ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Ray's regression to the mean post was in Feb 11, still waiting It'll happen...this could be the start of it this year...we got a ratter finally. I hope we bounce back with three straight awesome winters like we did after 2011-2012...but I wouldn't actually expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Ray's regression to the mean post was in Feb 11, still waiting Ha yeah you probably had normal snowfall this winter or close to it, right? So you snuck by another winter without a true ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The party will be over soon. You guys should regress to normal at some point. I don't avg more than Kevin. It's going to be hell when all you interior folk start out with "the snow is where it belongs" posts. Haha, hey I'm not someone to make those posts anyway. I'm sure there might be some ribbing though like these past few winters. But its really been since 2011-2012 since up here we've had a significantly better winter than anyone else... and that was still a ratter. Sort of like what SE New England did this season was what NW New England did in 2011-12. Wasn't a banner year but made out a heck of a lot better than other areas. But like Will said, its not often we get *this* scale of polarity between the interior and those within 50-75 miles of the coast over multiple seasons now. Like relative to normal... UNV-BGM-ALB-BTV probably couldn't be any more different than like PHL-ISP-BOS-RKD-EPM in the mean over the last 4 winters. The more amazing thing is that SNE is doing it all without a -NAO which was always like the holy grail of indexes for snow weenies in the mid-Atlantic and SNE. Like the Leon winter (-EPO), last winter (great Pacific pattern), and even making out well this winter on the coastal plain for a Super Nino with a +NAO. This winter to me really shows how "lucky" (might not be the right word) this multi-year run has been for some areas...Super Nino with a raging positive NAO and somehow the coastal plain back to ORH is the only place getting advisory/warning events. Its like pulling the lever and getting the jackpot every time. Weather is humbling. Now watch us rattle off like 3 straight -NAO winters and all of them go below normal snowfall...just for nature to prove a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Ha yeah you probably had normal snowfall this winter or close to it, right? So you snuck by another winter without a true ratter. He didn't get 50-55" where he is (that's his average). He was solidly below average (I'm guessing he had mid to high 30s)....granted not nearly as horrible as it was back in your area down to W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 He didn't get 50-55" where he is (that's his average). He was solidly below average (I'm guessing he had mid to high 30s)....granted not nearly as horrible as it was back in your area down to W SNE. Ah thanks for the info. Maybe down near his work? I know there are posters here from the CT coast that are at normal for the season, but yeah probably areas that average 30-35" or something. It also seems closer to normal to me I think when folks are like one good warning event away from getting within the "normal" boundaries. You know when folks are like "if this one or two storms broke differently we'd be normal." Anyway, like I told Scott, that area probably did what we did in 2011-2012. It goes down as a ratter but feels much different because of how you did relative to everyone else. Like that winter I was still 35" under normal but 90" of seasonal snow felt pretty good compared to the other regional totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Haha, hey I'm not someone to make those posts anyway. I'm sure there might be some ribbing though like these past few winters. But its really been since 2011-2012 since up here we've had a significantly better winter than anyone else... and that was still a ratter. Sort of like what SE New England did this season was what NW New England did in 2011-12. Wasn't a banner year but made out a heck of a lot better than other areas. But like Will said, its not often we get *this* scale of polarity between the interior and those within 50-75 miles of the coast over multiple seasons now. Like relative to normal... UNV-BGM-ALB-BTV probably couldn't be any more different than like PHL-ISP-BOS-RKD-EPM in the mean over the last 4 winters. The more amazing thing is that SNE is doing it all without a -NAO which was always like the holy grail of indexes for snow weenies in the mid-Atlantic and SNE. Like the Leon winter (-EPO), last winter (great Pacific pattern), and even making out well this winter on the coastal plain for a Super Nino with a +NAO. This winter to me really shows how "lucky" (might not be the right word) this multi-year run has been for some areas...Super Nino with a raging positive NAO and somehow the coastal plain back to ORH is the only place getting advisory/warning events. Its like pulling the lever and getting the jackpot every time. Weather is humbling. Now watch us rattle off like 3 straight -NAO winters and all of them go below normal snowfall...just for nature to prove a point. All true. Hey, I'm just enjoying the ride. We have been fortunate overall the last 10+ yrs. Hell, Going back to 1993 really. The ride will end sooner or later. I hope everyone really cherishes these good times we have had. They will not last. As an 80s kid......I shudder to think of those times. Those who are in their late 20s and younger....you have no idea how good it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Ha yeah you probably had normal snowfall this winter or close to it, right? So you snuck by another winter without a true ratter. 20 under,2 good storms but not a dead ratter 2012 style. But a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Winter isn't just the amount of snow. Having a 32 inch total this year means little. Very little consistency this winter. Had a long conversation with a man in Maine over a couple of beers. He talked about how not having winter affected so many of his friends. Short work weeks, layoffs, short paychecks. It's a big deal. He said to me, you grew up in a resort town, imagine if a hurricane hit in early June and shut down the beaches all summer imagine how many businesses, employees would be affected,now try and imagine that impact from NY to Maine. That's what we dealt with this year. A shutdown of our income. He did say most have diversified enough to stay afloat but they depend on winter to capitalize the rest of the year,so this year will be a lean one. Let's hope winter returns next year especially for those who make a living off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Not to clog up this thread with ski stuff (not sure if it belongs in the ski thread) but the company I work for does the f&b for some mountains in the northeast and let me be frank! This season has been if not the worst in 20 years it has to be at least #2 financially. Hard to keep employees working in an already rough seasonal atmosphere. Really hope next year is a bounce back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Winter isn't just the amount of snow. Having a 32 inch total this year means little. Very little consistency this winter. Had a long conversation with a man in Maine over a couple of beers. He talked about how not having winter affected so many of his friends. Short work weeks, layoffs, short paychecks. It's a big deal. He said to me, you grew up in a resort town, imagine if a hurricane hit in early June and shut down the beaches all summer imagine how many businesses, employees would be affected,now try and imagine that impact from NY to Maine. That's what we dealt with this year. A shutdown of our income. He did say most have diversified enough to stay afloat but they depend on winter to capitalize the rest of the year,so this year will be a lean one. Let's hope winter returns next year especially for those who make a living off of it. Yeah it really does make a big difference. I know some on here joke about it when people are upset over the lack of snow, but its not just weenies being weenies sometimes. I believe Jay Peak just laid off 130 workers, Smuggs was laying off year-round positions in the past month or making them take what's called "May away" in the ski industry...but instead of just May, this year its April/May/June for some. MRG closing early, laid everyone off. Killington has had layoffs, and as skivt2 has said, the shortening of Pico's operating season put more people in the unemployment line. There have been "Pray for Snow" signs in the yards of Bed and Breakfasts, its still in the newspapers weekly, nightly news, etc. Vermont (as I'm sure Maine and New Hampshire) is way down on state tax revenue from this winter (like 40% or something ridiculous), which impacts all citizens. It is a big deal...like your analogy, its just as big of an impact as a hurricane hitting financially, but not as exciting because its like a slow monetary drain when it doesn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Yeah it really does make a big difference. I know some on here joke about it when people are upset over the lack of snow, but its not just weenies being weenies sometimes. I believe Jay Peak just laid off 130 workers, Smuggs was laying off year-round positions in the past month or making them take what's called "May away" in the ski industry...but instead of just May, this year its April/May/June for some. MRG closing early, laid everyone off. Killington has had layoffs, and as skivt2 has said, the shortening of Pico's operating season put more people in the unemployment line. There have been "Pray for Snow" signs in the yards of Bed and Breakfasts, its still in the newspapers weekly, nightly news, etc. Vermont (as I'm sure Maine and New Hampshire) is way down on state tax revenue from this winter (like 40% or something ridiculous), which impacts all citizens. It is a big deal...like your analogy, its just as big of an impact as a hurricane hitting financially, but not as exciting because its like a slow monetary drain when it doesn't snow. Fishing derbies and winter carnivals that are big income makers for some towns, all up in smoke this year. It's really been the places that we (flat-landers) assume always have snow that have taken it hard. John up on the weenie ridge in Pittsburg still has yet to crack 100" on the year. His max depth has been 13", and that was just 20 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Winter isn't just the amount of snow. Having a 32 inch total this year means little. Very little consistency this winter. Had a long conversation with a man in Maine over a couple of beers. He talked about how not having winter affected so many of his friends. Short work weeks, layoffs, short paychecks. It's a big deal. He said to me, you grew up in a resort town, imagine if a hurricane hit in early June and shut down the beaches all summer imagine how many businesses, employees would be affected,now try and imagine that impact from NY to Maine. That's what we dealt with this year. A shutdown of our income. He did say most have diversified enough to stay afloat but they depend on winter to capitalize the rest of the year,so this year will be a lean one. Let's hope winter returns next year especially for those who make a living off of it. It entirely is to me. I could care less about retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It entirely is to me. I could care less about retention. Yeah it is a subjective thing to grade winter. People just need to understand that is how it is going to be...some folks place more weight on temps and snow cover retention while others put most of the weight solely on the seasonal snow total. Hopefully this year isn't the start of a lean period even though we are "due" for one. (in quotes since there's really no such thing as being due...but regression does eventually happen...it just might happen 10 or 20 years from now instead of starting this season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 It entirely is to me. I could care less about retention.so a 24 in Dec and a 24 in March equate to a good winter? Can't even begin to fathom that line of thinking. There's the totality of winter and then there's annual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Hopefully this year isn't the start of a lean period even though we are "due" for one. (in quotes since there's really no such thing as being due...but regression does eventually happen...it just might happen 10 or 20 years from now instead of starting this season). Its just so funny reading these posts sometimes (like I'm sure it is for some of you when us interior folks post) as I've been thinking we are "due" for a snowy period of several winters in a row. I still don't get how the Mansfield snow is so cyclical but there's a very clear up and down trend since 1954....and we are bottoming out like the late 1980s right now so if the cycle holds we would see a nice 5-year trend upward. Cycle. We'll see but there were a series of darn good winters starting within a few winters of the bottom. It seems to escalate quickly after the worst winter in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 so a 24 in Dec and a 24 in March equate to a good winter? Can't even begin to fathom that line of thinking. There's the totality of winter and then there's annual snow. I see his point...but also yours. Up here though it would be hard to get normal or above snowfall and not have some enjoyable storms and snowpack. If you are going to rack up 125" of snow there's going to be some on the ground for a period of time or at least some significantly fun wintery periods regardless of how it falls. If its a 70-inch month that might be worth punting the next month, I'm not sure. I tend to grade on total seasonal snowfall and then how it is relative to other areas in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Its just so funny reading these posts sometimes (like I'm sure it is for some of you when us interior folks post) as I've been thinking we are "due" for a snowy period of several winters in a row. I still don't get how the Mansfield snow is so cyclical but there's a very clear up and down trend since 1954....and we are bottoming out like the late 1980s right now so if the cycle holds we would see a nice 5-year trend upward. Cycle. We'll see but there were a series of darn good winters starting within a few winters of the bottom. It seems to escalate quickly after the worst winter in the period. Mansfield_Seasonal_Snow.png It will eventually even out...it may not work in the perfect cycle though...for ORH, the late 1950s through early 1970s is the outlier actually...17 consecutive winters above 60". It's usually pretty volatile outside of that stretch, though recently you can see how the running average is now higher than even at the end of that amazing stretch...weve been lucky. The 15 year running average breached 80". This graph though hasn't been updated for this winter yet, so the running average will come back down a bit once this winter is done...assuming we don't get some freak 3 foot snowstorm in April, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I see his point...but also yours. Up here though it would be hard to get normal or above snowfall and not have some enjoyable storms and snowpack. If you are going to rack up 125" of snow there's going to be some on the ground for a period of time or at least some significantly fun wintery periods regardless of how it falls. If its a 70-inch month that might be worth punting the next month, I'm not sure. I tend to grade on total seasonal snowfall and then how it is relative to other areas in the region. There's great winters then there's annual snowfall great winters I guess. If I had 12 inches in Dec and only 40 more the rest of the year but that 12 inches was still around March 15th even though I only had climo, that would be a great winter to me. If I had a fluke 24 in November that melted in 2 days and then 28 in the following 3 months that melted quickly even though I had the same amount of snow it would not be a great winter. Its probably because of me being an outdoor winter person who likes to see cold and snow cover for winter activities I have a different view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 so a 24 in Dec and a 24 in March equate to a good winter? Can't even begin to fathom that line of thinking. There's the totality of winter and then there's annual snow. Pretty much. It's tainted by mid winter mildness but the chances of that happening is typically very low...don't think it ever has happened. See 1996-97. Saved by one of the all timers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Pretty much. It's tainted by mid winter mildness but the chances of that happening is typically very low...don't think it ever has happened. See 1996-97. Saved by one of the all timers.That was an out of season snowfall that didn't save winter at all. It was an epic snowstorm like Oct 11 was. I guarantee no one considers 11/12 a great winter because of Oct 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 That was an out of season snowfall that didn't save winter at all. It was an epic snowstorm like Oct 11 was. I guarantee no one considers 11/12 a great winter because of Oct 11 Well that is also because Oct '11 didn't give anyone near the percent of their seasonal snowfall as BOS got in 1997 from the Mar 31-Apr 1 storm. If I had gotten 40" in October 2011, I probably would have bumped that winter up a notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Not one freaking day we could snowblow!! I shoveled a little bit one day but did it just to say I did pretty much ugh Worst winter ever. Zero ski days. 36 hours of decent cold was the only highlight. More snow in DC in one storm than the valley got all season. I wonder why I even changed the oil in my snow blower last year. A solid F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 That was an out of season snowfall that didn't save winter at all. It was an epic snowstorm like Oct 11 was. I guarantee no one considers 11/12 a great winter because of Oct 11 Not a good analogy. 4/1/97 saved that winter for so many of us. It was by no means a great winter but it was respectable thanks to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Well that is also because Oct '11 didn't give anyone near the percent of their seasonal snowfall as BOS got in 1997 from the Mar 31-Apr 1 storm. If I had gotten 40" in October 2011, I probably would have bumped that winter up a notch. how can you bump winter up from a Fall/spring snowstorm? Peru Mass had 32 in 11,how much did Boston have? I mean unreal storm but out of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Not a good analogy. 4/1/97 saved that winter for so many of us.Lol watching snowfall is cool and all but we are from different worlds in what we consider winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 May 77 saved winter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 May 77 saved winter for me It would be bette if it happened at the end of a crappy winter.....76-77 was a good winter. What was interesting about 96-97 was the fact that December, March/April delivered,little else did. We probably aren't going to agree on this but that winter was way way better vs 11-12 or 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 how can you bump winter up from a Fall/spring snowstorm? Peru Mass had 32 in 11,how much did Boston have? I mean unreal storm but out of season. Make your grade "met winter" then if it gets you all in a tizzy. Winter for me is cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 It would be bette if it happened at the end of a crappy winter.....76-77 was a good winter. What was interesting about 96-97 was the fact that December, March/April delivered,little else did. We probably aren't going to agree on this but that winter was way way better vs 11-12 or 15-16. 96/97 was better in my hood by the end of January already had more than all of this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Make your grade "met winter" then if it gets you all in a tizzy. Winter for me is cold season. Tizzy? Sorry I have a different opinion, still American wx.com not Russia Wx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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