ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Define decent. 6"? NOT boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 NOT boring. hey it's subjective I get it. But man there's something special about the big storms. I just appreciate the magnitude and the rarity of those beasts. I feel like people, not saying this applies to Ginxy, but people have been getting spoiled with our 2 foot storms recently. I hope they realize that probably will end soon. Maybe a few years of 6-8" max storms will bring some down to Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 That was an out of season snowfall that didn't save winter at all. It was an epic snowstorm like Oct 11 was. I guarantee no one considers 11/12 a great winter because of Oct 11 agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 hey it's subjective I get it. But man there's something special about the big storms. I just appreciate the magnitude and the rarity of those beasts. I feel like people, not saying this applies to Ginxy, but people have been getting spoiled with our 2 foot storms recently. I hope they realize that probably will end soon. Maybe a few years of 6-8" max storms will bring some down to Earth.if you had an historical snow storm equal to April 97 in October would you include it in your winter rating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 NOT boring.Pete repete,out of original material? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 hey it's subjective I get it. But man there's something special about the big storms. I just appreciate the magnitude and the rarity of those beasts. I feel like people, not saying this applies to Ginxy, but people have been getting spoiled with our 2 foot storms recently. I hope they realize that probably will end soon. Maybe a few years of 6-8" max storms will bring some down to Earth. Powderfreak will be happier than a pig in sh** when he gets like a 14-16" synoptic storm up there...and that isn't even rare there. He's going to really enjoy the crash back to earth for coastal MA and CT. It's funny how polarizing the past few winters have been for the two areas. Hopefully near me, we'll get away with it...just like we were far enough east for the coastal bombs...hopefully we are far enough inland for the next great interior winter....ala 2000-2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 if you had an historical snow storm equal to April 97 in October would you include it in your winter rating? I definitely would...I probably wouldn't weight it as high as a Mar 31-Apr 1 dated storm, but I'd definitely include it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 agreedOct 11 didn't happen in Boston so it doesn't count or it was so out of season it doesn't even though it was the 2nd significant snow of the "cold" season according to some. Winter has a never ending date but only if it's not starting in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It would be bette if it happened at the end of a crappy winter.....76-77 was a good winter. What was interesting about 96-97 was the fact that December, March/April delivered,little else did. We probably aren't going to agree on this but that winter was way way better vs 11-12 or 15-16. agree....even where in lived in bristol ct the second part of the dec double puch produced tssn and ten inches of paste and rates that hit 2 inches plus/hr briefly and the april fools event produced over a foot of snow....we had 48 inches and two events was half of it.....still nothing like eastern zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I believe the original question of what grade to give the Winter of 15-16 is a trick question. There was no winter of 16. We went straight from November to April. I can not remember an event this "season" in which we got over 2 inches and did not flip to rain as part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 if you had an historical snow storm equal to April 97 in October would you include it in your winter rating? That's statistically impossible, but yes I would include it to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Powderfreak will be happier than a pig in sh** when he gets like a 14-16" synoptic storm up there...and that isn't even rare there. He's going to really enjoy the crash back to earth for coastal MA and CT. It's funny how polarizing the past few winters have been for the two areas. Hopefully near me, we'll get away with it...just like we were far enough east for the coastal bombs...hopefully we are far enough inland for the next great interior winter....ala 2000-2001. It's going to be horrible reading those posts out of anger about how snow is back where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It's as possible that regression to the mean doesn't happen as possible it does. I would think it should but as shown when is question. Eventually calling for it every year will be the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I believe the original question of what grade to give the Winter of 15-16 is a trick question. There was no winter of 16. We went straight from November to April. I can not remember an event this "season" in which we got over 2 inches and did not flip to rain as part of the event. Your snow total is amazing to me. To have a seasonal total of 36" at nearly 1300 feet in northern VT in late March is ridiculous. I'd at least feel safe to say you won't see that again in your lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Regression does not have to mean 10" a year. It could be a series of just avg winters too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 That's statistically impossible, but yes I would include it to an extent.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 ? 2-3' for me in late October. Ok, maybe 1-1000yrs. The point is there. As rare as 4/1 was, It's exponentially harder to do in these parts at end of Oxtober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Your snow total is amazing to me. To have a seasonal total of 36" at nearly 1300 feet in northern VT in late March is ridiculous. I'd at least feel safe to say you won't see that again in your lifetime. This winter is setting the new low bar. Like Oceanstwx said... when John's weather in Pittsburgh, NH at like 1,500ft on the Canadian border has a max depth of 13" for the season, you know you are in uncharted territory. That's also in the range of my max depth at 1,550ft at the base of Mansfield. I'll have to check but its either 13" or 14" back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 This winter is setting the new low bar. Like Oceanstwx said... when John's weather in Pittsburgh, NH at like 1,500ft on the Canadian border has a max depth of 13" for the season, you know you are in uncharted territory. That's also in the range of my max depth at 1,550ft at the base of Mansfield. I'll have to check but its either 13" or 14" back in January. Man, if you get a train of multiple 6-10" SWFEs next season in a 3 week span...that's gonna seem like a record breaking winter up there after this season's disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Powderfreak will be happier than a pig in sh** when he gets like a 14-16" synoptic storm up there...and that isn't even rare there. He's going to really enjoy the crash back to earth for coastal MA and CT. It's funny how polarizing the past few winters have been for the two areas. Hopefully near me, we'll get away with it...just like we were far enough east for the coastal bombs...hopefully we are far enough inland for the next great interior winter....ala 2000-2001. Yup...when we finally get that 12"+ event it'll be awesome. I have to look back at last winter, but I think my only warning criteria event that winter was in December 2014. To think that a few miles away from Vermont's highest peak in my backyard we went the entire 2015 year without a warning event and if it doesn't happen early next season we might squeeze in two full years without a warning event. Really think about that...the possibility of two full years without a warning event for a spot that averages 120-125" (which now probably is like 115"). I bet in that time BOS area has had literally 7-8 warning events. Even in this crappy winter they had what, 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Man, if you get a train of multiple 6-10" SWFEs next season in a 3 week span...that's gonna seem like a record breaking winter up there after this season's disaster. That's going to be the fringe benefit of this winter... we will be very easily pleased going forward. All we have to do is not smoke cirrus on multiple coastal lows in a row, lol. Heck even like a normal 40-inch January (shouldn't be that hard to do 10"/week up here) will feel like an all-out blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yup...when we finally get that 12"+ event it'll be awesome. I have to look back at last winter, but I think my only warning criteria event that winter was in December 2014. To think that a few miles away from Vermont's highest peak in my backyard we went the entire 2015 year without a warning event and if it doesn't happen early next season we might squeeze in two full years without a warning event. Really think about that...the possibility of two full years without a warning event for a spot that averages 120-125" (which now probably is like 115"). I bet in that time BOS area has had literally 7-8 warning events. Even in this crappy winter they had what, 3? Good guess...7 total. Amazingly, BOS had only 4 warning events last winter....but all 4 were over 16" including 2 of them over 23"...lol. There were a ton of 2-5" snowfalls in between...BOS was like mini-Mansfield last year. They did have 3 warning events this winter somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I definitely would...I probably wouldn't weight it as high as a Mar 31-Apr 1 dated storm, but I'd definitely include it. Look at CON, October 2011 is a top 5 storm ever. Hard not to count that towards a winter rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 D. Unless we get a foot tonight and the. It goes to C-. I suspect that's not in the cards. Strangely enough, it didn't bother me in the least. It didn't bother me either. Five years ago I'd be tying a noose and throwing it over a ceiling rafter. Today? ehhh .... no big deal. Having said that, it has to be an F. Few interesting systems and 50% snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I never pull the plug on snow until April 15th. That is the historical drop dead date for worth while snow for my area/elevation. There has not been anything (that I can find) more than 1-2" after that until you go way back to 1887. Assuming no more (sig/worthy) snow this winter will get a solid F. Currently it has my lowest seasonal total by comfortable margin in 20 years of data here. I might still hate 1998-99 more. That was just awful here. First 4" event was on March 6 and the seasonal total was saved from all time infamy by the mid March event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 I never pull the plug on snow until April 15th. That is the historical drop dead date for worth while snow for my area/elevation. There has not been anything (that I can find) more than 1-2" after that until you go way back to 1887. Assuming no more (sig/worthy) snow this winter will get a solid F. Currently it has my lowest seasonal total by comfortable margin in 20 years of data here. I might still hate 1998-99 more. That was just awful here. First 4" event was on March 6 and the seasonal total was saved from all time infamy by the mid March event. What did you get in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 B\B+ 11" AB snowfall for my area. Temps were wildly warm in Dec, balls normal in Jan and AB feb and March. Despite the warmth, had good timing with cold and precip. Jan HECS skews things a bit but am grateful to have had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 What did you get in this I don't quite know but for now I can't argue with that 1" on the map almost right on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 My subjective grading is based on a (subjective) scoring system that at least compares temps/snowfall to previous winters. I also adjust for things like snowpack depth and retention, or how so many of this season's 2-4" snowfalls were washed away within 4-6 hours following the accum. Since March is, on balance, a winter month (especially for padding the SDDs, in a normal winter), it gets 20% of my total score, with DJF splitting 70%, Novie 4% and April 6%. If October or May has significant snowfall, I'd include that in my overall subjective adjustment. Since I've been away March 15-29, I can only estimate (until reconstructing from nearby co-op data next week), using cocorahs and posts on here. March 1-14 was +4 for temp and had one 4" snowfall ending with significant zr/ra - as usual. It looks like the 2nd half was near normal for temps, with a couple of 1"-or-less sleety events and a near whiff on the 3/21 storm. Assuming April is C-level for both temp and snowfall, 15-16 will grade out as my worst winter of 18 here, taking the crown-of-slush from 09-10. It's very close to that earlier winter's mild temps, with significantly less snowfall and SDDs. 2005-06 is the nearest comp for snowfall, but was colder even though it had a lot fewer SDDs. Celebrate the new champion!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 If there was a grade worse than F this winter would get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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