MJO812 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro, NAM and GFS continue to advertise winds gusting 50-60 MPH early Sunday morning (even well inland) as well as a steep temperature drop. Euro and GFS also went south with the shortwave for Sunday. Maybe some snow squalls to go with that and crashing temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro and GFS also went south with the shortwave for Sunday. Maybe some snow squalls to go with that and crashing temps?More than likely over New England. There will be an impressive tropopause fold over them Sunday morning. They may see some heavy convective snow squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 upton barking for high winds Sun AM. Maybe High wind warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 upton barking for high winds Sun AM. Maybe High wind warningsI'm pretty confident we'll see HWW's pretty much region wide, although just north of you seems to be about the cut off for the higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 upton barking for high winds Sun AM. Maybe High wind warnings I can definitely see it right at the coast. CAA events have a reputation for over performing. I could even see scattered damage. This could be our strongest wind event out of that direction in years. If leaves were out yet wow. I could see magnolia trees which have those huge flowers taking a hit they are in full bloom in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I can definitely see it right at the coast. CAA events have a reputation for over performing. I could even see scattered damage. This could be our strongest wind event out of that direction in years. If leaves were out yet wow. I could see magnolia trees which have those huge flowers taking a hit they are in full bloom in the cityThe shortwave on Sunday has trended south the past 24 hours, and that puts the best winds to our southwest then south, we need it a little north to be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 The shortwave on Sunday has trended south the past 24 hours, and that puts the best winds to our southwest then south, we need it a little north to be in the sweet spot. Yeah, the core of the LLJ max brushes the South Shore of Long Island since the low has trended a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro still has squalls in our area on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah, the core of the LLJ max brushes the South Shore of Long Island since the low has trended a little more south. gfsNE_925_spd_069.gif NW trend allllll winter And we are talking about CAA which I and I'm sure you have seen really over produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 NW trend allllll winter And we are talking about CAA which I and I'm sure you have seen really over produce. The mixed layer is really deep so whatever LLJ is over us will have no problem mixing down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NW trend allllll winter Not with the last 2 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 The mixed layer is really deep so whatever LLJ is over us will have no problem mixing down to the surface. SND.gif Which is why it's a shame the models shifted South, the Euro is very far south relative to what models showed just yesterday.Edit, the NAM came in with some impressive gusts for coastal locations http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016033118&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wow the NAM looks impressive for NE it isn't too far off for our area unless I'm looking at it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wow the NAM looks impressive for NE it isn't too far off for our area unless I'm looking at it wrong Need it further south for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Need it further south for our areaYep, all the jet energy, instability, upper level divergence and lifting dynamics are north of the area, over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 GGEM, GFS, and Nam all give my area and north a couple inches, could be my biggest snowstorm of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 best winds look SW of the low, so if that passes to a given location's N and E then you might get the winds vs the squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Both Mt.Holly & Upton have issued High Wind Watches for the area Saturday night into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 Which is why it's a shame the models shifted South, the Euro is very far south relative to what models showed just yesterday. Edit, the NAM came in with some impressive gusts for coastal locations http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016033118&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=066 The 0z Euro came a little further north so it drags a 50-60 KT LLJ right across the area early Sunday. A track like that would result in one of the more significant CAA mix down high wind events here in recent years. All of that LLJ would be able to reach the surface in gusts since the mixing layer is so deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The 0z Euro came a little further north so it drags a 50-60 KT LLJ right across the area early Sunday. A track like that would result in one of the more significant CAA mix down high wind events here in recent years. All of that LLJ would be able to reach the surface in gusts since the mixing layer is so deep. Hearing the NAM is impressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Hearing the NAM is impressive too.It initially has the higher winds in the Mid Atlantic region to southern NJ, but it then moves the higher winds northward,and is especially good for coastal locations. It still has pretty good winds for NNJ, but if that low is a little north of what the NAM is depicting, we'll all be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 From NWS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 From NWS: There we go. I'm still expecting CAA over preforms at the coast. There could be gusts pushing 70. Definitely our strongest high wind threat from that direction since maybe Boxing Day. Since it's not our usual high wind direction (east and north east) so there could be some decent damage potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 Hearing the NAM is impressive too. The 12z actually strengthens the LLJ from 12-15Z on Sunday and expands it NE across area as the low rapidly deepens. It has widespread 50KT gusts and the potential for 60KT gusts as the LLJ sweeps across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Nam 4K and rgem 12z look pretty good for at least an inch of snow for the area for Sunday mostly white rain imo Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 71 at EWR and 55 at JFK at noon. Love that southerly wind off the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 One of the lowest -EPO readings on record a few days ago for this time of year. This was also the first -360 reading any time of year since right before Sandy with January 2014 coming close. 2016 03 30 -360.46 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 3/14/58...-355.22 3/25/96...-393.86 3/25/79...-359.44 3/28/54...-355.36 4/15/65...-406.89 Recent -360 or lower readings 2012 10 08 -365.66 2014 01 25 -359.74..close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Some activity out in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Some activity out in PA Def gonna build some more instability out there in the next couple of hours. I've seen performance in worse set-ups so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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