The 4 Seasons Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'd give ORH a D...could be revised to a C- if there's another decent even in April. For snowfall, this season's total of 37.2" is about a 1 in 6 result...quite bad. The warmth was very real as this is a top 5 warmest winter...though it was mitigated a bit by a historical cold shot where ORH produced their single coldest reading in almost 6 decades and their coldest February reading in over 7 decades. So that counts for something. There was also a 12" snow event for the 6th consecutive season. You have to go back to 2009-2010 when they failed to have one. I would reserve the grade of F for a winter like the late 1980s or early 1990s when there were no double digit snow events and no real notable arctic outbreaks...sans the amazing month of Dec 1989. I remember seeing somewhere or reading it somewhere online, I forget where it was... that ORH probability of seeing a 12"+ storm is 50% (so one every other year), and BOS is 33%. So that's is something that you are on 6 yr streak for >12" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'm not sure there is an official coop with good data in that area...but I have to imagine the absolute worst spot was somewhere in S VT at elevation where they probably average over 150" per year and got like 30-40", lol. The raw deficit isn't so amazing as the absolute shear improbable nature of that total. Some highlands in W MA and E NY are no doubt in a similar boat. I think Stratton averages like 200-225 at 3,000ft and they've had 50" as reported on their web site. That's a pretty solid deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 A for temps. C for snow B overall A for temps?? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 24.5" for me on the year so far. Bad but not historically bad. Also - the 9.0" event was bigger than any single event last year. That last paragraph is the best stat. You're due for a good death band over WeHa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 D + Overall, temps were out of control warm and cold was too transient with too many cutters and whiffs. . However, there were a few things that kept this winter from totally flunking. First, there were the two and a half weeks in Jan, which were cold with snow on the ground and a couple of light/moderate storms. Second, there was the Feb. 5th to Feb. 15th period which featured the feb 5th paste job, consistent cold, and I think there was some other light event in that period along with the Valentines Day arctic shot. And then, of course, there was the storm yeaterday morning which was nice. I've seen worse, but yes, this winter was a horror show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I remember seeing somewhere or reading it somewhere online, I forget where it was... that ORH probability of seeing a 12"+ storm is 50% (so one every other year), and BOS is 33%. So that's is something that you are on 6 yr streak for >12" storms. Yeah I think the prob was 55%...though that was calculated with only a 30 year average which included the 1980s...I think the longer term probability is something like 65-70%...but yeah, 6 straight years of a 12"+ event is not shabby at all. In fact, it is one shy of the record which happened from 1957-1958 through 1963-1964 winters....and again 1965-1966 through 1971-1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 A for temps?? Why? He's a warmanista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 How about Williamsport ,Pa with 5.9"? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 How about Williamsport ,Pa with 5.9"? Lol BGM with 22.7" is pretty incredible too...they get a lot of LES streamers so their floor is usually pretty high. I think this might easily be their lowest total on record IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 BGM with 22.7" is pretty incredible too...they get a lot of LES streamers so their floor is usually pretty high. I think this might easily be their lowest total on record IIRC.I mean 5.9" in that area is just unfathomable unless they don't typically get lake effect. ? Maybe they aren't in the right corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 IPT can get rotted flurries, but they are kind of a pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I mean 5.9" in that area is just unfathomable unless they don't typically get lake effect. ? Maybe they aren't in the right corridor? Williamsport is south of most lake effect streamers...not as good an area like BGM which gets more multi-band stuff...though they might sometimes get an occasional leftover from Erie. But 5.9" is still absolutely deplorable for them...pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 IPT can get rotted flurries, but they are kind of a pit. Yeah they are not in a good area relative to their surroundings...but they still do average like low 40s per season...so it's pretty amazing they only have 5.9". It does look like they had a comparable year in 1988-1989...with 7.0" as their total. Pretty weird that they have had a few seasons lower than BOS all time lowest total despite similar annual average. When looking at IPT's recent totals...they have been in an absolute sh**streak the past decade or so. They have had only 3 seasons with more than 40" since 2003-2004...and zero of those 3 seasons were over 50". That interior PA to interior NY State belt cannot buy a good winter recently. Glad we don't live there. They should all move to Weymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 i avg 45-50 so if there are a few places in s vt that avg low 60s that isn't that much better than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Yeah they are not in a good area relative to their surroundings...but they still do average like low 40s per season...so it's pretty amazing they only have 5.9". It does look like they had a comparable year in 1988-1989...with 7.0" as their total. Pretty weird that they have had a few seasons lower than BOS all time lowest total despite similar annual average. When looking at IPT's recent totals...they have been in an absolute sh**streak the past decade or so. They have had only 3 seasons with more than 40" since 2003-2004...and zero of those 3 seasons were over 50". That interior PA to interior NY State belt cannot buy a good winter recently. Glad we don't live there. They should all move to Weymouth. LOL. Yeah I know the area. They usually are good for decent events that are sub 10", but it's tough to grab good snows outside those ridges. Still 5.9"? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 That's like an Avg DC winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 That's like an Avg DC winter 5.9" is more like an average NC winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Changing my grade from a C- to C. Last week's 3 inches beings my town to 30 on the nose and exactly average. Snow event totals 11.5 9.0 5.0 1.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 BGM with 22.7" is pretty incredible too...they get a lot of LES streamers so their floor is usually pretty high. I think this might easily be their lowest total on record IIRC. BGM is also at like 1,500ft or something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Pretty weird that they have had a few seasons lower than BOS all time lowest total despite similar annual average. When looking at IPT's recent totals...they have been in an absolute sh**streak the past decade or so. They have had only 3 seasons with more than 40" since 2003-2004...and zero of those 3 seasons were over 50". That interior PA to interior NY State belt cannot buy a good winter recently. Glad we don't live there. They should all move to Weymouth. That belt is streaking north and east now too, haha, into parts of NNE and western SNE. Its pretty interesting to me that Mansfield Co-Op is in a 1980s funk right now, as that site has tied the record most seasons with a sub-200" total in the bucket...which also occurred in like the 1986-1992 period. I have no doubt it switches around at some point and it'll feel pretty nice when we finally get one of those winters where the entire interior back to Syracuse is like 125% of normal. Just a crazy stretch for anyone within 50-100 miles of the Atlantic, and borderline 1980s for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Worst winter ever. Zero ski days. 36 hours of decent cold was the only highlight. More snow in DC in one storm than the valley got all season. I wonder why I even changed the oil in my snow blower last year. A solid F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 F. Straight up mutha fu*kin F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 BGM is also at like 1,500ft or something too. my short and long term averages are below normal, the stretch wasn't that great here from bdl to orh back to hpn i would agree 60 miles inland here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 That belt is streaking north and east now too, haha, into parts of NNE and western SNE. Its pretty interesting to me that Mansfield Co-Op is in a 1980s funk right now, as that site has tied the record most seasons with a sub-200" total in the bucket...which also occurred in like the 1986-1992 period. I have no doubt it switches around at some point and it'll feel pretty nice when we finally get one of those winters where the entire interior back to Syracuse is like 125% of normal. Just a crazy stretch for anyone within 50-100 miles of the Atlantic, and borderline 1980s for the interior. Yeah the difference is pretty amazing...usually it's not like that. There are times where the interior benefits a lot more or less...but usually it is not polar opposite of the coast. Maybe for a stretch in the 1970s the interior was quite a bit better off than the coast...but not like "record snow interior...record lack of snow coast" type inverse relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Changing my grade from a C- to C. Last week's 3 inches beings my town to 30 on the nose and exactly average. Snow event totals 11.5 9.0 5.0 1.5 3 You got the main storms but if you are missing the nickel and dime events which probably puts you in the low thirties. We are not in the exact same spot but i would venture to say that you at least saw a few events that were 0.1-1.0" (12/28 the whole state saw accumulating snow and sleet (it was mostly sleet) but that still counts in the seasonal total for snow. On 1/17 we were grazed by a coastal storm where the shore saw most of the snow but it was very very light on the tenths of an inch side that melted fast. Same for March 4th. And on 2/10 we saw some light snow from an IVT where the shore was up on an advisory but it got dropped.) I know these are petty but they do add up. It can be tough if you are at work and it snows then melts quickly and you dont have time to measure it. If i didn't include those events i would be at 35 and instead of 37.5. You're grade C is one of the highest I've seen so far, no one is even coming close to my B+ It's definitely far from an F... any winter that has >100% of normal snowfall should see at least a C (average) IMO and the points i listed i think justify a higher grade. But this is all subjective anyways and it's just a matter of perspective and personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 That belt is streaking north and east now too, haha, into parts of NNE and western SNE. Its pretty interesting to me that Mansfield Co-Op is in a 1980s funk right now, as that site has tied the record most seasons with a sub-200" total in the bucket...which also occurred in like the 1986-1992 period. I have no doubt it switches around at some point and it'll feel pretty nice when we finally get one of those winters where the entire interior back to Syracuse is like 125% of normal. Just a crazy stretch for anyone within 50-100 miles of the Atlantic, and borderline 1980s for the interior. The party will be over soon. You guys should regress to normal at some point. I don't avg more than Kevin. It's going to be hell when all you interior folk start out with "the snow is where it belongs" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The party will be over soon. You guys should regress to normal at some point. I don't avg more than Kevin. It's going to be hell when all you interior folk start out with "the snow is where it belongs" posts. Soon is relative, it would suck to have to wait a few more years for a breakout winter. Lol. I have been over a year w/o a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Soon is relative, it would suck to have to wait a few more years for a breakout winter. Lol. I have been over a year w/o a warning event. same here really....the early feb 7 incher was only on top of cars and porches/grassy surfaces...roads had 3-4 inches on them... i mean people don't drive on the tops of cars and porches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 The party will be over soon. You guys should regress to normal at some point. I don't avg more than Kevin. It's going to be hell when all you interior folk start out with "the snow is where it belongs" posts.Ray's regression to the mean post was in Feb 11, still waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 and yet this year still delivered in almost the same fashion as last year geographically speaking...just that delivered meant near or normal or slightly below normal snowfall while the rest of the area was literally high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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