Chargers09 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The real question is will Geos throw in the towel if the Euro caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GFS has been pretty poor in terms of 500mb verification lately, compared to the EURO. So I'd put more weight into the southern camp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The real question is will Geos throw in the towel if the Euro caves Probably. Depends on how far it would move. Less than 25 mile difference, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Seasonal trends for the win. Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things. As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm. Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things. As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm. Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. i've had multiple storms trend north AND south of me this winter at this range, it's a weak talking point for sure i think march 23/24 and model consensus supports north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 i've had multiple storms trend north AND south of me this winter at this range, it's a weak talking point for sure i think march 23/24 and model consensus supports north If by some chance the ECMWF doesn't shift north on the 12z run, it's going to be hard to discount even without full upper air sampling yet, and especially if its backed up by its ensembles. So far the ensembles have been backing up the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 If by some chance the ECMWF doesn't shift north on the 12z run, it's going to be hard to discount even without full upper air sampling yet, and especially if its backed up by its ensembles. So far the ensembles have been backing up the southern track. it's going to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Maintaining the soaker for Chicago. I think that Sheboygan and points north do well. I think the trend will be weaker and north. The 850s and up are pretty warm and in the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 To show the difference in how far south the lake enhanced cold front gets before the storm ejects into the region. EURO top, 6z GFS bottom (12z didn't load) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 geos really clutching at straws it's been a rough winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Just noticed that JB hugged the Euro this weekend east coast storm bust, and got burned when it finally shifted east to match the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 geos really clutching at straws it's been a rough winter Yep - not the roughest though. Just a little bit of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12z GEFS mean is south of the op, especially noticeable at about 72 hours and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12z GEFS mean is south of the op, especially noticeable at about 72 hours and beyond. A good 100 miles south and about 8mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Just ran BUFKIT for the 12Z NAM at Kitchener-Waterloo and we would be looking at nearly 22 hours of freezing rain, on about 0.6" liquid. YYZ proper would have more a mix of SN, PL and ZR throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Haven't seen a frame but I'll go out on a sturdy limb and say the EURO comes north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 EURO Low west of Dodge City at 36 hours. Frontal position south of Chicago and low near Wichita at 48 hours. F-gen band breaks out along US 20 again in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Low south of KC at 60 hours. Southern WI gets clobbered again by the looks of it. Freezing line into the northern suburbs by 1pm Wed. Maybe 10 miles difference in placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Still south and slower. Between KC and Columbia along I-70 at 66hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Not a big fan of "seasonal trends" argument to be honest, especially when we're talking about individual storms and not larger scale pattern related things. As an example, winter 14-15 was not doing well until the Feb 1 storm. Regardless of changes in surface low intensity from here on out, band of 1-2 feet is nearly a lock. Not a strong argument at all, but a season that has barely cracked 20" has left me bitter. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Then goes over SPI to north of Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Just ran BUFKIT for the 12Z NAM at Kitchener-Waterloo and we would be looking at nearly 22 hours of freezing rain, on about 0.6" liquid. YYZ proper would have more a mix of SN, PL and ZR throughout the event. I really hope for your sake, that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Then goes over SPI to north of Indy Looks fairly close to last couple runs. Maybe like 20 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Slightly north. Main difference is that the 850 mb temps get above freezing up to Kenosha, instead of the middle of Lake County. Toronto still hanging onto big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I really hope for your sake, that doesn't verify.It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this time around.If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it. (Geos?? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere though. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this system. If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it. Looking at the NAM, Euro, and GEM combined, it is quite evident our area and into the GTA could be in for a significant ice event. Setup is really quite incredible. And yes, the last event I was just east of Belwood Lake (Fergus) and got 2cm ice accretion and quite a lot of damage which would have been far worse if there was more wind. That event was much more localized because it was heavily dependent on topography, and this event looks like it could be a more widespread, high-impact ice event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Challenging/high ramification forecast for the offices up north. Does the Euro keep baby stepping north toward other guidance, does the other guidance start to shift south? Good thing is there's still time to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It would suck but I'll admit I'm a bit of a ZR junkie so would enjoy it for the meteorological significance. Obviously not going to cheer it on though. Set up reeks of freezing rain somewhere. Still managed about 6mm of freezing rain with the last system and there was virtually no arctic high compared to this time around. If someone has a Euro freezing rain map I would love to see it. (Geos?? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 As I feared and expected, the euro is slowly backing northward. The front has made less southward progress each of the last two runs. It's not going to come back south, so good luck to those farther north. Climatology is very much against areas south of northern Iowa this late in the season. Big snows are quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Hasn't been a single storm this winter that Milwaukee hasn't sweated some kind of cluster f with models and tracks. O well it's not like we didn't know how this would end early..just sit back and enjoy from afar once again. Hopefully the big totals actually can verify for once to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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