bluewave Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Both the EPS and GEFS are indicating that a very strong -EPO ridge will build near the start of April. This looks like it could be among the strongest for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Wow that's a steep drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 For the love of the snow Gods, can we folks North of 84 actually get a chance? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Maybe we'll see near normal temps instead of above but the NW Atlantic ridge is still there. We might get a nice active period though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 Latest ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for a near record -EPO block to start April. The GEFS drop the EPO below -300 which is among the lowest readings for this time of year. Lowest EPO readings from 3/14 to 4/15 since 1950: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 3/14/58...-355.22 3/14/05...-326.68 3/15/67...-302.75 3/21/02...-319.55 3/25/96...-393.86 3/25/79...-359.44 3/28/54...-355.36 4/07/66...-312.09 4/09/90...-328.11 4/10/53...-319.76 4/15/65...-406.89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Latest ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for a near record -EPO block to start April. The GEFS drop the EPO below -300 which is among the lowest readings for this time of year. Lowest EPO readings from 3/14 to 4/15 since 1950: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 3/14/58...-355.22 3/14/05...-326.68 3/15/67...-302.75 3/21/02...-319.55 3/25/96...-393.86 3/25/79...-359.44 3/28/54...-355.36 4/07/66...-312.09 4/09/90...-328.11 4/10/53...-319.76 4/15/65...-406.89 4panel.png Usually means cold rain in early April..Nothing like cold rainy spring days to start baseball season..yuck! Where was this pattern in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Latest ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for a near record -EPO block to start April. The GEFS drop the EPO below -300 which is among the lowest readings for this time of year. Lowest EPO readings from 3/14 to 4/15 since 1950: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 3/14/58...-355.22 3/14/05...-326.68 3/15/67...-302.75 3/21/02...-319.55 3/25/96...-393.86 3/25/79...-359.44 3/28/54...-355.36 4/07/66...-312.09 4/09/90...-328.11 4/10/53...-319.76 4/15/65...-406.89 4panel.png some very cold periods or snow followed most of those analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Haven't had a chance to look at models today. Are long range signals still showing up? Dt weekend update hinted at possibly record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 What does this mean? 40f for highs in to May 20's at night!!!? SNOW in the middle of April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 What does this mean? 40f for highs in to May 20's at night!!!? SNOW in the middle of April? Impressive cold still isn't a foregone conclusion. The cold could still be less impressive and of a shorter-duration. The 18z GFS showed much less cold for the first week of April than the earlier guidance. A lot can still change between now and the first week in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 What does this mean? 40f for highs in to May 20's at night!!!? SNOW in the middle of April? 6z GFS runs through to the 9th. Just looking at the temp anomalies it's BN the 29th and 30th and again the 3rd-6th. Everything else is more or less AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 The one thing that we know is that North America is going to cool down to start April. We'll have to wait and see the specific details for our region since its still just beyond day 10. What little cold there is available in the Northern hemisphere will all be focused in North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 The ensembles continue to indicate a wetter period with the Gulf opening for business beginning the first week of April. It will all come down to the strength of the SE ridge which so far looks to keep most of the moisture displaced to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 2" over 2 weeks isn't wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 2" over 2 weeks isn't wet. Wetter than what we have been experiencing but nothing out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 2" over 2 weeks isn't wet. It's an ensemble mean. Why are you taking the QPF verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 6z GFS runs through to the 9th. Just looking at the temp anomalies it's BN the 29th and 30th and again the 3rd-6th. Everything else is more or less AN. So then its a few BN days, folks talking like its going to be freezing cold for the next 4 weeks, snow storms and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 So then its a few BN days, folks talking like its going to be freezing cold for the next 4 weeks, snow storms and ice.It's going to be well below average for at least a period. That's a lock. And I think the month overall will be below normalAnd if it does snow, hopefully it's on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 So then its a few BN days, folks talking like its going to be freezing cold for the next 4 weeks, snow storms and ice.Some posters on here begging for the next ice age and believe that it's always at hour 385 on the gfs. Like bluewave said above, the details beyond day 10 are never a lock. I mean, if you believe the 18z gfs it never goes above freezing April 8th. But either way it does look like April will open up with crappy (great to some) weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 It's going to be well below average for at least a period. That's a lock. And I think the month overall will be below normal And if it does snow, hopefully it's on LI NO SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2016 Author Share Posted March 25, 2016 The Euro and GFS both continue to forecast near record low -EPO values for this time of year with the very impressive block developing next week. This results in the PV dropping from the Arctic next week and into Ontario for the start of April. It will be interesting to see if this PV drop is enough for the first April 20's in NYC since 2004. Aprils since 1995 with below 30 lows in NYC: 2004...29 1997...28 1995...23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Euro and GFS freeze warlock to start April about 20 degrees below avg high enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 The Euro and GFS both continue to forecast near record low -EPO values for this time of year with the very impressive block developing next week. This results in the PV dropping from the Arctic next week and into Ontario for the start of April. It will be interesting to see if this PV drop is enough for the first April 20's in NYC since 2004. Aprils since 1995 with below 30 lows in NYC: 2004...29 1997...28 1995...23 the last time NYC had more than one day 32 degrees or lower in April was 2007...it had 4 days 32 or lower... most freezing days in April... 2007...4 2004,,,3 2003...3 2002,,,3 1997...3 1995...3 1982...5 1977...3 1975...6 1972...4 1967...3 1964...3 1954...3 1950...8 1944...4 1943...9...the record... 1940...4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The Euro and GFS both continue to forecast near record low -EPO values for this time of year with the very impressive block developing next week. This results in the PV dropping from the Arctic next week and into Ontario for the start of April. It will be interesting to see if this PV drop is enough for the first April 20's in NYC since 2004. Aprils since 1995 with below 30 lows in NYC: 2004...29 1997...28 1995...23 wow, that's pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 the last time NYC had more than one day 32 degrees or lower in April was 2007...it had 4 days 32 or lower... most freezing days in April... wow, that's pathetic NYC has only dropped below freezing 2 times in April since 2005. But it was much more common between 1995 and 2004. Aprils with below freezing low temps in NYC since 1995: 2014...31 2007...30 2004...29 2003...30 2002...30 2000...30 1997...28 1995...23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 So then its a few BN days, folks talking like its going to be freezing cold for the next 4 weeks, snow storms and ice. yeah, LOL-if it follows this winter's seasonal trend it's a few days of cold, below normal followed by a torch. Granted if it's record breaking or close to it's notable. Figures we'd get the big block in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Euro and GFS freeze warlock to start April about 20 degrees below avg high enjoy It will modify and so much exaggerating. .we always have cold April days...it will not last..not really concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 It will modify and so much exaggerating. .we always have cold April days...it will not last..not really concernedIt's brief but this is a legit arctic blast and stats show we haven't had many below freezing days in April lately.Latest gfs shows lows near 20F which would be significant given how far the growing season is progressing due to the very warm March. However like the brief Feb blast I strongly anticipate an AN April due to significant warming post cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 It will modify and so much exaggerating. .we always have cold April days...it will not last..not really concernedIf it plays out as depicted it will be impressive chill for a few days and yes, the airmass will certainly modify as it treks across snowless ground and the April sun and long days at lower latitudes work on it as it gets here. It is definitely not unusual to have chilly/below normal days in early April.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 here is a list of the coldest snowiest first ten days of April in Central Park since 1950...1950 had more cold with two inches of snow after the 10th...other years with one cold day or one light snowfall are left out...1982 has the greatest April wintry period...2003 the second greatest...Time will tell if April 2016 comes close to the snow and cold for these analog years... 1950............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 01........48....32......0.......0.......0 02........57....46....0.01....0.......0 03........63....48......T.......0.......0 04........76....46....0.02....0.......0 05........63....44....0.06....0.......0 06........48....31....0.13....0.......0 07........50....27.......0......0.......0 08........55....32.......0......0.......0 09........46....27....0.05....T.......0 10........57....29.......0......0.......0 1954............................................. 01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T 02........55....36.......0......0.......0 03........49....24.......0......0.......0 04........43....23.......0......0.......0 05........43....33.......T......T.......0 06........64....43....0.01....0.......0 07........74....53.......T......0.......0 08........77....43....0.17....0.......0 09........56....35.......0......0.......0 10........53....39.......0......0.......0 1956.................................................... 01........52....33.......0......0.......0 02........48....37.......0......0.......0 03........50....40.......T......0.......0 04........51....43....0.01....0.......0 05........66....46.......0......0.......0 06........65....46....0.13....0.......0 07........46....37....0.75....0.......0 08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3 09........52....34.......0......0.......1 10........57....36.......0......0.......0 1957........................................................ 01........59....39....0.02....0.......0 02........62....41....0.78....0.......0 03........50....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2 05........58....34....0.77....0.......0 06........58....44....0.25....0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........50....37....0.31....0.......0 09........45....34....0.15....T.......0 10........51....35.......0......0.......0 1972..................................................... 01........58....41.......0......0.......0 02........54....39....0.13....T.......0 03........48....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....38....0.31....0.......0 05........54....32.......0......0.......0 06........62....42.......0......0.......0 07........42....28....0.03....T.......T 08........43....26.......T......T.......0 09........51....29.......0......0.......0 10........54....37.......0......0.......0 1975....................................................... 01........67....40.......0......0.......0 02........54....37.......0......0.......0 03........55....33....1.02....0.......0 04........37....27.......0......0.......0 05........41....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....30.......0......0.......0 07........47....29.......0......0.......0 08........47....31.......T......T.......0 09........52....33.......0......0.......0 10........58....32.......0......0.......0 1982................................................ 01........65....46.......0......0.......0 02........58....36.......0......0.......0 03........56....43....1.86....0.......0 04........52....32.......T......T.......0 05........48....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3 07........30....21.......0......0.......9 08........43....25.......0......0.......6 09........39....34.......T......T.......3 10........53....34.......0......0.......2 1995....................................................... 01........55....37.......0......0.......0 02........49....35.......0......0.......0 03........56....34.......0......0.......0 04........68....28....0.04....0.......0 05........39....23.......0......0.......0 06........49....28.......0......0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........44....39....0.14....T.......0 09........68....41....0.56....0.......0 10........56....34.......T......0.......0 2003........................................................ 01........43....30....0.11....T.......0 02........57....39.......T......0.......0 03........54....40.......0......0.......0 04........44....35.......0......0.......0 05........43....35.......0......0.......0 06........47....33.......0......0.......0 07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1 08........37....31.......0......0.......3 09........39....35....0.30....0.......1 10........52....36.......0......0.......0 2007................................................ 01........50....42....0.06....0.......0 02........56....42....0.06....0.......0 03........63....42.......0......0.......0 04........42....40....0.85....0.......0 05........44....34.......T......T.......0 06........42....31.......T......T.......0 07........43....31.......0......0.......0 08........41....30.......0......0.......0 09........49....32.......0......0.......0 10........51....33.......0......0.......0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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