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3/20-21/2016 Snowfall Obs Thread


Rtd208

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What the radar looks like now and what it may look like in a few hours could differ. It's a little soon to be sure, but it appears that an area of precipitation is consolidating in southeast New Jersey. We'll probably know in an hour or so whether it may hold together and expand.

 

That area of precipitation will likely pass across Nassau and Suffolk Counties later tonight. 

 

Radar03202016_1.jpg
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Per NE forum, the radar looks west of guidance

 

 

if that wasn't evident by now then i dunno whats is bud,iv'e been saying this for some hours already lol..and the radar might only get better looking for us later on.that energy hits the water and it might be interesting to say the least.

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Guest Pamela

At 1z (9 PM) the center of low pressure had deepened to about 1004 mb and looked to be due east of Salisbury, MD and due south of Montauk...

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NAM looks great for LI, 0.3+ for all of Nassau, 0.4+ for all of suffolk, with most 0.5+

City is around 0.2, sharp cutoff to the west.

Still crazy could get 5 inches here or an inch

Congrats pal. Take some pics. Spring snow Paste can make for some great shots

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I would says ground temps so far are playing a bit into accumulation. We had decent rates here about an hour ago and the wooden border around my garden had a solid coating. Now with lower rates, that coating has all melted.

I said ground temps were going to be a problem yesterday and I got bashed and laughed at..lol

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Fellas, our snow hasn't even begun yet. This first batch lowered the temps to 32-34. Next batch will move in and accumulate.

What, you expect 4 inches already?

Its like some have never tracked a storm before

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I said ground temps were going to be a problem yesterday and I got bashed and laughed at..lol

I saw the discussion about it going on yesterday. So wanted to post the observation. Not sying the storm is a fail or a win, just posting an observation from the last hour.

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Upton may lower totals at solve point if nothing high res models don't show better..

-- Changed Discussion --

A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND

OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE

LOW DEPARTS. A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. A

COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK

AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT

WEEKEND.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

LATEST HRRR/RAP WOULD INDICATE SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP AMOUNTS

OVERNIGHT...WITH EXTREME EASTERN ZONES (IN THE WARNING AREA)

RECEIVING HIGHER QPF OF AROUND .6 TO .8 INCHES LIQUID EQUIV...WITH

.20 AROUND KISP AND VERY LITTLE IN NYC METRO.

HRRR WOULD INDICATE ANY HEAVIER BANDS REMAIN OFFSHORE...EXCEPT

PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT KMTP AND KGON AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR CAUSES SOME CONCERN...FOR

POSSIBLY LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE TROUGH GETTING

SHEARED A BIT...AND BROKEN NATURE OF RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM.

HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES LATE THIS EVENING AS FEEL

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE FINE WHERE THEY ARE. WESTERN PORTIONS

OF THE ADVISORY AREA SUCH AS NEW HAVEN CT AND NASSAU COUNTY NY

COULD FALL SHORT OF THE 3 INCH AVERAGE SNOWFALL TOTALS NEEDED FOR

ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REALIZED IF NEWER HIGH RES MODELS ARE

CORRECT. STAY TUNED.

TEMPS LOWERING AND WILL FOLLOW LATEST HOURLY GUIDANCE...WITH

LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S-AROUND 30...EXCEPT AROUND FREEZING

IN NYC.

PRECIP ENDS MONDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. WINDS INCREASE

FROM THE W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...A BLEND OF ECS/MET/6Z MAV GUIDANCE...NAM

2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800-775 HPA PER BUFKIT

SOUNDINGS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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