Jim Martin Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Severe weather possible one more time at midweek across the Southern Plains up into Missouri. 12z sounding for Wednesday Afternoon down in Southeast Oklahoma. 12z Sounding near Dallas/Fort Worth for Wednesday evening. It would seems like things are suggesting that large damaging hail could be an issue once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I can definitely see some large hail. The tornado threat will likely be very small due to a nasty veer-back that the models agree on between 850 and 700mb. I don't see any point in chasing eastern OK and west AR tomorrow. Too bad of a road network for not good enough storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231807Z - 232030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING THE 20-21Z PERIOD. THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA. 17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A WARM/MOIST SECTOR FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN THE CAPPING INVERSION. ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND 21Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 A couple of cells in far SW IA already look to show some rotation. They aren't severe warned yet, but I'd imagine that's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 First cell is building near Thackerville, OK on the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Dryline is ripping open now and further cell development will occur. New cells firing SSW of Abilene now as well. Thread title date is incorrect but can cover this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 TDS with debris getting lofted >10k ft SW of Fayetteville in NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Yesterday's brush fire was more impressive than the severe storms. The fire on the ks/ok border apparently burned 110 square miles! The smoke on vis trailed ne to Nebraska. Two of my friends were chasing near the triple point and caught a beautiful orangey sunset. The sky had a very smokey appearance. We managed to get some convection and quarter sized hail with the cells that popped up from Ardmore to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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