Snowshack Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Pretty impressive that the 4/6/82 snowfall was able to stick around for five days...especially at central park. 06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3 07........30....21.......0......0.......9 08........43....25.......0......0.......6 09........39....34.......T......T.......3 10........53....34.......0......0.......2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 IMO, even as the cold shot will likely be fairly sharp--probably the coldest since April 1997 in NYC, the pattern will probably shift fairly soon afterward. My guess is that April will probably wind up on the warm side of normal despite the cold shot (60% probability in my thinking right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 IMO, even as the cold shot will likely be fairly sharp--probably the coldest since April 1997 in NYC, the pattern will probably shift fairly soon afterward. My guess is that April will probably wind up on the warm side of normal despite the cold shot (60% probability in my thinking right now). I'm with you. I'm going +1 to +2 as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 1 or 2 above normal is the norm for our current climate, it does'nt take a genius to see that. With almost every month above the 1981-2010 averages, it's becoming clear that they are not really normal temps for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 These sharp cold shots since last April, including the February record event, have only been able to last 5 to 7 days before temps moderated. My guess is that there is so little cold air available in the Northern Hemisphere that the temps quickly rebound once the extreme blocking event fades. It looks like we will be the only area of the Northern Hemisphere to see below normal temperatures in a sea of record warmth. gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_47.png and that warmth will flood back in here once the cold shot fades.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Just for clarity, the anomalie map is showing +3-4 north of Barrow, AK; the average temp in Februay north of Barrow is -10 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Just for clarity, the anomalie map is showing +3-4 north of Barrow, AK; the average temp in Februay north of Barrow is -10 correct? This graph shows it well https://weatherspark.com/averages/32906/Barrow-Alaska-United-States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Right, so according to the graph the average splits are -9/-21. The anomalie maps are +3-4 from that baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Pretty impressive that the 4/6/82 snowfall was able to stick around for five days...especially at central park. 06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3 07........30....21.......0......0.......9 08........43....25.......0......0.......6 09........39....34.......T......T.......3 10........53....34.......0......0.......2 Remember years heading into Super Niños tend to have late snowstorms. April 1982 and April Fools Day 1997 were prime examples. The only real exceptions I can think of are Easter Sunday 1970, which featured a nice snowstorm (at least 20 miles north of Central Park) heading from a Niño into a moderate Niña, and April 2003 where we were heading from a moderate Niño into a weak Niñp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Euro has the same event but further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 These sharp cold shots since last April, including the February record event, have only been able to last 5 to 7 days before temps moderated. My guess is that there is so little cold air available in the Northern Hemisphere that the temps quickly rebound once the extreme blocking event fades. It looks like we will be the only area of the Northern Hemisphere to see below normal temperatures in a sea of record warmth. gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_47.png I agree. I think the absence of large pools of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere has played a role when it comes to the shorter-term duration of cold patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I agree. I think the absence of large pools of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere has played a role when it comes to the shorter-term duration of cold patterns.Warmth has won every month since April of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Warmth has won every month since April of 2015 If you look at april 2015 to march 2016 it has averaged about 3 above the 1981-2010 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah, NYC experienced the warmest April through February on record. The average temperature was normal for just south of Richmond, VA. Screen shot 2016-03-28 at 3.22.01 PM.png It's been a furnace since the end of last March minus a few very brief cross-polar flow episodes. There has just been an unwillingness to get sustained bitter arctic air on our side of the pole into Canada and Alaska since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's been a furnace since the end of last March minus a few very brief cross-polar flow episodes. There has just been an unwillingness to get sustained bitter arctic air on our side of the pole into Canada and Alaska since then Just goes to show how a great blocking pattern can overcome all the warmth and produce the first below zero day in NYC since 1994 and the heaviest daily snowfall on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 It's been a furnace since the end of last March minus a few very brief cross-polar flow episodes. There has just been an unwillingness to get sustained bitter arctic air on our side of the pole into Canada and Alaska since thenIt's not just our side of the pole: Eurasia was quite warm this winter, as well. We had large areas of extreme warmth in the Northern Hemisphere due to a Super El Nino, generally positive or neutral AO, cold stratosphere, and the gradually warming climate. There were few areas of below normal temperatures in the hemisphere. Usually when we are warm, Alaska and the western US are cold. But this winter, everyone was warm.Interestingly, there is a very expansive area of cold SSTs developing in the Gulf of AK and Pacific Coast (as well as south of Greenland). If a La Nina does materialize along with a -PDO/-AMO signal, the hemisphere could be substantially colder despite the background warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Latest Euro and GFS hinting a a possible high wind event with the Arctic front early Sunday. Both Euro and GFS also have the potential for the first upper 20's in NYC for April since 2004. The last April 30 degree reading in NYC was in 2007. 2007...30 2004...29 2003...30 2002...30 2000...30 1997...28 1995...23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 Both the Euro and GFS are showing the potential for our first high wind warning event since the February storm early Sunday. The 0z Euro has wind gusts to 50KT or greater with a LLJ maxing out near 60KT in strong CAA with the Arctic cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Both the Euro and GFS are showing the potential for our first high wind warning event since the February storm early Sunday. The 0z Euro has wind gusts to 50KT or greater with a LLJ maxing out near 60KT in strong CAA with the Arctic cold front. OKX agrees as this was in their morning HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION ON VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES CAN BE DAMAGING AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The 12Z Euro probably has some snow for a portion of our region Monday night based in the 24 hour maps, but I'm not sure without seeing the hours in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 the euro shows the NJ suburbs hitting 60 monday between the two cold outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 the euro shows the NJ suburbs hitting 60 monday between the two cold outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The 12Z Euro probably has some snow for a portion of our region Monday night based in the 24 hour maps, but I'm not sure without seeing the hours in between.The Euro is showing a torch on Monday, not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 The Euro is showing a torch on Monday, not snowMonday night into Tuesday morning, look at the maps. It looks like rain to snow for the northern suburbs, but I could very well he wrong as I'm only looking at the 24 hour 850 mb temperatures. Either way, the wind threat Sunday morning looks good, although it's a bit toned down from yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 18Z GFS still advertising very strong gusts for the area on Sunday. The plummeting temperatures and strong winds will make it feel very wintry (there are even some snow squalls for some areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Looks wintry on sunday with snow squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 We will most likely be under High Wind Warnings for Saturday night into Sunday, at the very least Wind Advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 this is impressive. a deep mixed layer with 50-55 kt winds near the top. ewr area http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=00|NAM|US|con|mlcape|84|*226,132*|ml|severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro, NAM and GFS continue to advertise winds gusting 50-60 MPH early Sunday morning (even well inland) as well as a steep temperature drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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