged.

 

Maybe we will see some gusty winds. Temperature profiles might promote isolated hail. Forecast veer-back-veer reduces tornado risk. Perhaps on Thursday it is Enhanced. No road to Moderate in my opinion. I do see a road to the Final Four this weekend though. 

[Runman292]

Here's MRX'S AFD talking some about the upcoming system.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A

UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE OHIO

VALLEY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND RAIN

CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD

FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME

LIMITING FACTORS...THERE IS ENOUGH PROGGED ML CAPE AND WIND SHEAR TO

WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT

WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE EASTERN

TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN 21-03Z LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN

THREATS WITH THESE STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL

BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

[Runman292]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0230 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP

SOUTH...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO

THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON

THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP

SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS

IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A RELATED COLD

FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY AND THE

DEEP SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AMPLIFY/DIG

SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN

REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY TO OH VALLEY...

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS IT

OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD

OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE

MODEST OVERALL...BUT THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD

OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL INTO TN/GA

COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE

THE MAIN RISK GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.

WHILE THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT LIMITED/ IS

UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER

STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

[jaxjagman]

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/03/22/april-2016-tornado-outlook/

[jaxjagman]

For Sunday.Euro shifted the trough much further east today than yesterday,similar to the GFS.Where we  were seeing DP's in the 40's, now looking at the 60's,with much better 0-1km shear.

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WITH LITTLE OR NO SEVERE RISK EXPECTED FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...THE FOCUS
   TURNS TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND CROSS THE
   SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
   ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE
   PRIOR TROUGH...WHICH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CONUS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
   AS EARLY AS DAY 5/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A
   GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHOULD COME INTO DAY 6/SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND POSSIBLY THE TN VALLEY. AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT
   OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   JUNCTURE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF OFFERING A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
   TROUGH-RELATED SOLUTION LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
   COMPARED TO THE FASTER 00Z GFS/CMC DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND GEFS.

   ..GUYER.. 03/22/2016

[jdrenken]

Look for a "correction" to the NW.

 

 

[monsoonman1]

Wonder if the 18z 4km NAM is a fluke for AL and GA. Kinda hope so.

[Runman292]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP

SOUTH/TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF

COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS

PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY

WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THURSDAY

NIGHT. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN

RIVER VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO

AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN

INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY INTO KY...

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS IT

OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHT FALLS/VERY

STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS

/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S F TN

VALLEY/ AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS

THAT MOST CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE

COLD FRONT/EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF MS INTO

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...ALTHOUGH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE-ADEQUATE

DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AL NORTHWARD INTO

MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND KY. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD

EVOLVE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE PARTICULARLY

WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT /CENTERED ACROSS AL AND FAR EASTERN MS/ WHERE

SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKER OVERALL FORCING IS EXPECTED

COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME

SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

The Slight risk has expanded North and East a little bit. Knoxville is just outside of the Slight risk.

[Runman292]

I was watching the local 8 news weather forecast recently, and I noticed on their Futurecast that folks in East Tennessee could see 2 lines of storms move through tomorrow. One in the late afternoon/early evening hours, and another one overnight.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
   AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF
   COAST STATES OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

   ...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED ON
   THURSDAY...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
   AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
   COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. A
   BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE NRN PART OF THE LINE MAY REMAIN INTACT
   INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
   MID MS VALLEY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY...THE LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM WRN TN SWD INTO CNTRL MS AND MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/THU FROM TUPELO NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN SHOW
   MLCAPE OF 100O TO 1500 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM
   AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
   FROM 55 TO 65 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 300 TO
   400 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WITH CELLS ALONG THE MORE ORGANIZED
   PARTS OF THE LINE AND WHERE GAPS DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINE. SUPERCELLS
   WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE
   THE MOST. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND
   DAMAGE WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   THE NRN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW...A FAST-MOVING
   COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AS
   SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50 TO 60
   KT ALONG WITH 40 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY SUGGESTING
   ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/23/2016

[nrgjeff]

I infer an ENH will come out Thursday morning. Wording is fairly strong for a 15% Slight, but maybe he is just laying out all the data. Shear and some CAPE will be there, but so will a lot of junk rain.

 

Yes two lines of showers and thunderstorms are forecast. First line is in the morning or early afternoon, depending on your location. Atmosphere looks a bit stable esp with that diurnal timing. West will still be cool in the morning and east may be slow to warm up under clouds. To me it does not look like a favored prefrontal line. 

 

Second line of storms is forecast to develop in Middle Tennessee and Alabama mid-afternoon Thursday. Asking a lot for some clearing and destabilization between lines, talk about threading the needle. First line may leave outflow to work with but I still see the earlier rain as more of an impediment than a help overall. I am not too concerned about tornadoes attm. Maybe isolated wind and hail.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE EVOLUTION OF
   BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE...AS ANOTHER COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
   PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
   ONE FAIRLY VIGOROUS IMPULSE IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING
   INLAND...AND FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
   DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
   SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE IN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
   DISTINCT WAVES.  IT APPEARS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED OR DEFORMED
   REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LESS
   PROMINENT IMPULSE TO ITS SOUTH PIVOTS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK
   PLATEAU THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
   INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT
   TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
   APPALACHIANS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR OF THE LOW...A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY
   ELONGATE WHILE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT
   LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO THE MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD BY LATE TONIGHT.  30-40 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY EXTEND AS FAR
   SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE
   IMMEDIATE GULF COAST MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.  THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...HIGHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITHIN A NARROWING CORRIDOR
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS...MAY ONLY REACH THE
   LOWER 60S INLAND OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND
   MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.

   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF
   THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  ANY SUBSEQUENT WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO YIELD
   APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIMITED /OR AT
   LEAST REMAINS UNCLEAR/...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ACROSS AND
   NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MID-LEVEL DRYING COULD
   SPREAD EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN TIME TO ALLOW FOR
   WEAK TO MODEST LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  THIS
   WOULD INCLUDE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO SPREAD EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION ...BEFORE
   DIMINISHING IN WEAKER OR WANING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/COHEN.. 03/24/2016

[Runman292]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF

MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK

AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

REGION...

...SUMMARY...

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...

WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE EVOLUTION OF

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE...AS ANOTHER COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES

PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

ONE FAIRLY VIGOROUS IMPULSE IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING

INLAND...AND FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN

HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT

DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ARE EXPECTED TO

SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE IN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF

DISTINCT WAVES. IT APPEARS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED OR DEFORMED

REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER

MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LESS

PROMINENT IMPULSE TO ITS SOUTH PIVOTS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK

PLATEAU THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION

INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT

TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE

APPALACHIANS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR OF THE LOW...A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY

ELONGATE WHILE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT

LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO THE MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC

SEABOARD BY LATE TONIGHT. 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY EXTEND AS FAR

SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE

IMMEDIATE GULF COAST MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THROUGH EARLY

EVENING...HIGHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITHIN A NARROWING CORRIDOR

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS...MAY ONLY REACH THE

LOWER 60S INLAND OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND

MID/UPPER 50S NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ABOVE THE

BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO

CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF

THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ANY SUBSEQUENT WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY FOR SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO YIELD

APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIMITED /OR AT

LEAST REMAINS UNCLEAR/...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR

ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ACROSS AND

NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MID-LEVEL DRYING COULD

SPREAD EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN TIME TO ALLOW FOR

WEAK TO MODEST LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS

PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IF THIS

OCCURS...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE

COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY

STRONG SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THIS

WOULD INCLUDE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A

COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO SPREAD EAST

NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION ...BEFORE

DIMINISHING IN WEAKER OR WANING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 03/24/2016

Most of the state (except the Tri-Cities) has at least a Marginal risk for Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms. I don't anticipate a watch being issued in East Tennessee, as the Severe threat will likely be isolated. Middle Tennessee could get one though.

[Runman292]

Here is MRX's AFD for today and tonight:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE

WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE

REGION. AN 850MB JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS

THE MRX CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY

WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. AT THIS POINT... BELIEVE WINDS WILL

REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE STRONG WIND

FIELD MOVES IN. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND

MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE A

RELATIVELY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND

CAPE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WITH THE STRONG 850MB JET MOVING

THROUGH...SHOULD SEE GOOD SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG...DAMAGING

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION

LATE EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY

SUNRISE.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DAY 4/SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON
   SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 4-5. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...SOME TIMING/PHASING
   DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
   /SLOWER/ CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT GREATER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS
   COMPARED TO FASTER 00Z GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
   HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHILE
   AMPLE FORCING/STRONG WIND FIELD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SEVERE RISK
   ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4.

   AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
   SOUTH AS FL. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES
   A GRAPHICAL RISK DELINEATION...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

   THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
   WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
   MIDWEST AROUND DAYS 7-8 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

[LithiaWx]

Looks like a low end severe threat for west GA. I'll take it. Also looks like a QL event which should limit the tornado threat but increase the winds threat. Thoughts?

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF CST
   STATES/TN VLY......

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID WEST/LWR
   OH VLY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST NNE
   INTO LWR MI AND THE UPR OH VLY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
   OCCUR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO
   DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS. THE TROUGH SHOULD
   REACH WRN LWR MI THIS EVE AND THE LWR LKS EARLY FRI...LEAVING LOW-
   AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S.

   SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO THE MO SYSTEM...NOW OVER NRN IL...SHOULD REACH
   THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...BEFORE
   CONTINUING ENE TO FAR ERN ONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SSW FROM THE LOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF THE OH RVR...WHILE OUTFLOW FROM PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION SERVES AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LOW-LVL ASCENT FARTHER S.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES AND TN VLY TODAY INTO TNGT...
   BKN...PRE-FRONTAL...OVERNGT SQLN OVER E TX AND AR HAS LARGELY
   DISSIPATED OVER MS AND LA. E OF THE WEAKENING LINE...A SEPARATE BAND
   OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE
   TRIGGERED BY THE ORIGINAL STORMS...ATTM EXTENDS NNEWD FROM SE LA
   INTO W CNTRL AL.

   DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE GULF CST STATES/TN VLY
   WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS MO UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD.
   NEVERTHELESS...WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN AMPLE FOR
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL MS/AL NNEWD INTO
   MIDDLE AND ERN TN...ALONG LINGERING AXIS OF ENHANCED /50+ KT/
   850-700 MB SWLY FLOW. CURRENT SFC AND PW ANALYSES CONTINUE INDICATE
   THAT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE BUOYANCY. WHILE MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   OCCUR TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY PW REMAINING
   AOB ABOUT 1.25 INCHES IN THE TN VLY AND BY COMPARATIVELY WEAK
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES FARTHER S.

   WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SVR WEATHER MAY REMAIN RATHER SCTD...A
   CONDITIONAL RISK WILL PERSIST INTO TNGT FOR POCKETS/CORRIDORS OF
   STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND
   TORNADOES. THIS RISK MAY BE GREATEST FROM S CNTRL MS NEWD THROUGH
   WRN...CNTRL...AND NRN AL INTO SRN AS SFC HEATING REJUVENATES
   LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. 

   FARTHER S..SOME SVR THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   BUT WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK AS WELL...WILL EXIST THIS AFTN WITH
   GRAVITY WAVE STORM BAND FROM SE LA NEWD INTO CNTRL AL.  SOMEWHAT
   GREATER PW /AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE SRN HALF OF
   THIS CORRIDOR AMID GRADUALLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW. MORE
   LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NE AL/ERN TN SHOULD
   HAVE A DELETERIOUS IMPACT ON UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY THERE.

   ...OH VLY/MIDWEST TODAY... 
   A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME DEGREE OF
   MID-LVL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD MIDWESTERN COLD FRONT AS IT
   CONTINUES ENE FROM ERN IL INTO IND AND SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY.
   ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...MODEST LOW-LVL
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT. CURRENT AND
   FCST SOUNDING SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES...SUGGESTING THAT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS. BUT 60-70 KT SSWLY 700-500 MB FLOW AND 500 MB TEMPS
   DECREASING TO AROUND MINUS 17C MAY FOSTER A CONDITIONAL CORRIDOR OF
   REGIONALLY ENHANCED SVR THREAT /WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BRIEF
   TORNADO/. NWD EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY
   PERSISTENT/SHALLOW POLAR AIR IN LWR MI.

[Runman292]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF CST

STATES/TN VLY......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID WEST/LWR

OH VLY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST NNE

INTO LWR MI AND THE UPR OH VLY...

...SUMMARY...

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST

INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY

OCCUR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...

MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO

DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS. THE TROUGH SHOULD

REACH WRN LWR MI THIS EVE AND THE LWR LKS EARLY FRI...LEAVING LOW-

AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S.

SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO THE MO SYSTEM...NOW OVER NRN IL...SHOULD REACH

THE DETROIT AREA THIS EVE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...BEFORE

CONTINUING ENE TO FAR ERN ONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT

TRAILING SSW FROM THE LOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL

TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF THE OH RVR...WHILE OUTFLOW FROM PRE-FRONTAL

CONVECTION SERVES AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LOW-LVL ASCENT FARTHER S.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES AND TN VLY TODAY INTO TNGT...

BKN...PRE-FRONTAL...OVERNGT SQLN OVER E TX AND AR HAS LARGELY

DISSIPATED OVER MS AND LA. E OF THE WEAKENING LINE...A SEPARATE BAND

OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE

TRIGGERED BY THE ORIGINAL STORMS...ATTM EXTENDS NNEWD FROM SE LA

INTO W CNTRL AL.

DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE GULF CST STATES/TN VLY

WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS MO UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD.

NEVERTHELESS...WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN AMPLE FOR

ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL MS/AL NNEWD INTO

MIDDLE AND ERN TN...ALONG LINGERING AXIS OF ENHANCED /50+ KT/

850-700 MB SWLY FLOW. CURRENT SFC AND PW ANALYSES CONTINUE INDICATE

THAT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL

CONTINUE TO BE BUOYANCY. WHILE MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL

OCCUR TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY PW REMAINING

AOB ABOUT 1.25 INCHES IN THE TN VLY AND BY COMPARATIVELY WEAK

MID-LVL LAPSE RATES FARTHER S.

WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SVR WEATHER MAY REMAIN RATHER SCTD...A

CONDITIONAL RISK WILL PERSIST INTO TNGT FOR POCKETS/CORRIDORS OF

STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND

TORNADOES. THIS RISK MAY BE GREATEST FROM S CNTRL MS NEWD THROUGH

WRN...CNTRL...AND NRN AL INTO SRN AS SFC HEATING REJUVENATES

LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND.

FARTHER S..SOME SVR THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND

BUT WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK AS WELL...WILL EXIST THIS AFTN WITH

GRAVITY WAVE STORM BAND FROM SE LA NEWD INTO CNTRL AL. SOMEWHAT

GREATER PW /AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE SRN HALF OF

THIS CORRIDOR AMID GRADUALLY VEERING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW. MORE

LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NE AL/ERN TN SHOULD

HAVE A DELETERIOUS IMPACT ON UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY THERE.

...OH VLY/MIDWEST TODAY...

A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME DEGREE OF

MID-LVL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD MIDWESTERN COLD FRONT AS IT

CONTINUES ENE FROM ERN IL INTO IND AND SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY.

ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...MODEST LOW-LVL

DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT. CURRENT AND

FCST SOUNDING SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND

PROFILES...SUGGESTING THAT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR

SUPERCELLS. BUT 60-70 KT SSWLY 700-500 MB FLOW AND 500 MB TEMPS

DECREASING TO AROUND MINUS 17C MAY FOSTER A CONDITIONAL CORRIDOR OF

REGIONALLY ENHANCED SVR THREAT /WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BRIEF

TORNADO/. NWD EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY

PERSISTENT/SHALLOW POLAR AIR IN LWR MI.

The bolded confirms my thinking that the chances of seeing a watch issued in the Eastern Valley is slim to none.

[John1122]

I'm not even sure it'll thunder with this line passing by.It looks like all current lightning strikes are south of Tennessee and are mostly confined to the Gulf Coast areas.

[Runman292]

I'm not even sure it'll thunder with this line passing by.It looks like all current lightning strikes are south of Tennessee and are mostly confined to the Gulf Coast areas.

77 degrees in Knoxville, but the dew point is in the 40s. That isn't a lot of moisture.

[nrgjeff]

Yup throw in the towel today. It is too stable. Of course it is cool across Middle Tennessee and North Alabama to about Chattanooga. In warmer locales with sunshine and 70s (must be nice East Tenn) the dewpoints are too low. Initial rain will crush air temps. Tennessee will not see the instability with the main line behind. Maybe North Alabama pulls out a benign shelfie. Otherwise the Gulf Coast MCS pretty much slams the door shut.

[Runman292]

Yup throw in the towel today. It is too stable. Of course it is cool across Middle Tennessee and North Alabama to about Chattanooga. In warmer locales with sunshine and 70s (must be nice East Tenn) the dewpoints are too low. Initial rain will crush air temps. Tennessee will not see the instability with the main line behind. Maybe North Alabama pulls out a benign shelfie. Otherwise the Gulf Coast MCS pretty much slams the door shut.

Looks like the SPC is in agreement now.

[jaxjagman]

This isn't a forecast.

 

But i was looking ahead towards into April.Back in the last Super Nino 98", the trimonthlies for DJF were @ 2.1,the Nino of 2016 is @ 2.2,same period.During this time in April of 1998 we had the super outbreak on the 16th of April.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=forgottenf5

 

 

Starting into April the the Valley can be as hostile as the Southern Plains for STP'S

 

 

The CFS dashboard 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MS THROUGH A PORTION
   OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO
   A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
   TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH PRIMARY FEATURE
   OF INTEREST BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
   TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
   TOWARD A BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING BOTH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
   THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SFC AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...WHILE
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND
   SERN STATES. A WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE NWD
   INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

   ...NRN MS THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS...

   RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTH OF WARM FRONT
   ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
   REMAINS A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
   NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F WILL ADVECT INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH
   LOW TO MID 50S FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY BENEATH COLD AIR
   ALOFT AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE PROCESSES AND AT
   LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 400-800 J/KG
   MLCAPE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH ONLY WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
   EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE
   DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   TROUGH...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO DEVELOP
   SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

   ...GULF COAST AREAS...

   AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE
   GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THE EARLY
   CONVECTION SHOULD DELAY NWD PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND. STORMS MAY
   INITIALLY BE ELEVATED...BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS
   WILL EXIST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   UPDRAFT ROTATION WHERE VEERING PROFILES AND SHEAR IN THE 0-2 KM
   LAYER WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR WARM FRONT...AND A MARGINAL RISK WILL
   EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. GIVEN THE EARLY ONSET OF WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SFC-BASED
   INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL RISK THIS OUTLOOK BUT CONTINUE
   TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..DIAL.. 03/26/2016